本文選題：保險消費 + 經(jīng)濟增長��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟改革的深入,我國對經(jīng)濟增長的倚重開始發(fā)生變化,擴大國內(nèi)消費需求,促進經(jīng)濟增長由投資向消費轉(zhuǎn)移成為一個重要的訴求。消費是經(jīng)濟活動和發(fā)展的基本內(nèi)容和目的,因此在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和研究中占有至關重要的地位。近年來,消費金融在國內(nèi)快速發(fā)展,各種金融資產(chǎn)與服務得到極大的豐富。保險消費作為一種金融消費方式,在我國居民的家庭資產(chǎn)配置中扮演著越來越重要的角色。當前我國的保險業(yè)快速發(fā)展,居民們的保險消費需求明顯增加,至2012年止,全年我國保險公司原保費收入達到15488億元,相比上年增長8.0%,保險密度和保險深度也體現(xiàn)出上升有趨勢。與此同時,我國經(jīng)濟也保持良好的增長勢頭,到2012年止,我國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值已經(jīng)達到519322億元,比上年增長7.8%,雖然較以往有所回落,但仍處于較高發(fā)展水平,遠遠高于世界其它國家或地區(qū)。保險消費與經(jīng)濟增長都處于快速發(fā)展的最佳時期,我國保險消費對經(jīng)濟的拉動作用值得關注。 在大量的研究金融業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長的文獻中,人們比較關注銀行,證券與經(jīng)濟增長的相互作用,往往忽視了保險業(yè)在經(jīng)濟增長中的促進作用。然而,一方面由于保險業(yè)與其它金融服務業(yè)一樣具備融通資金,優(yōu)化資源配置的功能,另一方面保險還具備其它金融行業(yè)不具備的風險保障和社會管理的功能。因而對保險業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究也是非常有必要的。 國內(nèi)學者在對保險業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究,大都還是粗略式將保險作為一個整體的變量,而沒有充分考慮到保險消費的結(jié)構(gòu)上的差異,即沒有考慮人身保險消費與財產(chǎn)保險消費在經(jīng)濟促進作用的不同。這樣的研究容易忽視我國當前保險消費對經(jīng)濟增長的作用的差別,從而得出不正確的結(jié)論。在我國當前保險業(yè)迅速發(fā)展但仍處于初級發(fā)展水平的大背景下,有必要認真考察財產(chǎn)保險消費與人身保險消費的差異性。從我國保險業(yè)的整體水平來看,保險的覆蓋率還很低,這主要表現(xiàn)在保險深度與保險密度等指標值較小,保險消費水平在不同的區(qū)域間發(fā)展極不平衡。另一個方面則表現(xiàn)在居民的保險消費結(jié)構(gòu)很不合理,即有財產(chǎn)保險消費與人身保險消費的不均衡,也有人身保險內(nèi)部的投資型保險與保障型保險的失衡、人壽保險與健康意外險的失衡,這種失衡充分反映了我國保險消費的落后。 對保險消費對經(jīng)濟增長效應的研究具有理論與現(xiàn)實的意義。在理論上從消費的角度出發(fā)來研究保險與經(jīng)濟增長的關系的文獻還不多,這樣的研究有利于促進學科間的整合。特別是在國內(nèi)對金融發(fā)展對其關系的清楚梳理,能夠認識到保險消費在經(jīng)濟增長的理論價值。保險消費作為現(xiàn)代居民生活消費的一部分,它一方面表現(xiàn)出一般消費的相似點,另一方面又表現(xiàn)出異于一般消費的特點。有關消費促進經(jīng)濟增長的研究已經(jīng)導出不窮,不過保險消費由于具有其獨特特征,并不能簡單地套用以往的結(jié)論。保險消費對于保險業(yè)發(fā)展具有重要的作用,保險消費需求的旺盛與否以及保險消費結(jié)構(gòu)的變化都會影響到整個保險業(yè)的發(fā)展。 在本文的文獻綜述部分,詳細介紹了當前國際國內(nèi)對保險發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關系研究的權(quán)威文獻,通過認真閱讀這些研究,在介紹的同時,本文還做了比較全面的評析,對一些研究中的不足提出了自己的看法,總得來說也比較清楚了梳理了相關方面的研究,并對未來的研究方向做出了自己的預判 接下來的部分,本文從消費的角度出發(fā),首先對保險消費進行了重新定義,本文認為,保險是一種服務型消費品,保險消費實質(zhì)上是一種服務型消費,是人們?yōu)榱藵M足保險需求而購買或使用保險產(chǎn)品或保險服務的消費過程。這樣的一種新定義,不但規(guī)定了保險消費的特殊性即是為了保險需求,也更準確的表明了保險消費的主體。這個定義是本文根據(jù)以往的研究以及自己的總結(jié)歸納而成,與以前研究中的“保險消費是消費者為了保障生命財產(chǎn)安全,滿足其安全需求的一種消費”相比,在意思的表達上更加準確,在涉及了內(nèi)容方面更加全面。本文還對保險消費與一般消費進行了詳細的對比。即提及了兩者的聯(lián)系,這兩者相互影響,共同作用構(gòu)成我國居民日常消費。