本文選題：能源 + 環(huán)境　； 參考：《中國人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年05期

【摘要】：中國承諾將于2030年左右使單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放總量達到峰值并爭取盡早實現(xiàn)。我國目前的碳排放主要來自工業(yè)、交通運輸業(yè)和建筑業(yè),其中建筑業(yè)碳排放約40%,所占比重最大,而高達550億m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑業(yè)碳排放的主力。住宅建筑節(jié)能是關系到我國建筑業(yè)節(jié)能減排目標能否順利實現(xiàn)的重要因素,是我國節(jié)能減排工作的重要領域。構建一個可用于衡量住宅建筑節(jié)能對資源環(huán)境及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展影響的可計算模型是推動住宅建筑節(jié)能工作的重要基礎。本文嘗試以CGE標準模型為基礎,依次對住宅建筑生產(chǎn)模塊、污染排放模塊、節(jié)能住宅建筑模塊、動態(tài)模塊和環(huán)境福利模塊進行詳細構建說明。在四方面對標準模型進行擴展:第一,將生產(chǎn)要素擴展為資本、勞動和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解為清潔能源與非清潔能源束,然后再予深化細化;第二,依據(jù)差異的貿(mào)易伙伴將進出口細化為差異的國家和地區(qū);第三,將建筑污染排放作為一個特殊部門,建立建筑污染排放模塊,納入到CGE模型中,并將污染要素納入到效應函數(shù)中;第四,依據(jù)資本增長模型,建立動態(tài)模塊。通過將住宅建筑節(jié)能作為變量擴展到標準CGE模型的方法,構建了住宅建筑節(jié)能CGE擴展模型。借助該擴展模型,可以研究非節(jié)能建筑約束、外部節(jié)能建筑與經(jīng)濟增長之間的內(nèi)在關系,進而破解非節(jié)能建筑約束、外部節(jié)能建筑與住宅建筑節(jié)能快速發(fā)展之間難以協(xié)調(diào)的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基礎上,可進一步建立相應的社會核算矩陣(SAM),并對各種函數(shù)的參數(shù)估計和敏感性檢驗進行實證分析。
[Abstract]:China is committed to reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60 to 65 per unit of GDP by 2030 or so, peaking emissions and striving to achieve them as soon as possible. China's current carbon emissions mainly come from industry, transportation and construction industry, among which the construction industry carbon emissions are about 40, accounting for the largest proportion, and up to 55 billion m2 of residential energy consumption and emissions are the main carbon emissions of the construction industry. Energy saving in residential buildings is an important factor related to the smooth realization of energy saving and emission reduction targets in China's construction industry and an important field of energy saving and emission reduction work in China. To construct a computable model which can be used to measure the impact of energy conservation in residential buildings on resources, environment and economic development is an important basis for promoting energy conservation in residential buildings. Based on the CGE standard model, this paper attempts to explain the production module of residential building, the pollution emission module, the energy-saving residential building module, the dynamic module and the environmental welfare module in turn. The standard model is extended in four aspects: first, the factors of production are expanded into capital, labor and energy element bundles, the energy factor bundles are decomposed into clean energy and non-clean energy bundles, and then further refined; second, According to the different trading partners, import and export are classified into different countries and regions. Thirdly, building pollution emissions as a special sector are built into the CGE model. The pollution factor is incorporated into the effect function. Fourthly, the dynamic module is established according to the capital growth model. By extending the energy efficiency of residential buildings to the standard CGE model, the CGE expansion model of residential building energy saving is constructed. With the help of the extended model, we can study the internal relationship between the non-energy-saving building constraints, the external energy-efficient building and economic growth, and then solve the non-energy-saving building constraints. The contradiction between external energy-saving building and residential building energy-saving is difficult to coordinate. On the basis of the research results in this paper, the corresponding social accounting matrix can be further established, and the parameter estimation and sensitivity test of various functions can be empirically analyzed.
【作者單位】： 同濟大學經(jīng)濟與管理學院;
【基金】：上海市科技發(fā)展基金課題“特大型城市低碳化的系統(tǒng)結構研究”(批準號:10692103000)
【分類號】：TU241.91
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本文編號：2019819