發(fā)布時間：2018-03-20 01:34

  本文選題：人口老齡化　切入點：養(yǎng)老金收支模型　出處：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)過長期改革、完善,我國已經(jīng)初步建立起與市場經(jīng)濟體制相適應(yīng)的、社會統(tǒng)籌和個人賬戶相結(jié)合的統(tǒng)一的城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度。但是,由于轉(zhuǎn)軌成本無法在短期得到有效解決、制度設(shè)計不盡完善以及人口老齡化加劇等因素,未來中國的養(yǎng)老金支付將面臨巨大風(fēng)險,引發(fā)了社會各界對該制度合理性的廣泛關(guān)注。城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度的建立和完善有助于保障職工退休后的基本生活,維護(hù)老年人的合法權(quán)益和社會的穩(wěn)定,也有助于促進(jìn)國家財政預(yù)算制度的不斷完善。因此,研究城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的理論價值和現(xiàn)實意義,對未來一個較長時期內(nèi)城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金收支規(guī)模及其收支平衡趨勢進(jìn)行精算預(yù)測對于政府提前調(diào)整政策,應(yīng)對可能出現(xiàn)的城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老金問題具有重大的參考價值。本文采用人口發(fā)展模型,運用matlab軟件,對云南省城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支進(jìn)行了科學(xué)預(yù)測,選擇符合云南省實際情況的人口指標(biāo),預(yù)測出未來30年云南省城鎮(zhèn)人口及其結(jié)構(gòu)變動趨勢;在現(xiàn)行政策下建立養(yǎng)老保險收支模型,測算得出城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支平衡趨勢。基本結(jié)論為城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金將在2020年首次出現(xiàn)缺口,養(yǎng)老金平衡曲線在2024年首次達(dá)到波谷,養(yǎng)老金缺口規(guī)模為2467.11億元,在30年間將出現(xiàn)三次拐點,從2028年以后城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金將持續(xù)出現(xiàn)缺口;城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險基金累計缺口的絕對值占當(dāng)年財政支出的百分比將在10%左右,養(yǎng)老金缺口將極大影響財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)及城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保障制度的可持續(xù)性。采用敏感性分析法對影響城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老金運行的“五普數(shù)據(jù)”進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)果表明養(yǎng)老金貢獻(xiàn)率、養(yǎng)老金調(diào)整指數(shù)、養(yǎng)老金替代率、退休年齡等因素將直接影響城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老金缺口規(guī)模和城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度可持續(xù)性。本文建議政府從以下幾個方面制定符合云南省省情的城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險政策:完善退休制度,嚴(yán)控“低齡退休”;增強收入能力,加強宣傳、提高繳費意識;合理區(qū)分人群,延長退休年齡;健全收支制度,推動四本預(yù)算銜接、防止冒領(lǐng)挪用;規(guī)范養(yǎng)老金投資管理制度,提高養(yǎng)老金投資收益率。
[Abstract]:After a long period of reform, perfect, China has initially established to adapt to market economy system, the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees unified social pooling and individual accounts. However, due to the transition cost can not be effectively solved in the short term, system design is not perfect, the aging population and other factors, the future Chinese the pension payment will face a huge risk, caused the social from all walks of life to the rationality of system wide attention. The basic old-age insurance system for urban employees establish and improve the protection of workers after retirement of the basic life, safeguard the legitimate interests of the elderly and social stability, but also help to promote the continuous national financial budget system perfect. Therefore, has important theoretical value and practical significance for sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system of urban workers, in the future a long period of time Urban workers pension insurance fund balance scale and balance trend of actuarial forecast for the government ahead of adjustment policies, pension problems should likely have great reference value. This paper uses the model of population development, the use of MATLAB software, to make a scientific prediction of Yunnan province urban basic pension insurance fund balance, with the actual population index Yunnan Province, forecast the next 30 years in Yunnan province and its urban population structure change; the establishment of pension balance model under the existing policy, estimates that the balance trend of fundamental pension insurance fund for urban workers. The basic conclusion is the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers will for the first time in 2020 for the first time to the pension gap, the equilibrium curve in the trough in 2024, the pension gap size of 246 billion 711 million yuan, there will be three times in 30 years. Since 2028, urban basic old-age insurance fund gap will continue to appear; the absolute value of the cumulative shortfall of urban basic old-age insurance fund accounting for the percentage of fiscal expenditure will be around 10%, the pension gap will greatly influence the sustainability of the basic pension system of fiscal expenditure structure and urban workers. By using the sensitivity analysis method of influence urban workers pension operation "five census data" was studied. The results show that the pension contribution rate, the pension adjustment index, pension replacement rate, retirement age and other factors will directly affect the sustainability of urban workers pension gap and the scale of urban workers' basic pension insurance system. This paper suggests that the government from the following aspects in line with the development of basic endowment insurance for urban workers Yunnan Province: improve the retirement system, strictly controlling the "low age retirement"; enhance the earning capacity, and Strong propaganda, improve payment consciousness; reasonable distinction between people, to extend the retirement age; improve the payments system, to promote the four budget cohesion, to prevent misappropriation of impersonator pension investment management; standard system, improve the pension investment rate of return.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67

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