德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金籌資和投資驅(qū)動(dòng)因素分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-18 07:39
【摘要】：私募股權(quán)基金是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一項(xiàng)重要金融支撐。經(jīng)過(guò)了近50年的發(fā)展,德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金進(jìn)入了高速增長(zhǎng)期,并成為德國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)不可或缺的組成部分。在獨(dú)特的經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化、法律和稅收制度等背景下,德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出獨(dú)特的特點(diǎn),也帶來(lái)成功的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。因此,本文選擇德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金籌資和投資驅(qū)動(dòng)因素為研究主題,通過(guò)挖掘德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金在1991年至2010年間的高速增長(zhǎng)發(fā)展階段,其籌資和投資受到的具體影響因素,希望有助于我們更深地理解促進(jìn)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展的有效措施。中國(guó)目前正處于私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展初期階段,可以借鑒德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 本文首先全面闡釋了私募股權(quán)基金的概念、組織形式和運(yùn)作流程。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文介紹了德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展面臨的外部環(huán)境,及其從60年代至今的發(fā)展歷程,并進(jìn)一步分析了在高速增長(zhǎng)階段,其籌資、投資和撤資的運(yùn)作特點(diǎn)。接著,本文開(kāi)始對(duì)德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金籌資和投資的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。首先,本文定性地分析了德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金籌資和投資的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,接著對(duì)這些驅(qū)動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行定量的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),并對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。最后,本文對(duì)中國(guó)目前私募股權(quán)基金的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和面臨的挑戰(zhàn)進(jìn)行論述,并總結(jié)德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)給中國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展帶來(lái)的啟示。 本文在Jeng和Well(2000)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素計(jì)量模型的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行拓展,通過(guò)采用1991年至2010年間德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金籌資額和投資額作為因變量,并在模型的自變量中重點(diǎn)考慮了德國(guó)公開(kāi)發(fā)行上市企業(yè)數(shù)量(IPOs)、德國(guó)并購(gòu)交易額占GDP比重、德國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)交易指數(shù)DAX增長(zhǎng)率、德國(guó)中小企業(yè)自有資本率和德國(guó)自我雇傭比率等驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于,本文分析模型中不僅考慮了之前被學(xué)者研究過(guò)的諸多驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,同時(shí)結(jié)合了德國(guó)私募股權(quán)基金發(fā)展的獨(dú)特性,引入新的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素(包括德國(guó)中小企業(yè)自有資本率、德國(guó)自我雇傭比率等)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。此外,本文在前人對(duì)早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資和后期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資兩類私募股權(quán)基金投資進(jìn)行分類分析的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步分析了杠桿收購(gòu)的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,以驗(yàn)證早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資、擴(kuò)張階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資和杠桿收購(gòu)這三類投資是否受相同的因素驅(qū)動(dòng)。再者,本文將私募股權(quán)基金的總籌資額按籌資來(lái)源劃分,并對(duì)銀行、養(yǎng)老基金、政府和其他四類籌資額進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),以驗(yàn)證不同來(lái)源的籌資額是否受到相同因素的驅(qū)動(dòng)。 對(duì)私募股權(quán)基金籌資的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析后,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)總體上新基金籌資額的高低主要取決于研發(fā)增長(zhǎng)率、企業(yè)家精神和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮程度。分類看來(lái),來(lái)自于銀行的新基金籌資額的高低主要取決于DAX增長(zhǎng)率、失業(yè)率和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮程度。而并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮是推動(dòng)來(lái)自于養(yǎng)老基金的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額的最關(guān)鍵因素。而并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)的繁榮和研發(fā)支出增長(zhǎng)率是影響來(lái)自于政府的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額的關(guān)鍵因素。而對(duì)于個(gè)人投資者和公司等其他來(lái)源的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額來(lái)說(shuō),關(guān)鍵的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是失業(yè)率、企業(yè)家精神和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮程度�？