【摘要】：隨著我國資本市場的完善和發(fā)展壯大,貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道也越來越受到重視。基于各國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和資本市場發(fā)展完善程度的不同以及貨幣政策的操作方式不同,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對貨幣政策的反應(yīng)程度在現(xiàn)實(shí)層面也會(huì)存在差異。房地產(chǎn)和股票資產(chǎn)作為兩個(gè)重要的資產(chǎn),其價(jià)格與貨幣政策的關(guān)系也成為國內(nèi)外研究的熱點(diǎn)問題。因此,研究貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道以及其傳導(dǎo)效果會(huì)對我國貨幣政策的制定和執(zhí)行有一定的參考意義。 本文以房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和股票價(jià)格為研究對象,選取了可以代表貨幣政策的常用變量,如貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率和信貸總量,分析了貨幣政策與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系。根據(jù)托賓Q理論、財(cái)富效應(yīng)理論及資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表理論等,分析了貨幣政策對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的渠道,并以實(shí)證手段研究了貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的具體影響,針對實(shí)證結(jié)果提出了政策建議。希望能為完善我國資本市場,有效發(fā)揮資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道,提高貨幣政策的有效性起到一定的指導(dǎo)作用。本文是在前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,通過一定的理論和實(shí)證分析,來探討我國貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道是否明顯,貨幣政策是否對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生顯著影響,以及反過來資產(chǎn)價(jià)格是否會(huì)影響貨幣政策。內(nèi)容安排主要分為四大部分： 第一部分為前言。首先介紹了論文選題的背景和意義,說明研究貨幣政策資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道的必要性。接著分為三個(gè)小節(jié),從貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道存在性、股票市場、房地產(chǎn)市場三個(gè)角度進(jìn)行了國內(nèi)外的文獻(xiàn)綜述。最后給出了本文的分析框架,說明了本文的研究特點(diǎn)及其不足之處。其中特點(diǎn)是本文運(yùn)用可得的數(shù)據(jù),選取了需要研究的內(nèi)容直接作為解釋變量,分別對股票市場和房地產(chǎn)市場,通過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析,得出了要研究的結(jié)論。很大程度上證明了前面理論中闡述的利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量對股票價(jià)格和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響過程及影響的具體效果。在實(shí)證結(jié)果之后,針對實(shí)證的結(jié)果,結(jié)合我國現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,提出了一些政策建議。不足之處：本文在進(jìn)行理論和實(shí)證研究時(shí),只是研究了貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道,即如何從貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)到資產(chǎn)價(jià)格,以及資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對貨幣政策的影響,并沒有考慮實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的問題。至于資產(chǎn)價(jià)格及其變動(dòng)如何對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)比如消費(fèi)和投資等產(chǎn)生何種影響,具體的影響過程如何,有待在以后的學(xué)習(xí)中進(jìn)行深入探討。 第二部分為貨幣政策資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)理論。首先對文章中用到的幾個(gè)基本概念做了界定,接著從貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的傳統(tǒng)渠道入手,分析了利率渠道、信貸渠道、匯率渠道傳導(dǎo)的理論和三種理論目前在我國傳導(dǎo)的現(xiàn)狀。最后研究了貨幣政策的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道,從理論角度分為托賓的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)理論、莫迪利安尼和弗里德曼的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)理論和布魯納與梅爾查的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)理論等方面進(jìn)行研究；然后結(jié)合宏觀調(diào)控中最常用的貨幣政策工具(利率、貨幣供應(yīng)量、信貸規(guī)模),對貨幣政策工具的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)渠道進(jìn)行了具體分析。 第三部分為論文的實(shí)證。首先介紹了論文中所采用的理論模型和研究方法。主要介紹了單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、向量自回歸(VAR)模型以及基于VAR脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),為實(shí)證分析的操作提供理論依據(jù)。接著說明了實(shí)證分析中樣本數(shù)據(jù)的來源,變量的選擇及處理。最后是得出了實(shí)證結(jié)果。協(xié)整和脈沖函數(shù)模型實(shí)證認(rèn)為：長期來說,利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量對房價(jià)和股價(jià)有正向關(guān)系。短期來說,貨幣供應(yīng)量和利率對房價(jià)先產(chǎn)生正的響應(yīng),隨著時(shí)間的推移,響應(yīng)逐漸變?nèi)?利率甚至?xí)a(chǎn)生負(fù)的響應(yīng)；貨幣供應(yīng)量對股價(jià)產(chǎn)生正向的響應(yīng),且強(qiáng)度逐漸變?nèi)�。利率對股價(jià)會(huì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)的響應(yīng),并且也是變?nèi)醯摹?第四部分為論文的結(jié)論和政策建議。