對保險消費的主體、對象、實質(zhì)、特征做了入微的闡述,并且重點區(qū)別了保險消費與一般消費,相對一般消費來說,保險消費具有消費對象的特殊性、消費結(jié)果的不確定性、消費過程的互助性、雙向選擇性等特點,通過這些分析,可以對保險消費有一個比較清晰的認識。 在保險消費與經(jīng)濟增長關系的這一部分,首先本文分析了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展促進保險消費的增加主要是通過以下幾個原因來實現(xiàn)：一是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不斷產(chǎn)生新的風險,風險的變化與增加,引起人們保險消費需求的變化與增加；二是收入或財富增加引起保險消費需求變化。三是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展導致人們消費習慣的變化、以及壽命的延長都會增加人們對保險消費的需求。緊接而來的是,本文在保險消費對經(jīng)濟增長效應的分析。在這里本文主要通過三個功能以及四個渠道來對其分析。三個功能指的是經(jīng)濟損失補償功能、社會管理功能,以及保險消費促進儲蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化的功能。很多研究不太重視保險的社會管理功能,本文在這里對保險的社會管理功能如何促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展做了簡單的分析。四個渠道就是指保險消費通過消費渠道、資金融通渠道、出口渠道以及技術(shù)渠道四方面來發(fā)揮其經(jīng)濟的促進作用。本文在這里還專門提到了財產(chǎn)保險消費與人身保險消費對經(jīng)濟增長的作用機制的差別：人身保險消費主要通過其儲蓄功能來實現(xiàn),而財產(chǎn)保險則是通過損失補償?shù)臋C理促進經(jīng)濟的增長�？疾斓絻烧咦饔脵C制的不同,可以預期兩者對經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生的影響也是不一樣的。 在實證部分,本文對保險消費促進經(jīng)濟增長的作用進行了較為詳細與全面的分析,充分考慮到財產(chǎn)保險消費與人身保險消費對經(jīng)濟增長作用機制的差異。文中采用1986-2011年的數(shù)據(jù),通過建立時間序列對保險消費與經(jīng)濟增長進行經(jīng)驗分析,在分析的過程中,同時將反映技術(shù)的變量高中升學率、反映資本存量的人均資本。實證結(jié)果顯示,財產(chǎn)保險消費對我國經(jīng)濟增長有比較顯著的促進作用,而人身保險消費則表現(xiàn)出負的作用。本文對這個回歸結(jié)果進行了充分的解釋,同時對與以往研究結(jié)論上的差異也給出了合理的理由。本文認為財產(chǎn)保險之所表現(xiàn)出比較顯著的促進作用在于其風險保障功能的發(fā)揮與經(jīng)濟的直接關聯(lián)性比較強。而人身保險消費表現(xiàn)出抑制作用,其原因則比較復雜：其一在于我國人身保險的快速增長有一定的泡沫性,其二可能是我國監(jiān)管對保險資金的運用限制過于嚴格,造成保險資金的運用渠道狹窄,運用效率不高。除此之外,當前,我國人身保險消費比較熱衷于投資型的產(chǎn)品,而不是保障型的產(chǎn)品,這樣形成了保險業(yè)與銀行、證券等行業(yè)的競爭關系而不是互補格局,這樣金融協(xié)同作用無法得到有效發(fā)揮,也可能會影響經(jīng)濟的增長。 在本文的末尾,根據(jù)財產(chǎn)保險與人身保險的差異,以及在前文的實證結(jié)果,最后提出了幾點針對性很強的解決思路與建議。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新之處主要有以下幾點： 一、論文選題有較強的現(xiàn)實性。保險并非一個新生物,對保險與經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究也有不少,但從消費角度來研究保險與經(jīng)濟增長關系的文獻還很少。在當前力促經(jīng)濟增長由投資向消費方向轉(zhuǎn)變的大背景下,消費金融風生水起,保險消費作為其中一個部分,其對經(jīng)濟的作用在當前研究中還沒有受到重視,大部分研究都集中在銀行與證券行業(yè)。再者,我國目前實行的金融分業(yè)經(jīng)營與監(jiān)管,對保險消費研究的重視有可能會更那看清銀行、證券、保險三大金融板塊在經(jīng)濟增長拼圖上的作用,掌握其特點,更好地促進金融協(xié)同作用的發(fā)生。 二、本文在研究角度上,選取的是保險消費,而不是整個保險行業(yè)。首先,保險消費與居民的日常生活密切相關,保險消費需求的旺盛與否以及消費需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變化都會反映到保險業(yè)的發(fā)展當中去,而人們的保險消費活動實際上就是對保險產(chǎn)品與服務的消費上,在實證分析時,變量的選取將會變得容易。許多關于保險業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究中,通常選取保費或保險深度與經(jīng)濟變量做實證分析,用保費收入或保險深度來代替保險業(yè)的發(fā)展水平實際上是不太科學的,有可能導致結(jié)論的偏差。