傊�,不同類別的籌資都受到了并購(gòu)交易額占GDP比重這一驅(qū)動(dòng)因素的影響,而不受IPO企業(yè)數(shù)量這一變量的影響,說(shuō)明德國(guó)IPO市場(chǎng)相對(duì)于并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)較為不繁榮,因而過(guò)去20年來(lái),德國(guó)并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展是推動(dòng)德國(guó)私募股權(quán)新基金籌資額增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵因素。此外,不同類別的籌資還受到了不同因素的驅(qū)動(dòng)。其中,來(lái)自銀行的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額還受到了DAX指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)率的驅(qū)動(dòng)。隨著DAX指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)率提高,銀行資產(chǎn)和盈利能力提高,推動(dòng)了來(lái)自銀行的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額的提高。而來(lái)自政府的私募股權(quán)基金籌資額則受到了研發(fā)增長(zhǎng)率的驅(qū)動(dòng),因?yàn)檠邪l(fā)帶來(lái)的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的投資機(jī)會(huì)往往是政府資金介入私募股權(quán)基金的關(guān)鍵原因。而對(duì)于個(gè)人投資者和公司等其他來(lái)源的私募股權(quán)基金的籌資來(lái)說(shuō),企業(yè)家精神則是關(guān)鍵的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。 對(duì)私募股權(quán)基金投資的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析后,本文發(fā)現(xiàn),總投資額的高低主要取決于利率、失業(yè)率、股票市值增長(zhǎng)率、企業(yè)家精神和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮程度。分類看來(lái),早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額的增長(zhǎng)主要受IPO市場(chǎng)和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)的繁榮的推動(dòng),同時(shí)加入失業(yè)率和利率后,IPO企業(yè)數(shù)量和并購(gòu)交易額占GDP比重的顯著性提高。其次,擴(kuò)張階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額的增長(zhǎng)主要受并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮程度而非IPO市場(chǎng)繁榮程度的影響,同時(shí)加入失業(yè)率和利率后,并購(gòu)交易額占GDP比重的顯著性提高。最后,杠桿收購(gòu)?fù)顿Y額最重要的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是利率,而股票市值增長(zhǎng)率、研發(fā)增長(zhǎng)率和IPO企業(yè)數(shù)量均對(duì)杠桿收購(gòu)?fù)顿Y額變動(dòng)有貢獻(xiàn)。此外,雖然不同類別的投資都受到了利率這一因素的影響,但利率對(duì)于杠桿收購(gòu)的重要性遠(yuǎn)高于早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資和擴(kuò)張階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。而雖然IPO市場(chǎng)和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)所代表的退出渠道是否通暢是驅(qū)動(dòng)早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額和擴(kuò)張階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額變動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵因素。然而,早期階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額的增長(zhǎng)同時(shí)受IPO市場(chǎng)和并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)的影響,而擴(kuò)張階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資額的增長(zhǎng)則主要受并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)繁榮的推動(dòng),而與IPO市場(chǎng)無(wú)顯著相關(guān)性。
[Abstract]:Private equity fund is an important financial support for economic development. After nearly 50 years of development, the German private equity fund has entered a period of rapid growth and has become an integral part of the German financial market. Therefore, this paper chooses the driving factors of the fund-raising and investment of the German private equity fund as the research topic, and through the excavation of the rapid growth and development stage of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, the specific impact factors of its financing and investment are expected to help us to further understand the promotion. The effective measures for the development of private equity fund. China is now in the early stage of the development of private equity fund, which can draw on the successful experience of the development of the German private equity fund.
This paper first comprehensively explains the concept, form and operation process of private equity fund. On this basis, this paper introduces the external environment of the development of the German private equity fund, and its development from 60s to the present, and further analyzes the operation characteristics of the financing, investment and withdrawal in the high speed growth stage. This paper begins with an empirical analysis of the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund. First, this paper analyzes the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund, and then carries out a quantitative empirical test on these driving factors and analyzes the empirical results. Finally, the present private equity in China is presented in this paper. The development status and challenges of the fund are discussed, and the Enlightenment from the development experience of the German private equity fund to the development of China's private equity fund is summarized.
