本文選題：預期管理 + 信息沖擊�。� 參考：《遼寧大學》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：預期管理作為宏觀調(diào)控理論與實踐的創(chuàng)新發(fā)展,通過有效引導、協(xié)調(diào)和穩(wěn)定社會預期,去追求經(jīng)濟政策正效用最大化、副作用最小化的效果組合。預期管理源起于上世紀五十年代、成型于本世紀之初,在近年來各經(jīng)濟體應對美國“次貸危機”引發(fā)的全球經(jīng)濟衰退與持續(xù)疲弱的宏觀調(diào)控實踐中大顯身手,成為以“量化寬松、前瞻性指引”為代表的“非常規(guī)”經(jīng)濟政策的直接理論支持。我國政府因時應勢,根據(jù)中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)實與特點,推出了中國版的“預期管理”舉措。初步形成了以“區(qū)間調(diào)控、定向調(diào)控和相機調(diào)控”為內(nèi)涵的宏觀經(jīng)濟“區(qū)間管理”的宏觀調(diào)控新理念,升華了前瞻性指引的目標層面；在通過貨幣政策實現(xiàn)預期管理的實踐中,立足本國實際,在積極推進利率走廊機制建設的基礎上,踐行前瞻性指引,提升預期管理效果；在注重通過貨幣政策實現(xiàn)預期管理的同時,積極擴大預期管理覆蓋領域,將財政政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟政策紛紛納入預期管理范疇。本文在對預期、預期理論和預期管理貨幣政策進行文獻回顧的基礎上,圍繞宏觀經(jīng)濟預期管理對相關理論展開了系統(tǒng)研究,并對預期管理的理論模型、測度指標與實際測度進行了初步探討。在進一步考察中國宏觀調(diào)控預期管理歷史實踐的基礎上,對中國宏觀調(diào)控與預期管理結(jié)合后的探索與發(fā)展進行了思考。在構(gòu)建嵌入預期沖擊的新凱恩斯主義動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型后,利用1999年至2015年的中國宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)對預期沖擊與宏觀經(jīng)濟波動展開了實證分析。在對多類型預期沖擊影響宏觀經(jīng)濟波動的傳導機制進行分析的基礎上,得出整體預期沖擊是影響宏觀經(jīng)濟波動的重要因素,其可以對中國宏觀經(jīng)濟波動提供60%以上的解釋。從而對實施預期管理的必要性、可能性給出了回應,并進一步將貨幣政策預期管理進行模型內(nèi)生化設定,通過數(shù)值模擬得出了預期管理有效性的結(jié)論。為了對預期管理建設提供可借鑒經(jīng)驗,本文以貨幣政策前瞻性指引這一主要實現(xiàn)預期管理的核心工具出發(fā),在對前瞻性指引的實施背景、基本理論和政策進行梳理基礎上,對美國、日本、歐盟等國的前瞻性實踐進行了系統(tǒng)比較研究,總結(jié)了國外實施預期管理的經(jīng)驗與啟發(fā)。最后,對我國實施預期管理提出了較全面系統(tǒng)化的政策建議。
[Abstract]:As an innovative development of macro-control theory and practice, expectation management is a combination of effective guidance, coordination and stabilization of social expectations to maximize the positive utility of economic policies and minimize side effects. The expected management originated in the 1950s and took shape at the beginning of this century. It has played an important role in the global economic recession and the continued weakness of macro-control practices caused by the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States in recent years. It has become the direct theoretical support of unconventional economic policies represented by quantitative easing and forward-looking guidance. According to the reality and characteristics of China's economic development, our government has put forward the Chinese version of "anticipatory management". A new macro-control concept of "interval management" with the connotation of "interval regulation, directional control and camera control" has been formed, which sublimates the target level of forward-looking guidance, and in the practice of realizing expected management through monetary policy, Based on the reality of our country, on the basis of actively promoting the construction of interest rate corridor mechanism, we should carry out forward-looking guidance to improve the effect of expected management, and at the same time, we should actively expand the coverage of expected management while focusing on the implementation of expected management through monetary policy. Financial policy, industrial policy, regional economic policy have been brought into the scope of expected management. On the basis of literature review of expectation, expectation theory and expected management monetary policy, this paper systematically studies the related theories around macroeconomic expectation management, and makes a theoretical model of expectation management. The measurement index and the actual measure are preliminarily discussed. On the basis of further investigation of the historical practice of China's macroeconomic regulation and control expectation management, this paper discusses the exploration and development of the combination of macro control and expectation management in China. After constructing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded in expected shocks, the empirical analysis of expected shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations is carried out using Chinese macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2015. Based on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the impact of multiple types of expected shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations, it is concluded that the overall expected impact is an important factor affecting macroeconomic fluctuations, which can provide more than 60% explanation for macroeconomic fluctuations in China. Therefore, the necessity and possibility of implementing the expected management are responded, and the model of the expected management of monetary policy is further set up, and the conclusion of the effectiveness of the expected management is obtained by numerical simulation. In order to provide experience for the construction of prospective management, this paper starts from the monetary policy forward-looking guidance, which is the core tool to realize the prospective management, on the basis of combing the implementation background, basic theory and policy of the forward-looking guidance. This paper makes a systematic comparative study on the prospective practice of the United States, Japan and the European Union, and summarizes the experience and inspiration of implementing prospective management in foreign countries. Finally, the paper puts forward more comprehensive and systematic policy recommendations for the implementation of prospective management in China.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F201
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本文編號：1818589