保險消費直接影響到保險業(yè)的發(fā)展,從消費的角度出發(fā),能夠?qū)⑽覀兊哪抗饩劢沟较M者身上,更多的關注消費者的保險需求,而不是像現(xiàn)在這樣先創(chuàng)造一個保險產(chǎn)品出來,再說服他們接受。由供給導向需求導向轉(zhuǎn)變,能夠更好的促進保險業(yè)的優(yōu)質(zhì)發(fā)展。 三、本文在研究中考慮了財產(chǎn)保險與人身保險的差異,而不同于以往研究中的不做區(qū)分�？紤]到人身保險消費更多的是通過其儲蓄功能來促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,而財產(chǎn)保險消費則因其損失補償功能對經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生正向作用。在實證當中,本文將其區(qū)分,并且得出的結(jié)論很好的體現(xiàn)了我國當前保險消費的現(xiàn)狀。在國內(nèi),像這樣區(qū)分兩者差異的研究還不多。 本文研究的不足： 在本文的研究中,本文選取的數(shù)據(jù)范圍為1986-2011年,數(shù)據(jù)樣本量可能會影響到實證回歸的結(jié)果,人身保險消費在近些年來增幅很大,遠遠高于早些年的幅度,這種爆發(fā)式的人身保險需求的增加,有可能并沒有真實的反應經(jīng)濟增長,可能會導致結(jié)果出現(xiàn)一定的偏差。本文在研究過程中,沒有將銀行變量、證券變量納入其中,聯(lián)合考察金融變量對經(jīng)濟增長的影響,這可能會導致夸大財產(chǎn)保險對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's economic reform, our country's reliance on economic growth has begun to change, expanding domestic consumption demand and promoting the transfer of economic growth from investment to consumption has become an important appeal. Consumption is the basic content and purpose of economic activities and development, so it occupies a vital position in the economic development and research. In recent years, consumer finance has developed rapidly in China, and all kinds of financial assets and services have been greatly enriched. As a way of financial consumption, insurance consumption has played an increasingly important role in the allocation of household assets in our country. The current insurance industry in China has developed rapidly, and the demand for insurance consumption of the people is obviously increased to the end of 2012. In the whole year, the original premium income of our insurance company reached 15488 billion yuan, which was up 8% compared with the previous year. The insurance density and insurance depth also showed an upward trend. At the same time, China's economy also maintained a good momentum of growth. By the end of 2012, China's gross domestic product has reached 519322 billion yuan, up 7.8% over the previous year, although it has been more than the previous year. It is still at a high level of development, far higher than the other countries or regions in the world. Both the insurance consumption and economic growth are at the best period of rapid development, and the effect of China's insurance consumption on the economy is worth paying attention to.
