本文選題：國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)　； 參考：《河北工程大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著“走出去”步伐的加快,中國(guó)與世界其他國(guó)家的關(guān)系變得越來(lái)越密切,國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)進(jìn)行國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與技術(shù)合作的重要組成部分。與一般傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)內(nèi)工程項(xiàng)目相比,國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間存在著更強(qiáng)的關(guān)聯(lián)性,選擇的應(yīng)對(duì)策略是否合適對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響更大。因而,要加強(qiáng)對(duì)國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,在對(duì)國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)以及選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略時(shí)要重視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián),并且在應(yīng)對(duì)策略選擇時(shí)要采用更加量化的方法,這樣才能夠幫助國(guó)內(nèi)承包商更好地進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,保證項(xiàng)目順利進(jìn)行,最終達(dá)到項(xiàng)目的預(yù)期目標(biāo)。本文從國(guó)內(nèi)承包商視角,基于可拓理論中的發(fā)散分析原理,立足于國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目的各個(gè)階段,識(shí)別出國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素;選用考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)的可拓評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)識(shí)別出來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行有效的評(píng)價(jià),得出各層級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素所處的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí);針對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果中等級(jí)較高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間的雙風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)的特點(diǎn),估計(jì)出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的大小,有針對(duì)性地對(duì)每種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出預(yù)防、適應(yīng)和組合這三種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略,通過(guò)建立決策模型來(lái)選擇最優(yōu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略。通過(guò)對(duì)A項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)得到:環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和工程缺陷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為較高,要加以重視,項(xiàng)目整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為一般。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果與實(shí)際相符,驗(yàn)證了可拓評(píng)價(jià)的可行性。對(duì)等級(jí)較高的兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略,通過(guò)輸入決策模型得到:通過(guò)采取組合策略可將兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率降低且花費(fèi)的成本小于該項(xiàng)目可以承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本最小值,故所選擇的應(yīng)對(duì)策略最優(yōu)且決策模型是有效的,該模型可為今后的國(guó)際工程項(xiàng)目應(yīng)對(duì)策略選擇提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of "going out", the relationship between China and other countries in the world has become more and more close, and international engineering projects have become an important part of China's international economic and technical cooperation. Compared with the traditional domestic engineering projects, there is a stronger correlation between the risks of international engineering projects, and the impact of the appropriate coping strategies on the projects is greater. Therefore, to strengthen the risk management of international engineering projects, to evaluate the risks of international engineering projects and to select risk coping strategies, we should pay attention to risk correlation, and adopt more quantitative methods in the choice of coping strategies. Only in this way can the domestic contractor better carry out the risk management, ensure the project to proceed smoothly, and finally achieve the expected goal of the project. Based on the divergence analysis principle of extension theory, this paper identifies the risk factors of international engineering projects from the perspective of domestic contractors, based on the various stages of international engineering projects. The extension evaluation method considering risk correlation is selected to evaluate the identified risk factors effectively, and the risk grade of each level risk factor is obtained, aiming at the higher grade risk factors in the evaluation results. According to the characteristics of double risk correlation between risks, the probability of risk occurrence and the magnitude of risk loss are estimated, and three risk coping strategies, namely, prevention, adaptation and combination, are proposed for each risk. A decision model is established to select the optimal risk response strategy. Through the risk evaluation of project A, it is concluded that the risk grade of environmental risk and engineering defect risk factor is higher, we should pay attention to it, and the overall risk grade of the project is general. The evaluation results are in agreement with the practice, and the feasibility of extension evaluation is verified. A risk response strategy is proposed for two kinds of high grade risks, which is obtained by input decision model: the risk probability of the two risks can be reduced by adopting the combination strategy and the cost of the project is less than the minimum value of the project's risk cost. Therefore, the optimal coping strategy is chosen and the decision model is effective. The model can provide decision support for the international project response strategy selection in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TU71

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