本文選題：設(shè)計暴雨 + 極值Copula�。� 參考：《水科學(xué)進展》2017年03期

【摘要】：使用珠海市1984—2015年R_(1h)-R_(6h)、R_(1h)-R_(12h)、R_(1h)-R_(24h)3個歷時暴雨組合推算排水排澇兩級標準銜接的設(shè)計暴雨水平。應(yīng)用阿基米德極值Copula與Kendall分布函數(shù)構(gòu)建不同歷時暴雨組合的聯(lián)合概率分布模式。分析各歷時暴雨組合的遭遇概率、"或"重現(xiàn)期、"且"重現(xiàn)期和二次重現(xiàn)期,以出現(xiàn)最大可能概率的方法推算各組合的設(shè)計暴雨值。結(jié)果表明:二次重現(xiàn)期所對應(yīng)的累積頻率更準確地代表了特定設(shè)計頻率情況下不同歷時暴雨組合的風(fēng)險率;重現(xiàn)期分別為2年、3年、5年、10年、20年、50年、100年推算的二次重現(xiàn)期設(shè)計值介于"或"重現(xiàn)期和"且"重現(xiàn)期設(shè)計值之間,小于相應(yīng)的邊緣分布重現(xiàn)期設(shè)計值,R_(1h)-R_(6h)組合推算的設(shè)計值相對誤差為3.1%~7.1%;R_(1h)-R_(12h)組合推算的設(shè)計值相對誤差為3.3%~9.3%;R_(1h)-R_(24h)組合推算的設(shè)計值相對誤差為3.9%~12.0%。二次重現(xiàn)期推算的不同歷時暴雨組合的設(shè)計暴雨分位值為內(nèi)澇工程的風(fēng)險管理和管渠尺寸提供了優(yōu)選標準和設(shè)計參考。
[Abstract]:In Zhuhai, from 1984 to 2015, the design rainstorm level of two standard contiguous levels of drainage and drainage was calculated by using the combination of three periods of heavy rain, namely, 1 h-1 / 1 / 12 / 1 / 1 / 12 / h) of three combined rainstorms in Zhuhai for the purpose of calculating the design rainstorm level of the two levels of contiguous design of drainage and waterlogging. The Archimedes extreme Copula and Kendall distribution function are used to construct the joint probability distribution model of different duration rainstorm combinations. This paper analyzes the encounter probability, "or" recurrence period "and" secondary recurrence period "of each diachronic rainstorm combination, and calculates the design rainstorm value of each combination by the method of maximum possible probability. The results show that the cumulative frequency corresponding to the secondary recurrence period represents more accurately the risk rate of different duration rainstorm combinations under specific design frequencies. The design values of the second recurrence period, which were calculated to be 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years and 100 years, respectively, were between the design values of "or" recurrence period and "recurrence period". The relative error of the design value of the combination reckoning is 3.1 / 7.1h / s / 12h). The relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.39.3U / R / L / 1h-R24h). The relative error of the design value of the combination is 3.9 / 12.0 / r / h, and the relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.9 / 12.0 / h / h, and the relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.39.3h-R24h. The design of different duration rainstorm combinations calculated in the secondary recurrence period provides the optimal selection standard and design reference for the risk management and pipe and canal size of waterlogging engineering.
【作者單位】： 中山大學(xué)水資源與環(huán)境系;珠江水利科學(xué)研究院;珠海市公共氣象服務(wù)中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(41371498)~~
【分類號】：TU992

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本文編號：2005689