本文選題：動物疫病　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的快速發(fā)展,我國居民動物食品消費(fèi)大幅增加,由此推動了畜禽產(chǎn)業(yè)的高速發(fā)展。截止2012年底,我國已發(fā)展成為畜禽產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)的第一大國,畜禽產(chǎn)業(yè)在改善國人食物結(jié)構(gòu)、增加農(nóng)民收入及保障食物供給安全方面發(fā)揮了越來越大的作用。但與此相伴隨的動物疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題也愈演愈烈,逐漸上升成為制約我國畜牧業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展的首要因素,并且還引發(fā)了較為嚴(yán)重的公共衛(wèi)生安全危機(jī)。生豬保險(xiǎn)作為生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的有效手段,成功地實(shí)現(xiàn)將農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在全社會范圍內(nèi)予以分?jǐn)?在保障我國養(yǎng)殖業(yè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,控制疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面發(fā)揮了重要的作用。但是我國生豬保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展過程中也存在著一定的問題,其中最為關(guān)鍵的便是養(yǎng)殖戶對生豬保險(xiǎn)有效需求不足的難題,造成這種現(xiàn)象有諸多方面的原因,而根據(jù)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的相關(guān)研究,生豬保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)制定不合理,導(dǎo)致生豬保險(xiǎn)價(jià)格與價(jià)值出現(xiàn)較大的偏離,是致使農(nóng)戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購買意愿較低的主要原因之一。因此,本文將圍繞上述問題展開研究,首先從疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度,構(gòu)建了我國生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對我國生豬疫病災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了有效度量,旨在為我國生豬保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的制定提供一定的理論支撐；其次,從養(yǎng)殖戶的角度出發(fā),根據(jù)實(shí)地調(diào)研所獲得的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證方法分析造成我國生豬保險(xiǎn)購買需求不足的原因。 首先,本文先對生豬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估及生豬保險(xiǎn)需求相關(guān)國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了相關(guān)梳理和闡述,其次對本文所需的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)也進(jìn)行了介紹分析,以期為之后的研究分析打好基礎(chǔ)。 其次,以我國生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)重大疫病為例,通過將疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與生豬死亡數(shù)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行量化,運(yùn)用極值POT模型對我國生豬疫病災(zāi)害損失尾部分布進(jìn)行了有效擬合,構(gòu)建了我國生豬重大疫病損失的廣義Pareto分布模型。并利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值法,實(shí)證分析和度量了我國生豬疫病發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,計(jì)算出我國不同等級的生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的95%置信區(qū)間,構(gòu)建了我國生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的基本框架。 隨后,基于養(yǎng)殖戶的視角,利用四川省資陽市實(shí)地調(diào)研所獲取的188戶生豬養(yǎng)殖戶的問卷資料展開實(shí)證分析,以我國生豬保險(xiǎn)的購買意愿為切入點(diǎn),從微觀視角研究了生豬保險(xiǎn)作為生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理重要手段的有效性。研究結(jié)果表明,養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模、養(yǎng)殖意愿、投保程序、養(yǎng)殖保險(xiǎn)了解狀況、保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼政策了解程度,疫病狀況是影響?zhàn)B殖戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購買意愿的主要因素,進(jìn)而對生豬保險(xiǎn)發(fā)揮對疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制作用產(chǎn)生重大的影響。 最后,通過對我國生豬重大生豬疫病災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析評估及養(yǎng)殖戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購買意愿的影響因素分析,提出了相關(guān)建議：強(qiáng)化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究,構(gòu)建疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布模型；逐漸構(gòu)建畜牧業(yè)商業(yè)保險(xiǎn),形成全方位的畜牧保險(xiǎn)體系；制定有效地防控政策,高財(cái)政資金的利用效率；提高我國畜牧業(yè)養(yǎng)殖方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)�；�(jīng)營；完善撲殺補(bǔ)償機(jī)制；完善我國生豬保險(xiǎn)法律法規(guī),修改或調(diào)整生豬保險(xiǎn)條例中不合理成分；實(shí)施動物疫病的區(qū)域化管理,加強(qiáng)我國無規(guī)定動物疫病區(qū)建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, China's consumption of animal food consumption increased significantly, thus promoting the rapid development of the poultry industry. By the end of 2012, China has become the first big country of production and consumption of livestock products, livestock and poultry industry in improving food structure of Chinese people, played an increasing role in increasing farmers' income and ensure food supply safety. But the animal disease risk associated with this has intensified, and gradually rose to become the primary factor restricting the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China, and also led to the serious public health security crisis. Pig insurance as an effective means of risk management of pig breeding industry, successfully achieve the agricultural risk in in the range of the whole society to share in, to ensure the stable development of aquaculture in China, has played an important role in controlling the epidemic risk. But China's pig insurance. There are also some problems in the development process, is the most crucial problem of insufficient farmers on pig insurance effective demand, cause there are many reasons for this phenomenon, and according to the related research of scholars at home and abroad, pig insurance premium set unreasonable, resulting in pig insurance price and the value of a larger deviation that is one of the main causes of farmers pig insurance purchase intention is low. Therefore, this paper will focus on the above issues, firstly, from the perspective of disease risk, constructs a model of risk distribution of pig disease in our country, and on the basis of pig disease disasters in China are effective risk measure, to provide certain theoretical support to develop as China's pig insurance premium; secondly, starting from the perspective of farmers, according to the field survey data obtained by empirical analysis result of China's pig insurance purchase The reason for the shortage of demand.
First of all, this paper first reviews and reviews relevant literatures on pig risk assessment and pig insurance demand. Secondly, it introduces and analyzes the relevant theoretical basis of this paper, hoping to lay a solid foundation for future research and analysis.
Secondly, with China's pig breeding industry of major diseases, for example, the relationship between the number of pig disease risk and death are quantified by the maximum POT model is effective to fit the epidemic disaster losses in China pig tail distribution, constructing the generalized Pareto distribution model of China's pig diseases of major loss. And the risk value method. The empirical analysis and measurement of the occurrence of pig disease in our country risk level, calculate the pig disease risk loss of different grade in our country of the 95% confidence interval, the basic framework of constructing pig disease risk assessment in China.
Subsequently, farmers from the perspective of empirical analysis by using Sichuan city in Ziyang Province, the investigation of the acquired 188 pig farmers survey data on pig insurance in China's purchase intention as the breakthrough point, from the micro perspective of pig pig disease risk insurance as an important means of effective physical results. The scale of farming, aquaculture, will, insurance procedures, aquaculture insurance premium subsidies to understand the situation, understanding the extent, disease status is the main factor affecting the willingness of farmers to buy insurance, and thus have a significant impact on the risk for disease control effect on pig insurance play.
Finally, analysis of the factors affecting the purchase intention through the China pig major epidemic disaster risk assessment and analysis of the pig pig farmers insurance, puts forward related suggestions: strengthen risk research, disease risk distribution model; gradually build commercial insurance of animal husbandry, animal husbandry and the formation of a full range of insurance system; to develop effective prevention and control policies, efficiency the use of financial funds; to improve China's animal husbandry, realize scale management; perfect compensation mechanism; perfect the insurance laws and regulations of our country, modify or adjust the insurance regulations unreasonable; the regional management of the implementation of animal disease, strengthen the construction of animal disease free Zone in our country.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.66;F326.3

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