【摘要】：由于我國(guó)上市公司高管在決策中容易產(chǎn)生過度自信的心理偏好,這就使得高管容易偏離理性決策,進(jìn)而會(huì)對(duì)公司產(chǎn)生影響。通過對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外過度自信對(duì)股利分配決策影響的文獻(xiàn)研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)有的實(shí)證研究結(jié)果為正相關(guān)關(guān)系,有的結(jié)果為負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,基于此本文通過理論分析來研究過度自信對(duì)股利分配的影響決策在何種條件下成立,并通過實(shí)證研究來檢驗(yàn)這種關(guān)系是否成立。這對(duì)規(guī)范我國(guó)上市公司股利分配決策行為、探索上市公司股利分配決策機(jī)制、提高上市公司質(zhì)量,進(jìn)而保障我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)健康、穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)發(fā)展具有非常重要的理論和實(shí)際意義。 本文首先通過對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究,梳理相關(guān)理論,并界定了過度自信的定義。其次,從個(gè)人心理偏差和決策環(huán)境兩個(gè)角度對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司高管的過度自信心理偏好進(jìn)行了分析,并找出適合度量我國(guó)上市公司高管過度自信的替代變量。之后,通過對(duì)過度自信與股利分配決策的理論關(guān)系推導(dǎo),得出當(dāng)過度自信的上市公司高管預(yù)期到投資項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益系數(shù)大于公司實(shí)際經(jīng)營(yíng)中所面臨的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益系數(shù)的均值時(shí),股利分配水平與其過度自信負(fù)相關(guān)；當(dāng)過度自信的高管預(yù)期到投資項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益系數(shù)小于公司實(shí)際經(jīng)營(yíng)中所面臨的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)-收益系數(shù)的均值時(shí),股利分配水平與其過度自信正相關(guān)。 為檢驗(yàn)理論關(guān)系推導(dǎo)結(jié)論的正確性,本文以2007-2009年間我國(guó)上市公司高管持股數(shù)量和股利分配決策的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,構(gòu)建了過度自信對(duì)股利分配決策影響的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型,并進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果顯示,當(dāng)上市公司高管對(duì)下一年度的預(yù)期收益大于當(dāng)年的實(shí)際收益時(shí),高管過度自信與上市公司股利分配決策之間存在顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；當(dāng)上市公司高管對(duì)下一年度的預(yù)期收益小于當(dāng)年的實(shí)際收益時(shí),高管過度自信與上市公司股利分配決策之間存在顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)論能支持理論模型的結(jié)論。 最后在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the executives of listed companies in our country are prone to overconfidence in their decision-making, it makes them deviate from rational decisions, which will have an impact on the company. Through the literature research on the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution decision, we find that some empirical results are positive correlation, and others are negative correlation. Based on this, this paper studies the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution by theoretical analysis under what conditions, and through empirical research to test whether this relationship is true or not. This will standardize the decision making behavior of dividend distribution of listed companies in China, explore the decision-making mechanism of dividend distribution of listed companies, improve the quality of listed companies, and then ensure the health and stability of China's securities market. Sustainable development has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper firstly combs the relevant theories and defines the definition of overconfidence by studying the relevant literature at home and abroad. Secondly, from the perspective of personal psychological bias and decision-making environment, this paper analyzes the overconfidence psychological preference of senior executives of listed companies in China, and finds out the appropriate alternative variables to measure the overconfidence of senior executives in Chinese listed companies. After that, the theoretical relationship between overconfidence and dividend allocation decision is deduced. When the overconfident executives expect that the market environment-risk return coefficient of the investment project is greater than the average of the market environment risk-return coefficient in the actual operation of the company, The level of dividend distribution is negatively correlated with its overconfidence; When the overconfident executives expect that the return coefficient of market environment risk is smaller than the average of the market environment risk- return coefficient in the actual operation of the company, the dividend distribution level is positively correlated with its overconfidence. In order to test the correctness of the conclusion of the theoretical relationship, this paper takes the data of the stock ownership of senior executives and the decision of dividend allocation in China's listed companies from 2007 to 2009 as the research samples, and constructs a statistical model of the influence of overconfidence on the dividend distribution decision. And carries on the empirical analysis. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative correlation between executive overconfidence and dividend allocation decision when the expected income of the listed company in the next year is higher than that of the actual return in the current year. When the expected income of the listed company for the next year is less than the actual income of the current year, there is a significant positive correlation between the overconfidence of the executives and the dividend allocation decision of the listed company. The empirical conclusion can support the conclusion of the theoretical model. Finally, the corresponding suggestions are put forward on the basis of theoretical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51;F224

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