本文選題：化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策　切入點：重工業(yè)城市　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全國范圍內(nèi),房地產(chǎn)市場出現(xiàn)供求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,庫存擠壓問題嚴(yán)重,亟待化解輸出。與此同時,積極化解產(chǎn)能過剩同樣是新常態(tài)下經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重點之一。從短期來看,產(chǎn)能的降低不可避免地會對經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生負(fù)面沖擊,對于重工業(yè)城市而言,化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策涉及的行業(yè)擔(dān)任著城市經(jīng)濟增長的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)角色,政策實施帶來的經(jīng)濟基本面下調(diào)的負(fù)面效應(yīng)會在重工業(yè)城市被放大,從而降低了該城市的房地產(chǎn)市場需求,不利于重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)庫存的消化。因此,探討我國重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)需求受化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策的影響,對重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的合理發(fā)展有積極作用�？v觀房地產(chǎn)需求影響因素、化解產(chǎn)能過剩及其政策影響的文獻(xiàn),幾乎沒有將兩者相聯(lián)系,分析其相互影響的研究。本文的研究目的為分析化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策對重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)需求的影響,不僅與現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟形勢相結(jié)合,而且擴寬了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)學(xué)術(shù)研究的范疇,具有理論價值和現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先梳理了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)需求影響因素、化解產(chǎn)能政策及其相互影響方面的文獻(xiàn);其次,在理論闡述方面,以房地產(chǎn)需求影響因素和產(chǎn)能過剩相關(guān)理論為基礎(chǔ),對化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策影響重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)需求的傳導(dǎo)機制進(jìn)行分析;再者,對我國化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策的提出過程加以描述后,提出劃分重工業(yè)城市的定量方法,并運用PSM傾向得分匹配法為典型重工業(yè)城市匹配對照城市,從整體和典型兩個角度對重工業(yè)城市的房地產(chǎn)需求現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述。實證方面,基于全國房地產(chǎn)百城2013-2015年的短面板數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建一階差分模型和雙重差分模型,檢驗了化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策對重工業(yè)城市房地產(chǎn)需求的影響,并通過解釋變量的細(xì)化定義,對化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策影響重工業(yè)房地產(chǎn)市場的時效性進(jìn)行檢驗,最后將房地產(chǎn)市場區(qū)分為住宅市場與非住宅市場進(jìn)行分類回歸。實證結(jié)果表明,化解產(chǎn)能過剩政策對重工業(yè)城市的房地產(chǎn)需求具有顯著的負(fù)向影響,住宅市場的影響更為顯著,非住宅市場政策效應(yīng)不明顯,政策效果的時效性檢驗結(jié)果顯示,政策實施后的第二年效果減弱。最后,從拓展居民購房能力、合理安置受影響職工、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)布局方面為重工業(yè)城市的發(fā)展提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the whole country, the supply and demand structure of the real estate market is out of balance, and the problem of stock squeezing is serious, which needs to be solved urgently.At the same time, active resolution of overcapacity is also one of the key economic development under the new normal.In the short run, the reduction of production capacity will inevitably have a negative impact on the economy. For heavy industrial cities, the industries involved in resolving overcapacity policies play the role of pillar industries in urban economic growth.The negative effect of the economic fundamentals of the policy implementation will be amplified in the heavy industrial city, which will reduce the demand of the real estate market in the city, which is not conducive to the digestion of the real estate stock in the heavy industrial city.Therefore, it is positive for the rational development of the real estate industry in heavy industrial cities to discuss that the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities is affected by the policy of eliminating overcapacity.Looking at the influencing factors of real estate demand, the literature on resolving overcapacity and its policy influence has hardly linked the two factors and analyzed their mutual influence.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of overcapacity policy on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities. It not only combines with the existing economic situation, but also widens the scope of academic research on real estate, which has theoretical value and practical significance.This paper first combs the domestic and foreign literature on the influencing factors of real estate demand, dissolving the production capacity policy and their mutual influence; secondly, on the theoretical side, based on the real estate demand factors and overcapacity related theories.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the overcapacity policy affecting the real estate demand in heavy industrial cities. Furthermore, after describing the process of putting forward the policy of resolving overcapacity in our country, the quantitative method of dividing heavy industrial cities is put forward.Using the PSM tendency score matching method, this paper describes the real estate demand status of heavy industrial cities from the whole and typical perspectives.On the empirical side, based on the short panel data from 2013 to 2015, the first order difference model and the double difference model are constructed to test the impact of overcapacity policies on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities.By explaining the detailed definition of variables, the paper tests the timeliness of the heavy industry real estate market by resolving the policy of overcapacity, and finally classifies the real estate market into residential market and non-residential market.The empirical results show that the overcapacity policy has a significant negative impact on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities, especially in the housing market, and the policy effect is not obvious in the non-residential market.The second year after the implementation of the policy, the effect weakened.Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the development of heavy industrial cities from the aspects of expanding residents' ability to purchase houses, reasonably placing affected staff and workers, and optimizing the industrial layout.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1730059