In a large number of literature on financial and economic growth, people are more concerned about the interaction of banks, securities and economic growth, often ignoring the role of the insurance industry in economic growth. On the one hand, on the one hand, the insurance industry has the same financing as other financial services, the function of optimizing the allocation of resources, and the other, on the other hand. Risk also has the functions of risk protection and social management that other financial industries do not have. Therefore, it is also necessary to study the relationship between the insurance industry and economic growth.
In the study of the relationship between the insurance industry and the economic growth, the domestic scholars mostly take the insurance as a whole variable, but not fully consider the difference in the structure of the insurance consumption, that is, it does not consider the difference between the personal insurance consumption and the property insurance consumption in the economic promotion. In the background of the rapid development of insurance industry but still at the level of primary development, it is necessary to carefully examine the difference between the consumption of property insurance and the consumption of personal insurance. This is mainly manifested in small insurance depth and insurance density, and the development of insurance consumption is extremely uneven among different regions. The other is that the insurance consumption structure of the residents is very unreasonable, that is, the imbalance between the consumption of property insurance and the personal insurance consumption, and the investment insurance and guarantee within the personal insurance. The imbalance of type insurance and the imbalance between life insurance and health accident insurance fully reflect the backwardness of China's insurance consumption.
The research on the effect of insurance consumption on economic growth is of theoretical and practical significance. In theory, there are few literature on the relationship between insurance and economic growth from the angle of consumption. This kind of research will help to promote the integration of the subjects. Insurance consumption is the theoretical value of economic growth. As part of the living consumption of modern residents, insurance consumption shows the similarity of general consumption on the one hand, and on the other hand it is different from the characteristics of general consumption. The research on consumption promoting economic growth has been exported, but the insurance consumption has its unique characteristics, It is not easy to apply the previous conclusions. Insurance consumption plays an important role in the development of the insurance industry. The exuberant consumption of the insurance consumption and the change of the insurance consumption structure will affect the development of the whole insurance industry.
In the literature review part of this paper, it introduces the authoritative literature on the study of the relationship between insurance development and economic growth in detail. Through careful reading of these studies, the article has also made a more comprehensive evaluation, and put forward his own views on some of the deficiencies in the study, and it is also clear and clear. The related research is done, and the future research direction is predicted.
The following part, from the point of view of consumption, this article first redefines the insurance consumption. In this paper, it is considered that insurance is a kind of service-oriented consumer goods, and the insurance consumption is essentially a kind of service type consumption. It is a new consumption process for people to buy or use insurance products or insurance services in order to meet the needs of insurance. The definition not only stipulates that the particularity of insurance consumption is for insurance demand, but also more accurately shows the main body of insurance consumption. This definition is based on the previous research and the summary of its own, and the "insurance consumption" in the previous study is to ensure the safety of life and property to meet the safety needs of the consumer. Compared with the content, this article also makes a detailed comparison between the insurance consumption and the general consumption. It also refers to the relationship between the two. The two influences each other. The common effect constitutes the daily consumption of the residents in our country. The subject, object, substance, and characteristics of the insurance consumption are done. In this paper, the insurance consumption and general consumption are distinguished, and relative to the general consumption, the insurance consumption is characterized by the particularity of the consumption object, the uncertainty of the consumption result, the mutual assistance of the consumption process and the two-way selectivity. Through these analyses, we can have a clearer understanding of the insurance consumption.
