【摘要】：國債是政府調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟的一種工具，在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中起著不可替代的作用，但是，由于國債利用不當引起的債務危機，給經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來了極大的危害。中國在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中也面臨著債務規(guī)模越來越大的壓力。因此，需要建立中國合理國債規(guī)�；鶞�，尋求合理國債規(guī)模途徑，從而確立中國合理國債的規(guī)模，通過合理國債規(guī)模發(fā)揮國債對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的積極作用，并約束國債規(guī)模，避免國債規(guī)模過大而引起債務危機。一個國家的負債可分為主觀負債和客觀負債，，這兩種負債訴求在現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟生活中所發(fā)揮的作用和達到的目標是不同的，由此可以界定出負債率的經(jīng)濟意義。根據(jù)這一國債形成的機理，研究制約中國國債規(guī)模的相關(guān)因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上分別分析了國債指標對國債規(guī)模的制約和國債結(jié)構(gòu)對國債規(guī)模的制約；確立了中國合理國債規(guī)模的基準，建立起中國合理國債指標體系，并提出合理國債規(guī)模獲取的途徑，其中重點是利用SPSS統(tǒng)計軟件，通過ARIMA方法與Expert Modeler方法做時間序列預測，根據(jù)赤字-債務動態(tài)模型和有效需求理論，并結(jié)合中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況，建立起合理國債規(guī)模的指標體系。該體系對中國國內(nèi)債務規(guī)模進行了具體的約束，同時也擴大了外債規(guī)模的范圍，對中國國內(nèi)債務規(guī)模的約束主要是根據(jù)中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況計算出合理負債率、居民應債能力、合理赤字率和合理國債依存度指標，將國債規(guī)�？刂圃诟骱侠碇笜说姆秶畠�(nèi)。從而實現(xiàn)了獲取合理國債規(guī)模的目的。
[Abstract]:National debt is a tool for the government to regulate the economy and plays an irreplaceable role in the development of modern economy. However, due to the debt crisis caused by improper use of national debt, it brings great harm to the economic development. China is also facing growing pressure on the size of its debt in its economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a reasonable national debt scale standard in China, to seek a reasonable national debt scale approach, so as to establish the scale of China's reasonable national debt, to play a positive role in the economic development through the rational national debt scale, and to restrain the national debt scale. Avoid debt crisis caused by excessive size of national debt. The debt of a country can be divided into subjective debt and objective liability. The two kinds of debt demands play different roles and achieve different goals in real economic life, so the economic significance of debt ratio can be defined. According to the formation mechanism of this national debt, this paper studies the relevant factors that restrict the scale of China's national debt, and analyzes the restriction of the national debt index on the scale of the national debt and the restriction of the structure of the national debt on the scale of the national debt. This paper establishes the benchmark of the reasonable national debt scale in China, establishes the index system of the reasonable national debt in China, and puts forward the way to obtain the reasonable national debt scale. The emphasis is to make the time series prediction by using the SPSS statistical software, the ARIMA method and the Expert Modeler method. According to the dynamic model of deficit and debt and the theory of effective demand, and combined with the economic development of China, the index system of reasonable national debt scale is established. The system has concretely restricted the scale of China's domestic debt, and at the same time expanded the scope of the scale of foreign debt. The constraint on the scale of China's domestic debt is mainly to calculate the reasonable debt ratio and residents' debt capacity according to the state of China's economic development. The reasonable deficit rate and the reasonable national debt dependence index control the scale of the national debt within the range of each reasonable index. In order to achieve the goal of obtaining reasonable national debt scale.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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