通過前面理論和實(shí)證部分的分析,本文認(rèn)為貨幣政策可以影響房地產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格指數(shù)。一方面貨幣供應(yīng)量影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。短期來看,貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加會(huì)對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生正面沖擊。貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加不僅能夠提高投資者的投資需求和投機(jī)需求。而且能夠降低銀行利率,進(jìn)而使房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上升。長期來看貨幣供應(yīng)量對房地產(chǎn)有正相關(guān)關(guān)系,即隨著市場上貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加,房地產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格不斷增長。另一方面利率影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。短期來看,利率的正向沖擊會(huì)對房地產(chǎn)市場有一個(gè)負(fù)向的影響。長期來看,我國的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與利率有相同的變化趨勢。房地產(chǎn)市場收益率相對較高會(huì)吸引更多資金進(jìn)入,同時(shí)利率的上升導(dǎo)致開發(fā)商的融資成本上升,房產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲。另外,貨幣政策可以影響股價(jià)。一方面,貨幣供應(yīng)量可以影響股價(jià)。從短期來看,貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加會(huì)使貨幣由于逐利特性進(jìn)入股票市場,從而對股票的需求增大,打破了股票之前的供需平衡,從而投資者會(huì)增加對股票資產(chǎn)的持有數(shù)量,在供給不變時(shí),導(dǎo)致股票資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲。長期來看,貨幣供應(yīng)量與股票價(jià)格有正相關(guān)影響,投資者會(huì)加大對股票的投資,導(dǎo)致股票價(jià)格最終上漲。另一方面利率可以影響股價(jià)。短期來看,利率的正向沖擊會(huì)對股價(jià)有一個(gè)負(fù)向的響應(yīng)。當(dāng)短期內(nèi)利率上升時(shí),利率的強(qiáng)大信號作用,會(huì)使投資者產(chǎn)生一種貨幣緊縮、股票價(jià)格下跌的預(yù)期。但是長期來看,上證綜合指數(shù)與利率變化趨勢相同,呈不斷增長的態(tài)勢。最后,在對結(jié)果進(jìn)行實(shí)證和具體情況分析的基礎(chǔ)之上，，從貨幣政策的制定應(yīng)該關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價(jià)格,完善房地產(chǎn)和股票市場機(jī)制,優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),完善資本市場和優(yōu)化房地產(chǎn)需求和供給結(jié)果四個(gè)角度提出了一些政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the improvement and development of the capital market in China, the channel of asset price transmission of monetary policy has also been paid more and more attention. Based on the different economic structure and the development of capital market, and the different operating modes of monetary policy, the response degree of asset price to monetary policy will also be different in the real level. As two important assets, the relationship between the price and the monetary policy has become a hot issue at home and abroad. Therefore, the study of the conduction channel and the conduction effect of the monetary policy will have some reference significance to the formulation and implementation of the monetary policy in China.
Taking the real estate price and the stock price as the research object, this paper selects the common variables that can represent the monetary policy, such as the money supply, interest rate and the total amount of credit, and analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and asset price. According to Tobin's Q theory, wealth effect theory and balance sheet theory, the paper analyzes the price of monetary policy to asset prices. The impact of the channel, and empirical means to study the money supply, the specific impact of interest rates on asset prices, and put forward the policy recommendations in view of the empirical results. Hope to improve our capital market, effectively play the channel of asset price transmission, improve the effectiveness of monetary policy has a certain guiding role. This paper is in the previous research results. On the basis of a certain theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper discusses whether the asset price channel of monetary policy is obvious in China, whether the monetary policy has a significant impact on the asset price and whether the asset price will affect the monetary policy. The content arrangement is divided into four main parts.
