【摘要】：目前，地方債務(wù)存在舉債融資不規(guī)范、監(jiān)管不到位、行業(yè)償債能力弱、測(cè)評(píng)機(jī)制以及防范機(jī)制缺失等問題，有一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患。本文以D市為例研究三線城市地方債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平。 首先，闡述當(dāng)前D市地方債務(wù)狀況，分析其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，包括償還風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響政府威信、社會(huì)穩(wěn)定、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行乃至金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等，進(jìn)而深入分析其形成的歷史以及現(xiàn)實(shí)原因。 接著，采用定量與定性相結(jié)合、實(shí)證與理論相結(jié)合的等研究方法，對(duì)“十二五”時(shí)期D市地方債務(wù)規(guī)模進(jìn)行測(cè)算，包括“十一五”時(shí)期的存量債務(wù)的影響和“十二五”新增債務(wù)。前者利用EXCEL，PMT函數(shù)，計(jì)算債務(wù)本息和獲得，后者由地方政府投資資金需求與地方政府投資能力的差額獲得。通過情景假定對(duì)D市地方債務(wù)壓力測(cè)試：不同經(jīng)濟(jì)增長視角下的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、不同中央與地方支出責(zé)任分擔(dān)格局下的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、不同政府與市場(chǎng)公共投資邊界下的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以達(dá)到測(cè)算D市地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的。 最后，比較壓力測(cè)試負(fù)債率、債務(wù)率、再融資率等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的變化，得出結(jié)論：“十二五”時(shí)期D市地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)雖然總體可控，但部分指標(biāo)顯示債務(wù)壓力持續(xù)走高，形勢(shì)不容樂觀，有必要多管齊下、疏堵結(jié)合，通過保持適當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展增速、上級(jí)向下轉(zhuǎn)移部分財(cái)力、市場(chǎng)參與公共投資領(lǐng)域的投融資等措施，以緩解地方政府債務(wù)壓力。據(jù)此，提出相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范對(duì)策與建議。
[Abstract]:At present, there are some problems in local debt, such as irregular borrowing and financing, inadequate supervision, weak solvency of the industry, lack of evaluation mechanism and preventive mechanism, and so on, and there are some hidden dangers. This paper takes D city as an example to study the risk level of local debt in third-tier cities. First of all, this paper expounds the current situation of local debt in D city, analyzes its risk, including repayment risk, debt risk affecting government authority, social stability, macroeconomic operation and even financial risk, and then deeply analyzes the history and practical reasons of its formation. Then, using the combination of quantitative and qualitative, empirical and theoretical research methods, this paper calculates the scale of local debt in D city during the 12th five-year Plan period, including the impact of stock debt during the Eleventh five-year Plan period and the new debt in the 12th five-year Plan period. The former uses the EXCEL,PMT function to calculate the principal and interest of debt and the acquisition, while the latter is obtained by the difference between the investment capital demand of the local government and the investment capacity of the local government. Through the scenario assumption, the local debt stress test of D city is carried out: the debt risk under different economic growth perspectives, the debt risk under different central and local expenditure responsibility sharing patterns, and the debt risk under the boundary between different government and market public investment, in order to achieve the purpose of measuring the local debt risk in D city. Finally, by comparing the changes of risk indexes such as debt ratio, debt ratio and refinancing rate, it is concluded that although the local debt risk of City D during the 12th five-year Plan period is generally controllable, some indicators show that the debt pressure continues to rise, the situation is not optimistic, it is necessary to combine multi-pronged economic development, and the superiors transfer some of their financial resources downward by maintaining the appropriate growth rate of economic development. Market participation in public investment in the field of investment and financing and other measures to ease the pressure on local government debt. Based on this, the relevant risk prevention countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 韓仁月;常世旺;;中國省級(jí)公共投資的區(qū)域效應(yīng):互利共贏還是以鄰為壑[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2010年04期

2 陳工;苑德宇;;我國公共投資擠占私人投資了嗎?——基于動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的實(shí)證分析[J];財(cái)政研究;2009年12期

3 伊淑彪;;地方政府債務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建及實(shí)證分析[J];地方財(cái)政研究;2011年04期

4 劉尚希;;財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn):從經(jīng)濟(jì)總量角度的分析[J];管理世界;2005年07期

5 張勝財(cái);;防范和化解政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的對(duì)策建議[J];財(cái)政監(jiān)督;2009年19期

6 王蓓;地方財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及防范[J];合作經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2005年16期

7 劉立峰;;地方政府建設(shè)性債務(wù)的可持續(xù)性[J];宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年11期

8 婁洪;長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的公共投資政策——包含一般擁擠性公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資本存量的動(dòng)態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年03期

9 張勇;古明明;;公共投資能否帶動(dòng)私人投資:對(duì)中國公共投資政策的再評(píng)價(jià)[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2011年02期

10 馬駿;劉亞平;;中國地方政府財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究:“逆向軟預(yù)算約束”理論的視角[J];學(xué)術(shù)研究;2005年11期

本文編號(hào)：2512442