On the basis of Jeng and Well (2000) driving factor model, this paper extends the amount and amount of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, and focuses on the number of publicly listed companies in Germany (IPOs) in the independent variables of the model, and the German merger and acquisition transactions account for the proportion of GDP, and the German securities The growth rate of market trading index DAX, the driving factors of the private capital rate and the self employment ratio of German small and medium enterprises, the innovation point of this paper is that this analysis model not only considers many driving factors which have been studied by scholars before, but also combines the uniqueness of the development of German private equity fund and introduces new driving factors. In addition, on the basis of the previous classification and analysis of two types of private equity funds in early stage venture investment and late stage venture investment, this paper further analyzes the driving factors of the bar purchase in order to verify the early stage risk. Investment, the three types of investment and leveraged buyout are driven by the same factors. Furthermore, this paper divides the total financing amount of the private equity fund according to the sources of financing, and tests the banks, pension funds, the government and other four types of funds to verify whether the financing amount of different sources is subject to the same factors. Drive.
After an empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund raising, this paper finds that the overall fund raising of the new fund depends mainly on the growth rate of R & D, the spirit of entrepreneurship and the prosperity of the M & a market. It seems that the main financing of the new fund from the bank depends on the DAX growth rate, the unemployment rate and the complex market. The prosperity of the M & a market is the most important factor in promoting the financing of private equity funds from pension funds. The prosperity of the M & a market and the growth rate of R & D expenditure are the key factors affecting the financing of private equity funds from the government. Private equity funds for individual investors and other sources such as companies are the key factors. In terms of funding, the key drivers are the unemployment rate, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity of the M & a market. In a word, different types of financing are affected by the driving factor of the share of GDP, which is not influenced by the number of IPO enterprises, indicating that the German IPO market is more unprosperous than the M & a market. The rapid development of the German merger and acquisition market in the past 20 years has been a key factor in promoting the growth of the fund raising of the new German private equity fund. In addition, different types of financing have been driven by different factors. Among them, the financing of private equity funds from banks is also driven by the growth rate of the DAX index. With the increase of the DAX index, Higher, higher bank assets and higher profitability have promoted the increase in private equity funds from the banks. Private equity funds from the government are driven by R & D growth rate, because the investment opportunities of emerging industries brought by R & D are often the key reason for the government funds to intervene in private equity funds. Entrepreneurship is the key driver for the financing of private equity funds from other sources, such as individual investors and companies.
After the empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund investment, this paper finds that the total amount of investment depends mainly on the interest rate, the unemployment rate, the growth rate of stock market value, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity degree of the M & a market. After joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the number of IPO enterprises and the amount of M & A transactions accounted for a significant increase in the proportion of GDP. Secondly, the increase of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage is mainly influenced by the prosperity degree of the M & a market rather than the prosperity of the IPO market, at the same time, after joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the proportion of the purchase and transaction amount to the proportion of GDP is significantly increased. The most important driving factor is the interest rate, and the stock market value growth rate, the R & D growth rate and the number of IPO enterprises contribute to the change of the leveraged buy-out investment. In addition, although the different types of investment are affected by the factor of interest rate, the interest rate is much more important than the early stage venture investment. However, the growth of the early stage risk investment is affected by the IPO market and the purchase market, while the expansion stage venture investment is the key factor in the early stage of venture investment and the change of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage. The growth is mainly driven by the prosperity of the M & a market, but has no significant correlation with the IPO market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F835.16
本文編號(hào)：2131211
[Abstract]:Private equity fund is an important financial support for economic development. After nearly 50 years of development, the German private equity fund has entered a period of rapid growth and has become an integral part of the German financial market. Therefore, this paper chooses the driving factors of the fund-raising and investment of the German private equity fund as the research topic, and through the excavation of the rapid growth and development stage of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, the specific impact factors of its financing and investment are expected to help us to further understand the promotion. The effective measures for the development of private equity fund. China is now in the early stage of the development of private equity fund, which can draw on the successful experience of the development of the German private equity fund.
