本文選題：電網(wǎng)物資 + 物資需求預(yù)測　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著電力體制改革的進一步深化,國家電網(wǎng)公司“三集五大”建設(shè)的全面推進,物資集約化管理理念的提出,給電網(wǎng)企業(yè)物資管理提出了更高的要求。電網(wǎng)企業(yè)物資需求預(yù)測作為物資管理流程的信息起始點,是提升集約化管理水平的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),而物資需求預(yù)測的準確性與及時性制約著物資管理水平的發(fā)展。對電網(wǎng)企業(yè)物資需求進行精準預(yù)測,一方面可以避免因多報而造成的資金積壓、庫存積壓等現(xiàn)象,有效的提高物資集約化管理水平,另一方面對于提高電網(wǎng)企業(yè)核心競爭力也有著重要的意義,合理、科學(xué)的進行物資需求預(yù)測已逐步成為電網(wǎng)企業(yè)提升管理、謀求發(fā)展的重要課題。論文從物資需求計劃的概念、內(nèi)容、特點、制定方法等方面對物資需求計劃進行了詳細闡述。通過對國內(nèi)外管理實踐和技術(shù)應(yīng)用實踐分析,根據(jù)國際通行的預(yù)測方法和工具,對物資需求預(yù)測進行模型設(shè)計。在深入調(diào)研省級電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)上,針對其公司當前生產(chǎn)運營狀況,構(gòu)建出與之相適應(yīng)的物資需求預(yù)測模型,促進物資需求計劃更加科學(xué)合理高效,做到物資供應(yīng)及時、成本消耗降低、倉儲管理科學(xué),促進物資管理水平的提升,進而深化公司物力集約化管理。通過建立物資需求管理的“三模型”,即物資需求影響因素模型、物資需求預(yù)測模型和物資類別匹配關(guān)系模型,形成一套差異化的年度物資需求預(yù)測模型體系,提高物資需求的準確性和及時性,提高采購效率和資金利用率。依據(jù)W省電網(wǎng)企業(yè)物資類別分類,運用相應(yīng)的預(yù)測模型驗證歷史數(shù)據(jù),對比需求預(yù)測的準確性,在此基礎(chǔ)上預(yù)測未來兩年的物資需求,最后得出結(jié)論并展望物資需求預(yù)測的應(yīng)用前景,為輔助省級電網(wǎng)企業(yè)物資需求計劃工作提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the further deepening of the reform of power system, the construction of "three sets and five big" in State Grid Company has been carried out in an all-round way, and the idea of intensive material management has been put forward, which has put forward higher requirements for the material management of power grid enterprises. As the information starting point of the material management process, the material demand forecast of the power grid enterprise is the key link to enhance the intensive management level, and the accuracy and timeliness of the material demand forecast restrict the development of the material management level. Accurate forecasting of the material demand of power grid enterprises can, on the one hand, avoid the overstock of funds and stocks caused by overreporting, and effectively improve the level of intensive material management. On the other hand, it is of great significance to improve the core competitiveness of power grid enterprises. Reasonable and scientific forecasting of material demand has gradually become an important subject for grid enterprises to enhance management and seek development. In this paper, the concept, content, characteristics and methods of material demand planning are described in detail. Based on the analysis of management practice and technology application practice at home and abroad, the model design of material demand forecasting is carried out according to the international common forecasting methods and tools. On the basis of in-depth investigation of provincial power grid enterprises, in view of the current production and operation situation of the company, a material demand forecasting model is constructed to promote more scientific, reasonable and efficient material demand planning, so that the material supply can be timely. The cost consumption is reduced, the storage management is scientific, the material management level is promoted, and the material resources intensive management of the company is deepened. Through the establishment of "three models" of material demand management, that is, material demand influencing factor model, material demand forecasting model and material category matching model, a set of differentiated annual material demand forecasting model system is formed. Improve the accuracy and timeliness of material requirements, improve procurement efficiency and fund utilization. According to the material classification of W province power grid enterprises, the historical data are verified by the corresponding forecasting model, and the accuracy of demand prediction is compared, and then the material demand in the next two years is predicted. Finally, the conclusion is drawn and the application prospect of material demand prediction is forecasted, which provides a reference for provincial power grid enterprises to plan material demand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;F251

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