基于GWR模型的杭州市寫字樓租金特征價(jià)格空間分異研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-15 17:05
【摘要】：隨著城鎮(zhèn)化率的不斷提高,城市經(jīng)濟(jì)得以快速增長,社會(huì)化分工與協(xié)作進(jìn)一步得到推動(dòng)和完善,催生出大量新的辦公空間需求。然而,辦公空間的載體——寫字樓的供給卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出當(dāng)前的需求,杭州市同其他多數(shù)二線城市一樣,寫字樓新增供應(yīng)與城市規(guī)模、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)基本面創(chuàng)造的需求不相匹配,市場(chǎng)存量不斷增多,去化緩慢。探索城市寫字樓價(jià)格特征,掌握影響寫字樓租金變量,分析城市寫字樓空間分異特點(diǎn)等研究將有利于市場(chǎng)各方科學(xué)快速的把握需求,推進(jìn)寫字樓長效的開發(fā)、經(jīng)營與管理。本文首先回顧了特征價(jià)格研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),探討了特征價(jià)格模型和地理加權(quán)模型的基本理論和計(jì)算方法,并對(duì)目前寫字樓相關(guān)研究做了總結(jié)。影響寫字樓租金的因素非常多,本文通過綜合國內(nèi)和國外研究成果,實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)成果,以及國內(nèi)辦公市場(chǎng)特點(diǎn)和相關(guān)專業(yè)人士的經(jīng)驗(yàn)積累,總結(jié)出一套適用于我國的寫字樓租金特征價(jià)格變量體系,最終根據(jù)杭州市數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn)將各個(gè)特征變量進(jìn)一步分為內(nèi)部特征和外部特征兩類。然后,就收集到的2016年1月杭州市寫字樓橫截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行初步的分布與構(gòu)成分析,利用OLS法分析寫字樓租金特征價(jià)格,討論了四種函數(shù)的回歸效果,逐步研究了不同函數(shù)形式下的擬合結(jié)果、并對(duì)SPSS環(huán)境下線性對(duì)數(shù)函數(shù)建模和自動(dòng)線性建模的優(yōu)劣進(jìn)行了比較,并最終確立了 OLS法下的特征價(jià)格回歸模型,進(jìn)入回歸的變量有內(nèi)部特征3個(gè)(物業(yè)服務(wù)、電梯數(shù)量、建筑平面)和外部特征3個(gè)(距武林廣場(chǎng)距離、距市民中心距離、交通條件)。在擬合效果最好的特征價(jià)格模型基礎(chǔ)上,本文建立了對(duì)異質(zhì)空間回歸為特征的GWR模型,研究結(jié)果顯示,杭州市寫字樓租金的研究GWR模型相較于傳統(tǒng)的特征價(jià)格模型具有更好的回歸效果。具體從內(nèi)部特征來看,建筑標(biāo)準(zhǔn)層面積越大對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)老城區(qū)寫字樓租金價(jià)格具有顯著的正面促進(jìn)作用,而對(duì)城市新區(qū)(濱江區(qū)、錢江新城)則完全相反;物業(yè)服務(wù)對(duì)全杭州市寫字樓租金價(jià)格的影響都十分顯著,但是對(duì)傳統(tǒng)商圈核心區(qū)的價(jià)格提升更為明顯,對(duì)城市新區(qū)價(jià)格提升能力偏弱;電梯數(shù)量同樣對(duì)全杭州市寫字樓租金價(jià)格有較為顯著的影響,對(duì)租金價(jià)格的促進(jìn)集中體現(xiàn)在以武林廣場(chǎng)周邊的傳統(tǒng)商圈核心區(qū)。從外部特征來看,距武林廣場(chǎng)距離變量對(duì)各個(gè)區(qū)域均比較顯著,符合杭州市以武林廣場(chǎng)為中心向外擴(kuò)散租金價(jià)格遞減的一般判斷;而距市民中心距離變量則對(duì)租金價(jià)格影響有限,特別是傳統(tǒng)商圈核心區(qū)以及與錢江新城同樣作為新區(qū)的濱江區(qū);交通條件(即公交條數(shù))對(duì)濱江區(qū)寫字樓租金價(jià)格影響非常顯著,其他五區(qū)交通條件的影響則相對(duì)均勻。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, the urban economy has been growing rapidly, and the socialized division of labor and cooperation has been further promoted and improved, resulting in a large number of new office space needs. However, the supply of office space, the carrier of office space, far exceeds the current demand. Hangzhou, like most other second-tier cities, does not match the demand created by the size of the city and the fundamentals of economic structure, the market stock continues to increase, and the transformation is slow. Exploring the price characteristics of urban office buildings, mastering the variables that affect the rent of office buildings, and analyzing the characteristics of spatial differentiation of urban office buildings will be helpful for all parties in the market to grasp the demand scientifically and quickly, and to promote the long-term development, management and management of office buildings. This paper first reviews the relevant literature of feature price research, discusses the basic theory and calculation method of feature price model and geographical weighting model, and summarizes the current office building related research. There are many factors affecting office rent. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, practical experience, as well as the characteristics of domestic office market and the accumulation of experience of relevant professionals, this paper summarizes a set of office rent characteristic price variable system suitable for our country, and finally divides each characteristic variable into internal characteristics and external characteristics according to the characteristics of Hangzhou data. Then, the cross section data of Hangzhou office building collected in January 2016 are analyzed, the characteristic price of office rent is analyzed by OLS method, the regression effect of four functions is discussed, the fitting results under different function forms are studied step by step, the advantages and disadvantages of linear logarithmic function modeling and automatic linear modeling in SPSS environment are compared, and the characteristic price regression model under OLS method is finally established. The variables entering the regression include 3 internal characteristics (property service, elevator number, building plane) and 3 external features (distance from Wulin Square, distance from citizen center, traffic conditions). On the basis of the characteristic price model with the best fitting effect, this paper establishes a GWR model characterized by heterogeneous spatial regression. The results show that the GWR model of office rent in Hangzhou has a better regression effect than the traditional characteristic price model. From the internal characteristics, the larger the area of the standard floor of the building has a significant positive role in promoting the rental price of office buildings in the traditional old urban area, but the opposite is true to the new urban area (Binjiang District, Qianjiang New City). The impact of property services on the rental price of office buildings in Hangzhou is very significant, but the price increase in the core area of the traditional business circle is more obvious, and