This paper first comprehensively explains the concept, form and operation process of private equity fund. On this basis, this paper introduces the external environment of the development of the German private equity fund, and its development from 60s to the present, and further analyzes the operation characteristics of the financing, investment and withdrawal in the high speed growth stage. This paper begins with an empirical analysis of the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund. First, this paper analyzes the driving factors of the financing and investment of the German private equity fund, and then carries out a quantitative empirical test on these driving factors and analyzes the empirical results. Finally, the present private equity in China is presented in this paper. The development status and challenges of the fund are discussed, and the Enlightenment from the development experience of the German private equity fund to the development of China's private equity fund is summarized.
On the basis of Jeng and Well (2000) driving factor model, this paper extends the amount and amount of the German private equity fund from 1991 to 2010, and focuses on the number of publicly listed companies in Germany (IPOs) in the independent variables of the model, and the German merger and acquisition transactions account for the proportion of GDP, and the German securities The growth rate of market trading index DAX, the driving factors of the private capital rate and the self employment ratio of German small and medium enterprises, the innovation point of this paper is that this analysis model not only considers many driving factors which have been studied by scholars before, but also combines the uniqueness of the development of German private equity fund and introduces new driving factors. In addition, on the basis of the previous classification and analysis of two types of private equity funds in early stage venture investment and late stage venture investment, this paper further analyzes the driving factors of the bar purchase in order to verify the early stage risk. Investment, the three types of investment and leveraged buyout are driven by the same factors. Furthermore, this paper divides the total financing amount of the private equity fund according to the sources of financing, and tests the banks, pension funds, the government and other four types of funds to verify whether the financing amount of different sources is subject to the same factors. Drive.
After an empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund raising, this paper finds that the overall fund raising of the new fund depends mainly on the growth rate of R & D, the spirit of entrepreneurship and the prosperity of the M & a market. It seems that the main financing of the new fund from the bank depends on the DAX growth rate, the unemployment rate and the complex market. The prosperity of the M & a market is the most important factor in promoting the financing of private equity funds from pension funds. The prosperity of the M & a market and the growth rate of R & D expenditure are the key factors affecting the financing of private equity funds from the government. Private equity funds for individual investors and other sources such as companies are the key factors. In terms of funding, the key drivers are the unemployment rate, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity of the M & a market. In a word, different types of financing are affected by the driving factor of the share of GDP, which is not influenced by the number of IPO enterprises, indicating that the German IPO market is more unprosperous than the M & a market. The rapid development of the German merger and acquisition market in the past 20 years has been a key factor in promoting the growth of the fund raising of the new German private equity fund. In addition, different types of financing have been driven by different factors. Among them, the financing of private equity funds from banks is also driven by the growth rate of the DAX index. With the increase of the DAX index, Higher, higher bank assets and higher profitability have promoted the increase in private equity funds from the banks. Private equity funds from the government are driven by R & D growth rate, because the investment opportunities of emerging industries brought by R & D are often the key reason for the government funds to intervene in private equity funds. Entrepreneurship is the key driver for the financing of private equity funds from other sources, such as individual investors and companies.
After the empirical analysis of the driving factors of private equity fund investment, this paper finds that the total amount of investment depends mainly on the interest rate, the unemployment rate, the growth rate of stock market value, the entrepreneurial spirit and the prosperity degree of the M & a market. After joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the number of IPO enterprises and the amount of M & A transactions accounted for a significant increase in the proportion of GDP. Secondly, the increase of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage is mainly influenced by the prosperity degree of the M & a market rather than the prosperity of the IPO market, at the same time, after joining the unemployment rate and interest rate, the proportion of the purchase and transaction amount to the proportion of GDP is significantly increased. The most important driving factor is the interest rate, and the stock market value growth rate, the R & D growth rate and the number of IPO enterprises contribute to the change of the leveraged buy-out investment. In addition, although the different types of investment are affected by the factor of interest rate, the interest rate is much more important than the early stage venture investment. However, the growth of the early stage risk investment is affected by the IPO market and the purchase market, while the expansion stage venture investment is the key factor in the early stage of venture investment and the change of the amount of venture capital in the expansion stage. The growth is mainly driven by the prosperity of the M & a market, but has no significant correlation with the IPO market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F835.16
【共引文獻(xiàn)】
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