本文選題：地方政府債券 + 信用風險��； 參考：《沈陽大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國1994年《預算法》第二十八條規(guī)定：“地方各級預算按照量入為出、收支平衡的原則編制，不列赤字。除法律和國務院另有規(guī)定外，地方政府不得發(fā)行地方政府債券”。2008年國際金融危機對我國經(jīng)濟造成嚴重沖擊，中央政府推出4萬億元經(jīng)濟刺激計劃。為了緩解地方政府在刺激計劃中的資金瓶頸，從2009年開始中央政府代地方政府發(fā)行2000億元地方政府債券。經(jīng)過兩三年的運作，地方政府已積累了一些債務管理的經(jīng)驗。從2011年開始，地方政府自行發(fā)債試點啟動并取得了一定的成功，也得到了市場的普遍認可。此次試點工作的推出是地方債發(fā)行方式的重大變革。未來我國地方政府債券將經(jīng)歷“代理發(fā)債→自行發(fā)債→自主發(fā)債”的演變。 從2009年至2012年，中央已連續(xù)四年批準地方政府債券，說明中央政府已不是把發(fā)行地方政府債券作為挽救經(jīng)濟危機的臨時舉措，而是致力于建設我國地方政府債券市場，增強地方政府融資能力。隨著我國地方政府債券市場的不斷發(fā)展與擴大，風險也隨之而來。因為無論是國內(nèi)外學者的理論研究，還是發(fā)達國家成熟的市場經(jīng)驗，都表明地方政府債券存在一系列的風險。本文在前人研究基礎上，，在我國開啟地方政府債券發(fā)行、并致力于建設地方政府債券市場的大背景下，從理論和實證兩方面做了相關分析，對我國地方政府債券風險的度量和防范機制的構建進行研究，希望能為我國地方政府債券的發(fā)展提供理論支持。 本文首先介紹美、日等發(fā)達國家在地方政府債券發(fā)行和風險防范方面的經(jīng)驗，并進行比較與評價。其次，本文對我國允許地方政府發(fā)行債券所面臨的各類風險進行識別與分析。再次，本文以上海市和遼寧省為例，運用改進后的KMV模型對地方政府發(fā)行債券的信用風險進行度量，得到兩個地區(qū)不同期限地方政府債券的安全發(fā)行規(guī)模與違約概率，并從各個角度進行比較分析。最后，根據(jù)全文研究得出結論，對我國建立地方政府債券風險防范機制提出具有可操作性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Article 28 of China's 1994 Budget Law stipulates: "Local budgets at all levels shall be compiled according to the principle of keeping expenditure within the limits of income and expenditure, and shall not be included in the deficit." Unless otherwise stipulated by the law and the State Council, local governments are not allowed to issue local government bonds. "the 2008 international financial crisis has had a severe impact on China's economy, and the central government has launched a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan. To ease local governments' funding bottlenecks in the stimulus package, the central government began issuing 200 billion yuan of local government bonds on behalf of local governments in 2009. After two or three years of operation, local governments have accumulated some experience in debt management. Since 2011, the local government has started its own bond issue pilot and achieved certain success, which has also been generally recognized by the market. The launch of the pilot work is a major change in the way local bonds are issued. In the future, China's local government bonds will go through the evolution of "agency bond issuance and self-issuance of bonds." From 2009 to 2012, the central government has approved local government bonds for four consecutive years, indicating that the central government has not taken the issue of local government bonds as a temporary measure to save the economic crisis, but has been working to build a local government bond market in our country. Strengthen the ability of local government to raise funds. With the continuous development and expansion of our local government bond market, the risk also follows. Both domestic and foreign scholars' theoretical research and mature market experience in developed countries indicate that local government bonds have a series of risks. On the basis of previous studies, this paper makes a related analysis from the theoretical and empirical aspects under the background of opening the local government bond issuance in China and devoting itself to the construction of the local government bond market. In order to provide theoretical support for the development of local government bonds, this paper studies the risk measurement and prevention mechanism of local government bonds in China. This paper first introduces the experiences of the developed countries, such as the United States and Japan, in the local government bond issuance and risk prevention, and makes a comparison and evaluation. Secondly, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks that local governments are allowed to issue bonds. Thirdly, taking Shanghai and Liaoning Province as examples, this paper uses the improved KMV model to measure the credit risk of local government bonds, and obtains the safe issuance scale and default probability of local government bonds with different maturity in two regions. And carries on the comparative analysis from each angle. Finally, according to the conclusion of the paper, the paper puts forward some feasible policy suggestions to establish the risk prevention mechanism of local government bonds.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李猛,白志勇;發(fā)展我國市政債券市場的必要性及可行性研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2002年17期

2 王光宇;關于我國發(fā)行地方公債問題的探討[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2003年05期

3 王遙;楊輝;;中國地方債務的債券化與發(fā)行市政債券的挑戰(zhàn)[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2007年12期

4 劉少波;黃文青;;我國地方政府隱性債務狀況研究[J];財政研究;2008年09期

5 馮靜;;我國地方政府發(fā)債面臨的問題及對策[J];財政研究;2009年04期

6 劉源;王攀;;全球金融危機下對防范我國財政風險的新思考[J];地方財政研究;2009年04期

7 馮興元;李曉佳;;論城市政府負債與市政債券的規(guī)則秩序框架[J];管理世界;2005年03期

8 賈康,李煒光,劉軍民;關于發(fā)展中國地方政府公債融資的研究[J];經(jīng)濟社會體制比較;2002年05期

9 李冬梅;;基于地方債發(fā)行視角探析地方財政困境問題[J];經(jīng)濟問題;2010年06期

10 肖娜;;中外政府地方債券若干問題比較研究[J];江西社會科學;2009年08期

本文編號：2116847