發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-20 09:45

【摘要】：股利信號(hào)傳遞理論研究表明，現(xiàn)金股利政策傳遞了上市公司未來(lái)盈利方面的信息。由于國(guó)內(nèi)的股利政策制定正還處在一個(gè)不斷成熟的過(guò)程中，學(xué)者的研究結(jié)論表明現(xiàn)金股利的信息傳遞作用在我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)不完全適用，即現(xiàn)金股利的變動(dòng)不能預(yù)測(cè)下一期的盈利變動(dòng)；但有研究表明發(fā)放現(xiàn)金紅利的上市公司未來(lái)的盈利能力更好，持續(xù)性更強(qiáng)。另外，連續(xù)發(fā)放現(xiàn)金紅利的上市公司的股價(jià)波動(dòng)與過(guò)去業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng)呈顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)性。國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者研究表明雖然股利信號(hào)傳遞信息能力在我國(guó)市場(chǎng)不能完美實(shí)現(xiàn)，但現(xiàn)金股利還是能傳遞出公司的盈利質(zhì)量某方面信息。 本文認(rèn)為現(xiàn)金股利能傳遞上市公司未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng)信息，現(xiàn)金股利政策體現(xiàn)了上市公司管理層對(duì)公司未來(lái)盈利穩(wěn)定性的看好，發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的上市公司未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng)顯著小于不發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的公司。通過(guò)對(duì)2001年-2010年上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅樣本進(jìn)行實(shí)證回歸，結(jié)果表明：上市公司現(xiàn)金分紅與未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng)顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，而且現(xiàn)金分紅與賬面市值比、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率等指標(biāo)成為衡量公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)穩(wěn)健的有效手段。另外，上市公司連續(xù)的現(xiàn)金分紅政策能更為有效的解釋未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)的波動(dòng)，這種以連續(xù)現(xiàn)金流出的政策表明了上市公司管理層對(duì)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)穩(wěn)定和持續(xù)性更為看好。最后，為了剔除股票股利的影響進(jìn)行了純現(xiàn)金股利與經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng)回歸，結(jié)果表明在大樣本下結(jié)果基本一致；在分年度回歸中2001年樣本中現(xiàn)金股利虛擬變量回歸系數(shù)不顯著，進(jìn)一步分析判斷表明很可能是受到當(dāng)年政策推出的影響；連續(xù)樣本回歸結(jié)果表明純現(xiàn)金股利的信號(hào)傳遞效應(yīng)進(jìn)一步得到提高。 研究表明現(xiàn)金分紅能傳遞管理層對(duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)穩(wěn)定的一種預(yù)期，是一種有效的會(huì)計(jì)性導(dǎo)向工具,能減小信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)現(xiàn)象。同時(shí)，現(xiàn)金股利不僅給予投資者一定的回報(bào)，而且削弱了投資者僅僅指望股價(jià)上漲給自己來(lái)來(lái)回報(bào)的期望，，從而減少了過(guò)度交易現(xiàn)象，引導(dǎo)投資者回歸理性，加大對(duì)關(guān)注公司的關(guān)注,最終提高市場(chǎng)效率。
[Abstract]:The research of dividend signaling theory shows that the cash dividend policy conveys the future earnings information of listed companies. As the domestic dividend policy is still in the process of maturing, the research results show that the information transmission function of cash dividend is not fully applicable in China's capital market. That is, the change of cash dividend can not predict the next earnings change, but some studies show that listed companies that pay cash dividends have better profitability and more sustainability in the future. In addition, there is a significant negative correlation between stock price volatility and past earnings volatility of listed companies with continuous cash dividends. The research of domestic scholars shows that although the ability of dividend signal transmission information can not be realized perfectly in our country, cash dividend can still transmit some information about the company's profit quality. This paper holds that cash dividend can transmit the information of future operating performance fluctuation of listed companies, and the cash dividend policy reflects the positive attitude of the management of listed companies to the future profit stability of the listed companies. The volatility of future operating performance of listed companies paying cash dividends is significantly lower than that of companies without cash dividends. Through the empirical regression of cash dividend samples of listed companies from 2001 to 2010, the results show that the cash dividend of listed companies is negatively correlated with the future operating performance fluctuation, and the cash dividend has a negative correlation with the market value ratio of book value. Asset-liability ratio and other indicators have become an effective means to measure the stability of the company's business performance. In addition, the continuous cash dividend policy of listed companies can explain the fluctuation of future business performance more effectively. This continuous cash outflow policy shows that the management of listed companies is more optimistic about the stability and sustainability of the company's operating performance. Finally, in order to eliminate the influence of stock dividend, the regression of pure cash dividend and operating performance fluctuation is carried out. The results show that the results are basically the same in large sample, and the regression coefficient of virtual variable of cash dividend in 2001 sample is not significant in the annual regression. Further analysis indicates that it is likely to be affected by the introduction of policy in the current year, and the result of continuous sample regression shows that the signal transmission effect of pure cash dividend is further improved. The research shows that cash dividend can transfer the expectation of management's future performance stability, is an effective accounting guidance tool, and can reduce the information asymmetry phenomenon. At the same time, the cash dividend not only gives a certain return to investors, but also weakens the expectation that investors can only expect the stock price to rise to themselves, thus reducing the phenomenon of excessive trading and guiding investors to return to rationality. Pay more attention to the concern of the company, and ultimately improve the efficiency of the market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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