本文選題：蘇州茶葉 + 氣象災(zāi)害��； 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)保險對于提高農(nóng)民的收入,保障農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)生活以及促進(jìn)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有著重要的作用,對發(fā)達(dá)國家來說,農(nóng)業(yè)保險早已成為重要的調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的工具。我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀卻是起步晚,發(fā)展非常緩慢,然而,農(nóng)業(yè)在我國是第一產(chǎn)業(yè),是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ),農(nóng)業(yè)保險的發(fā)展跟不上農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的需求,這是一個嚴(yán)峻的問題,這主要是由于我國農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展是傳統(tǒng)的小農(nóng)經(jīng)濟(jì)家庭式,不符合傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)保險的發(fā)展模式。于是,本文提出發(fā)展有別于傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)保險的農(nóng)業(yè)氣象指數(shù)保險,這對解決我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險發(fā)展過程中遇到的難題十分重要。 蘇州市是著名的碧螺春茶葉產(chǎn)區(qū),茶葉經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出已經(jīng)成為蘇州市農(nóng)業(yè)收入的主要來源之一。然而近年來,氣象災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,蘇州市茶葉在氣象災(zāi)害的影響下下,造成產(chǎn)量的減產(chǎn),采摘的延期以及茶樹的死亡等,因此在蘇州市推廣農(nóng)業(yè)氣象指數(shù)保險十分必要。 首先本文研究了對茶葉萌芽生長的影響最為厲害的氣象災(zāi)害,通過實(shí)地探訪茶葉種植戶,發(fā)現(xiàn)氣溫和降水量對茶葉的產(chǎn)量有著很大的影響,茶葉只有在合適的溫度和濕度條件下才能健康生長,利用1997年2011年蘇州市三地區(qū)的氣象數(shù)據(jù)和產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析,得出茶葉產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測方程。由于碧螺春茶葉采摘的獨(dú)特性,雖然茶葉全年都能采摘,但通常碧螺春都是春季采摘,因此,蘇州市茶葉最易在夏季受到干旱災(zāi)害,冬末春初受到冬季凍害的影響以及在春季,尤其是清明前后遭受連陰雨災(zāi)害。本文利用1997年2011年蘇州市區(qū)15年內(nèi)的氣象數(shù)據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)三種茶葉災(zāi)害指數(shù),利用蘇州市茶葉的產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算獲得相對氣象產(chǎn)量以及減產(chǎn)率,建立茶葉氣象指數(shù)模型;在此基礎(chǔ)上還要計(jì)算保險產(chǎn)品的保險費(fèi)率,根據(jù)免賠額,保險費(fèi)率來設(shè)計(jì)蘇州市茶葉氣象指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品。最后對茶葉氣象指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品的推廣方案進(jìn)行了研究。
[Abstract]:Agricultural insurance plays an important role in improving the income of farmers, ensuring the production and life of farmers and promoting the development of the rural economy. For the developed countries, agricultural insurance has already become an important tool for regulating the economy. The development of agricultural insurance in China is a late start and a very slow development. However, agriculture is the first in China. Industry is the basis of the national economy. The development of agricultural insurance can not keep up with the demand of agricultural modernization. This is a serious problem. This is mainly due to the development of our agriculture is a traditional small peasant economy family, which does not conform to the development model of traditional agricultural insurance. The number insurance is very important to solve the problems encountered in the development of agricultural insurance in China.
Suzhou city is a famous Biluochun tea producing area, and the economic output of tea has become one of the main sources of agricultural income in Suzhou. However, in recent years, the meteorological disasters have occurred frequently. In Suzhou City, the production of tea, the delay of harvest and the death of tea trees are caused by the meteorological disasters. Therefore, the agricultural gas is popularized in Suzhou. It's very necessary to look like index insurance.
First of all, this paper studies the most severe meteorological disasters affecting the bud growth of tea. By visiting the tea growers in the field, it is found that the temperature and precipitation have a great influence on the yield of tea. The tea can grow healthily only under the appropriate temperature and humidity conditions, and the meteorological data of the three regions of Suzhou in 2011 1997 are used. According to the correlation analysis of yield data, the prediction equation of tea yield is obtained. Because of the uniqueness of Biluochun tea extraction, although tea can be picked all the year round, but usually Biluochun is plucking in spring. Therefore, Suzhou tea is most vulnerable to drought in summer, the effect of winter frost damage at the end of winter and early spring, especially in spring. In this paper, three kinds of tea disaster index were designed by meteorological data in Suzhou city of Suzhou in 2011 1997. The relative meteorological output and yield reduction rate were calculated by using the data of Suzhou tea production, and the tea meteorological index model was established. On this basis, the insurance premium rate of insurance products should be calculated. According to the deductible and premium rate, we design the tea weather index insurance products of Suzhou. Finally, we have studied the extension plan of tea meteorological index insurance products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.66;S42

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