【摘要】：中國股市經(jīng)過20多年的發(fā)展,已經(jīng)在國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展中起到舉足輕重的地位。股市與消費需求的相關性日益增強,股市的財富效應也越來越多的受到國內經(jīng)濟學家的關注。 21世紀以來的新一輪經(jīng)濟發(fā)展周期中,江西經(jīng)濟增長速度逐步攀升,居民收入和財富穩(wěn)步增長,居民持有的股票、債券等金融資產(chǎn)和房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)不斷增多。目前,擺脫了“股權分置”頑疾的中國資本市場已進入新的發(fā)展階段,然而,隨著國際金融危機的蔓延,中國股市近年來卻出現(xiàn)了巨幅震蕩,這客觀上要求我們對財富效應進行重新審視。與此相關的一個宏觀經(jīng)濟學的基本問題是,股市波動導致的居民收入結構、財富資產(chǎn)結構的變化是否帶動了居民消費行為的變化?這種變化呈現(xiàn)出什么樣的特征?進一步說,居民消費對于股價上漲和下跌是否具有相同的敏感性和反應程度(對稱性)? 本文在此背景下從經(jīng)典的消費函數(shù)理論出發(fā),以江西城鎮(zhèn)居民的第一手調查資料為基礎,選取江西省城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入、消費支出水平、消費者信心指數(shù)和股票指數(shù)的歷年數(shù)據(jù),通過平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整分析等實證分析方法,檢驗中國股市波動的財富效應對江西省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費的影響。得出的結論是：股市波動對江西城鎮(zhèn)居民消費存在微弱的財富效應,而且這種財富效應的影響的非對稱性的,正的財富效應大于負的財富效應,即股市上漲對居民消費的影響要大于股市下跌對居民消費的影響。最后,根據(jù)前面章節(jié)的研究分析,結合江西省的實際情況做出相應的政策分析。
[Abstract]:After more than 20 years of development, Chinese stock market has played a pivotal role in the development of national economy. The correlation between stock market and consumer demand is increasing, and the wealth effect of stock market is more and more concerned by domestic economists. In the new cycle of economic development since the 21st century, Jiangxi's economic growth rate has gradually increased, the income and wealth of residents have steadily increased, and the financial and real estate assets held by residents such as stocks, bonds and other assets have been increasing. At present, the Chinese capital market, which has got rid of the stubborn disease of "split share structure", has entered a new stage of development. However, with the spread of the international financial crisis, the Chinese stock market has experienced huge shocks in recent years. This objectively requires us to re-examine the wealth effect. The basic question of macroeconomics related to this is whether the change of income structure, wealth and assets structure caused by the fluctuation of stock market will lead to the change of residents' consumption behavior. What are the characteristics of this change? Further, does consumer consumption have the same sensitivity and degree of response (symmetry) to the rise and fall of share prices? Under this background, based on the classical consumption function theory and the first-hand investigation data of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province, this paper selects the level of disposable income and consumption expenditure of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province. The data of consumer confidence index and stock index over the years test the influence of wealth effect of Chinese stock market fluctuation on the consumption of urban residents in Jiangxi province by means of stability test cointegration analysis and other empirical analysis methods. It is concluded that the stock market fluctuation has a weak wealth effect on the consumption of urban residents in Jiangxi Province, and the asymmetric, positive wealth effect is greater than the negative wealth effect. That is, the impact of rising stock market consumption is greater than the impact of the stock market decline on household consumption. Finally, according to the previous chapters of research and analysis, combined with the actual situation of Jiangxi Province to make a corresponding policy analysis.
【學位授予單位】：南昌大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F127;F224

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