本文選題：新型農村社會養(yǎng)老保險　切入點：斷點回歸設計　出處：《山西財經大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：新農保政策自從試點以來,受到了各界的關注,但是這項政策是否實現了最初的目標,還有待實證結果的進一步驗證。因此,本文使用CHARLS數據庫,運用斷點回歸以及傾向得分匹配方法,估計了該項政策的實施效果。全文分成七個章節(jié),第一章是緒論;第二章是文獻綜述,這一章對相關文獻進行分塊整理,最后說明后文將要做的深化與完善;第三章是理論分析,就養(yǎng)老保險相關的理論進行分類整理;第四章是宏觀分析,從宏觀層面分析了政策覆蓋及保障情況;第五章是基于斷點回歸方法的實證分析;第六章是基于傾向得分匹配的實證分析;第七章是結論與政策建議。本文的結果顯示,在收入方面,領取養(yǎng)老金能夠提高家庭收入,使得經濟保障能力增強。進一步研究表明,將居民收入分組之后,養(yǎng)老金對低收入群體的影響效應最強;對收入中等群體影響程度次之,對高收入群體的影響效應最弱;在消費方面,參保在一定程度上刺激了家庭消費,支出額有所增加,從整體上看,新農保政策在農村地區(qū)的實施,增加了居民信心,人們對這項政策期望很高。另外,對老年人養(yǎng)老模式的影響結果表明,在居住安排偏好方面,新農保使得老年人降低了與子女同住的可能性,并且由k近鄰匹配得到的降低程度最大,與子女同住的可能性降低了7.9個百分點。在代際支持金額方面,新農保養(yǎng)老金增加了老人與子女之間的代際支持金額,并沒有對子女代際支持產生“擠出”效應,代際支持金額的增加,一方面體現了新農保養(yǎng)老金的保障額度仍然有限,并沒有“擠出”子女代際支持;另一方面也可能像一些文獻中提到的那樣,與子女同住能夠實現家庭的規(guī)模經濟效應,能夠從子女那里得到更多隱性經濟支持,這種支持人們一般不會精確計算金錢投入。參保之后有些老人選擇獨居,這部分經濟支持將會突顯出來,因此會出現代際支持金額增加的情況。在養(yǎng)老資金來源方面,五種匹配方法得到的結果略有差異,但都體現了新農保使得農村老年人的養(yǎng)老資金來自家庭的可能性下降,大約降低6個百分點,并且在95%的置信水平上顯著。這說明農村老年人的養(yǎng)老資金來源不再單純的依靠儲蓄或者子女供給,也從一定程度上依靠養(yǎng)老金或者商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險。綜上所述,盡管取得了一定成果,但新農保政策目前的保障水平依然較低,新農保的影響效果十分有限,為了使這項惠農政策具有可持續(xù)性,還有很長的一段路需要走,需要探求與市場經濟發(fā)展相適應的政策實施方案,真正實現農村地區(qū)老有所養(yǎng)。
[Abstract]:Since the pilot, the new rural insurance policy has attracted much attention from all walks of life. However, whether the policy has achieved its initial goal or not has yet to be further verified by the empirical results. Therefore, this paper uses CHARLS database. Using breakpoint regression and tendency score matching method, the paper estimates the effect of the policy. The paper is divided into seven chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, the second chapter is the literature review, this chapter classifies the relevant documents. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis, the related theory of pension insurance is sorted out; the 4th chapter is the macro analysis, from the macro level to analyze the policy coverage and security situation; Chapter 5th is empirical analysis based on breakpoint regression method; Chapter 6th is empirical analysis based on propensity score matching; Chapter 7th is conclusion and policy recommendations. Further research shows that pension has the strongest effect on the low-income group, followed by the middle income group and the high-income group. In terms of consumption, participation in insurance has stimulated household consumption to a certain extent, and the amount of expenditure has increased. On the whole, the implementation of the new rural insurance policy in rural areas has increased the confidence of the residents, and people have high expectations for this policy. The results show that, in the aspect of living arrangement preference, the new rural insurance makes the elderly less likely to live with their children, and the degree of reduction obtained by the k-nearest neighbor matching is the greatest. The possibility of living with their children was reduced by 7.9 percentage points. In terms of the amount of intergenerational support, the New Rural Insurance Pension increased the amount of intergenerational support between the elderly and the children, and did not have an "crowding out" effect on the intergenerational support of the children. The increase in the amount of intergenerational support reflects, on the one hand, that the coverage of the new rural pension is still limited and that it does not "crowd out" the intergenerational support of children; on the other hand, it may also be as mentioned in some literature. Living with your children can achieve the economies of scale of your family, and you can get more hidden financial support from your children. This kind of support generally doesn't accurately calculate your money. Some old people choose to live alone after the insurance. This part of the financial support will be highlighted, so there will be an increase in the amount of intergenerational support. In terms of the source of pension funds, the results of the five matching methods are slightly different. But they all reflect the fact that the new rural insurance has reduced the likelihood that the old-age pension funds of the rural elderly will come from their families, which is about 6 percentage points lower. And it is significant in the confidence level of 95%. This shows that the old people in rural areas no longer rely solely on savings or child supply, but also depend on pension or commercial old-age insurance to some extent. To sum up, Although some achievements have been made, the current level of protection of the new rural insurance policy is still relatively low, and the impact of the new rural insurance policy is very limited. In order to make the policy sustainable, there is still a long way to go. Need to explore the development of market economy in line with the implementation of policies to truly achieve a sense of security in rural areas.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67;F323.89

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