本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)支出　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年,我國(guó)住房制度改革,房?jī)r(jià)進(jìn)入持續(xù)上漲時(shí)期,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)也被投資者發(fā)現(xiàn),并逐漸成為我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭財(cái)富組成中的重要部分,且在家庭財(cái)富組成中所占比例呈逐漸增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)。因此,當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)成為家庭財(cái)富的重要組成部分,而家庭財(cái)富的水平又是影響居民家庭消費(fèi)水平的主要因素之一時(shí),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)必然會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)水平產(chǎn)生很大的影響。由于國(guó)家的大力扶植,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有越來(lái)越重要的地位,已經(jīng)逐漸成為我國(guó)的一大經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)支柱。因此為了把我國(guó)當(dāng)前由外需、投資拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì),逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭績(jī)?nèi)需拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì),弄清楚我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)水平的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系就顯得越來(lái)越重要。本文創(chuàng)新地以不同收入群體消費(fèi)水平受房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)的影響為著眼點(diǎn)和研究思路。首先運(yùn)用理論分析了房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)支出的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,并詳細(xì)分析了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響居民消費(fèi)這一傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制;然后利用我國(guó)2002年2015年的各季度數(shù)據(jù)作為支持進(jìn)行實(shí)證,檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)不同收入群體消費(fèi)支出受房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響,并得出結(jié)論;最后,結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)際情況與結(jié)論,為我國(guó)制定房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控政策提供一些政策建議。實(shí)證部分,本文根據(jù)2002-2015年我國(guó)不同收入群體的消費(fèi)性支出、人均可支配收入、商品房銷售價(jià)格、股票價(jià)格指數(shù)等數(shù)據(jù),先后進(jìn)行了單位根檢驗(yàn),協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),建立了 VAR模型和個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)模型去深入分析我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)不同收入群體消費(fèi)水平的影響。本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,在影響居民消費(fèi)支出的各種因素中,可支配收入這一要素仍是最主要的;房?jī)r(jià)的過快上漲對(duì)低收入群體的消費(fèi)支出基本沒有影響;房?jī)r(jià)的過快上漲抑制了中等收入群體和高收入群體的消費(fèi)支出,房地產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)整體表現(xiàn)為負(fù)效應(yīng),即房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲導(dǎo)致的房產(chǎn)增值并沒有促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),反而對(duì)居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生了明顯的"擠出效應(yīng)"。并針對(duì)這一研究結(jié)果分析了原因,并提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, with the reform of housing system in our country, the real estate market has also been discovered by investors, and has gradually become an important part of the family wealth of urban residents in our country. Therefore, when real estate becomes an important part of household wealth, and the level of household wealth is one of the main factors affecting household consumption, The fluctuation of real estate prices in our country will inevitably have a great impact on the consumption level of Chinese residents. With the support of the country, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and occupied an increasingly important position in the national economy. Has gradually become a pillar of our country's economic industry. Therefore, in order to shift our country's current economy from external demand to investment-led economy, it is gradually changing to relying on domestic demand to pull the economy. It is more and more important to find out the internal relation between the fluctuation of real estate price and the consumption level of Chinese residents. This paper focuses on the effect of the fluctuation of house price on the consumption level of different income groups. First of all, the internal relationship between the fluctuation of house price and the consumption expenditure of residents is analyzed by using the theory. The paper also analyzes the transmission mechanism of the real estate price fluctuation affecting residents' consumption in detail, and then uses the quarterly data of China's 2002 and 2015 as evidence to test that the consumption expenditure of different income groups is affected by the fluctuation of real estate price. Finally, according to the actual situation and conclusion of our country, it provides some policy suggestions for China to formulate the real estate market regulation policy. In the empirical part, according to the consumption expenditure of different income groups in China from 2002 to 2015, Per capita disposable income, sale price of commercial housing, stock price index and other data have been tested successively by unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, etc. VAR model and individual fixed effect model are established to analyze the effect of real estate price fluctuation on the consumption level of different income groups in China. The factor of disposable income remains the most important; the excessive rise in house prices has little effect on consumer spending among low-income groups; and the excessive rise in house prices inhibits consumer spending among the middle-income and high-income groups. The real estate wealth effect as a whole shows negative effect, that is, the real estate value added caused by the rise of real estate price does not promote the residents' consumption, on the contrary, it has obvious "crowding out effect" on the residents' consumption. And put forward the relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F126.1

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