the ability to raise the price in the new urban area is weak. The number of elevators also has a significant impact on the rent price of office buildings in Hangzhou, and the promotion of rent price is mainly reflected in the core area of the traditional business circle around Wulin Square. From the external characteristics, the distance variable from Wulin Square is significant to each region, which accords with the general judgment that the rent price decreases with Wulin Square as the center, while the distance variable from the center of the citizen has limited influence on the rent price, especially the core area of the traditional business circle and the Binjiang District, which is also regarded as the new area of the new area. The influence of traffic conditions (that is, the number of bus strips) on the rent price of office buildings in Binjiang District is very significant, while the influence of traffic conditions in the other five districts is relatively uniform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, the urban economy has been growing rapidly, and the socialized division of labor and cooperation has been further promoted and improved, resulting in a large number of new office space needs. However, the supply of office space, the carrier of office space, far exceeds the current demand. Hangzhou, like most other second-tier cities, does not match the demand created by the size of the city and the fundamentals of economic structure, the market stock continues to increase, and the transformation is slow. Exploring the price characteristics of urban office buildings, mastering the variables that affect the rent of office buildings, and analyzing the characteristics of spatial differentiation of urban office buildings will be helpful for all parties in the market to grasp the demand scientifically and quickly, and to promote the long-term development, management and management of office buildings. This paper first reviews the relevant literature of feature price research, discusses the basic theory and calculation method of feature price model and geographical weighting model, and summarizes the current office building related research. There are many factors affecting office rent. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, practical experience, as well as the characteristics of domestic office market and the accumulation of experience of relevant professionals, this paper summarizes a set of office rent characteristic price variable system suitable for our country, and finally divides each characteristic variable into internal characteristics and external characteristics according to the characteristics of Hangzhou data. Then, the cross section data of Hangzhou office building collected in January 2016 are analyzed, the characteristic price of office rent is analyzed by OLS method, the regression effect of four functions is discussed, the fitting results under different function forms are studied step by step, the advantages and disadvantages of linear logarithmic function modeling and automatic linear modeling in SPSS environment are compared, and the characteristic price regression model under OLS method is finally established. The variables entering the regression include 3 internal characteristics (property service, elevator number, building plane) and 3 external features (distance from Wulin Square, distance from citizen center, traffic conditions). On the basis of the characteristic price model with the best fitting effect, this paper establishes a GWR model characterized by heterogeneous spatial regression. The results show that the GWR model of office rent in Hangzhou has a better regression effect than the traditional characteristic price model. From the internal characteristics, the larger the area of the standard floor of the building has a significant positive role in promoting the rental price of office buildings in the traditional old urban area, but the opposite is true to the new urban area (Binjiang District, Qianjiang New City). The impact of property services on the rental price of office buildings in Hangzhou is very significant, but the price increase in the core area of the traditional business circle is more obvious, and the ability to raise the price in the new urban area is weak. The number of elevators also has a significant impact on the rent price of office buildings in Hangzhou, and the promotion of rent price is mainly reflected in the core area of the traditional business circle around Wulin Square. From the external characteristics, the distance variable from Wulin Square is significant to each region, which accords with the general judgment that the rent price decreases with Wulin Square as the center, while the distance variable from the center of the citizen has limited influence on the rent price, especially the core area of the traditional business circle and the Binjiang District, which is also regarded as the new area of the new area. The influence of traffic conditions (that is, the number of bus strips) on the rent price of office buildings in Binjiang District is very significant, while the influence of traffic conditions in the other five districts is relatively uniform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
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