The first part is preface. First, it introduces the background and significance of the topic selection, explains the necessity of studying the transmission channel of monetary policy asset price, and then divides it into three sections. It summarizes the literature review from three angles of monetary policy transmission channel, stock market and real estate market. Finally, it gives the analysis frame of this paper. It shows the characteristics and shortcomings of this paper, which is characterized by the use of available data in this paper, which selects the content that needs to be studied directly as an explanatory variable, and draws the conclusion of the study in the stock market and the real estate market through unit root test, cointegration model and impulse response function analysis. The impact process and effect of interest rate and money supply on stock price and real estate price are explained in the previous theory. After the empirical results, some policy suggestions are put forward in view of the empirical results and the actual situation in China. The channel of asset price transmission of currency policy, that is, how to transmit from monetary policy to asset price, and the effect of asset price on monetary policy, does not take into account the problem of the real economy. As to how asset prices and their changes have impact on the macro-economy such as consumption and investment, the specific impact process needs to be taken. Further study is carried out in the later study.
The second part is the theory of monetary policy asset price transmission. First, it defines several basic concepts used in the article. Then, starting with the traditional channel of monetary policy transmission, it analyzes the current situation of the transmission of interest rate channels, credit channels, exchange rate channel conduction and the three theories in our country. Finally, it studies the monetary policy. The channel of asset price transmission is divided into Tobin's monetary policy transmission theory from the theoretical point of view, Modigliani and Freedman's monetary policy transmission theory and Bruner and Melcha's monetary policy transmission theory, and then combine the most commonly used monetary policy tools (interest rate, money supply, credit) in macroeconomic regulation and control. Scale, and conduct a detailed analysis of the transmission channels of asset prices of monetary policy instruments.
The third part is the empirical analysis of the paper. First, it introduces the theoretical model and research method used in this paper. It mainly introduces unit root test, cointegration test, vector autoregression (VAR) model and VAR impulse response function, which provides theoretical basis for the operation of empirical analysis. In the long run, the interest rate and the money supply have a positive relationship with the price and the price of the price. In the short term, the monetary supply and interest rate have a positive response to the house price, and the response gradually becomes weaker and the interest rate may even be negative over time. Response: Money supply has a positive response to stock prices, and the intensity is gradually weakening. Interest rates have a negative response to stock prices and are weakening.
The fourth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion of the paper. Through the analysis of the previous theory and the empirical part, this paper thinks that monetary policy can affect the real estate price index. On the one hand, the money supply affects the real estate price. In the short term, the increase of money supply will have a positive impact on the real estate price. The increase of money supply will increase. It can not only improve the investor's investment demand and speculative demand, but also reduce the bank interest rate and increase the real estate price. In the long run, there is a positive correlation between the money supply and real estate, that is, the price of real estate increases with the increase of the money supply in the market. On the other hand, the interest rate affects the real estate price. In the short term, the positive impact of interest rates will have a negative impact on the real estate market. In the long run, the real estate prices and interest rates have the same trend of change. The relatively high returns in the real estate market will attract more money, while the increase in interest rates leads to the increase in the cost of the developer's financing and the rise in the property price. In addition, the price of the real estate is rising. Monetary policy can affect the stock price. On the one hand, the money supply can affect the stock price. In the short term, the increase in the money supply will cause the currency to enter the stock market because of the advantage of the profit, which will increase the demand for the stock, break the balance of supply and demand before the stock, and thus the investor will increase the holding quantity of the stock assets, and the supply will not be supplied. In the long run, the stock price has a positive correlation with the stock price, and the investor will increase the investment to the stock, which leads to the ultimate rise in the stock price. On the other hand, the interest rate can affect the stock price. In the short term, the positive impact of the interest rate will have a negative response to the stock price. In the short term, the interest rate is on the interest rate. The strong signal effect of interest rate will make the investor produce a kind of monetary tightening and the expectation of the stock price fall. But in the long run, the Shanghai Composite Index and the interest rate trend are the same, showing a growing trend. Finally, on the basis of the empirical and specific analysis of the results, the formulation of monetary policy should be concerned. The price of assets, the improvement of the real estate and stock market mechanism, the optimization of economic structure, the improvement of capital market and the optimization of the real estate demand and the results of supply, put forward some policy suggestions in four aspects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F822.0;F293.3;F224

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