In this part of the relationship between insurance consumption and economic growth, first of all, this paper analyses that the increase of economic development and insurance consumption is realized mainly through the following reasons: first, the economic development has new risks, the change and increase of the risk, the change and increase of the consumption demand of the people; two, income or wealth. The increase in the demand for insurance consumption changes. Three is that economic development leads to changes in people's consumption habits, and the prolongation of life will increase the demand for insurance consumption. The following is the analysis of the effect of insurance consumption on economic growth. Here, this paper mainly analyzes it through three functions and four channels. The three function refers to the function of compensation for economic loss, the function of social management, and the function of the insurance consumption to promote the conversion of savings to investment. Many studies do not pay much attention to the social management function of insurance. Here, this paper makes a simple analysis of how the social management function of insurance promotes economic development. The four channel is the consumption of insurance. In this paper, the difference between property insurance consumption and personal insurance consumption on economic growth is also specifically mentioned in the four aspects of consumption channels, financing channels, export channels and technical channels. Through the mechanism of loss compensation to promote economic growth, it can be expected that the two will have different effects on the economy.
In the empirical part, this paper makes a more detailed and comprehensive analysis on the role of insurance consumption to promote economic growth, and fully considers the difference between property insurance consumption and personal insurance consumption on the mechanism of economic growth. In this paper, the experience of insurance consumption and economic growth is divided by setting up a time series of 1986-2011 years data. In the process of analysis, it will reflect the high school rate of high school and the per capita capital of capital stock. The empirical results show that the property insurance consumption has a significant role in promoting the economic growth of our country, while the personal insurance consumption shows a negative effect. It also gives a reasonable reason for the difference from the previous research conclusions. This paper holds that the property insurance has a more significant role in promoting its risk protection function and its direct relationship with the economy. The rapid growth of insurance has a certain bubble, and the other may be that the application of insurance funds is too restrictive in China's supervision, resulting in the narrow use of insurance funds and low utilization efficiency. In addition, at present, China's personal insurance consumption is more keen on investment type products than the guarantee type products, thus forming insurance. The competitive relationship between industry and banks, securities and other industries is not a complementary pattern, so that financial synergy can not be brought into full play, and it may also affect economic growth.
At the end of this article, according to the difference between property insurance and personal insurance, and the empirical results in the previous article, some ideas and suggestions are put forward in the end.
The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:
First, the thesis has a strong reality. Insurance is not a new creature, and there are many studies on the relationship between insurance and economic growth. However, there are few literature on the relationship between insurance and economic growth from the angle of consumption. As a part of it, its role in the economy has not been paid much attention to in the current research. Most of the research is concentrated in the bank and the securities industry. Furthermore, the current financial division management and supervision in China, the attention to the research of the insurance consumption may be more likely to see the three major financial sectors of the bank, securities and insurance. The role of long puzzle plays a better role in promoting the role of financial synergy.
Two, in this paper, we choose the insurance consumption, not the whole insurance industry. First, the insurance consumption is closely related to the daily life of the residents, the exuberant consumption demand and the change of the consumption demand structure will all reflect the development of the insurance industry, and the people's insurance consumption activity is actually the protection of the insurance. In the case of empirical analysis, the selection of variables will become easier in the case of the consumption of insurance products and services. In the study of the relationship between insurance and economic growth, the empirical analysis of premium or insurance depth and economic variables is usually selected. In fact, it is not scientific to use premium income or insurance depth to replace the development level of insurance industry. It may lead to the deviation of the conclusion. The insurance consumption directly affects the development of the insurance industry. From the point of view of consumption, we can focus our attention on the consumer, pay more attention to the consumer's insurance demand, rather than create an insurance product like it now, and take them to accept. Change, can better promote the premium development of the insurance industry.
Three, in this study, the difference between property insurance and personal insurance is considered, but it is different from the previous study. Considering that the personal insurance consumption is more to promote economic development through its savings function, and the property insurance consumption has a positive effect on the economy because of its loss compensation function. The conclusion drawn from the conclusion shows the current situation of insurance consumption in China.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows:
In this study, the range of data selected in this paper is 1986-2011 years, and the data sample size may affect the results of empirical regression. Personal insurance consumption has increased greatly in recent years, far higher than that in earlier years. This explosion type of personal insurance demand is likely to have no real response to economic growth. There is a certain deviation in the result.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842;F124.1

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