本文選題：證券投資基金 + 股票投資��； 參考：《天津理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：從我國《證券投資基金管理暫行辦法》的頒布到《證券投資基金法》的正式實(shí)施，從以傳統(tǒng)的封閉式基金為主流到迅速取代其位置的開放式投資基金的出現(xiàn)，在短短的十幾年內(nèi)，證券投資基金無論是投資規(guī)模還是產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)都得到了快速的發(fā)展，已經(jīng)成為證券市場(chǎng)上不可或缺的重要力量。由于我國證券投資基金尚處于探索發(fā)展的起步階段，基金管理人缺乏相應(yīng)的管理知識(shí)和管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)，在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)存在著隨意性、不規(guī)范性和盲目性的投資行為，使得我國一般的投資基金年回報(bào)率普遍低于一年期定期儲(chǔ)蓄的收益率，進(jìn)而影響了中小投資者的收益水平和基金公司的整體業(yè)績。因此基金管理人如何在此狀況下調(diào)整和規(guī)范自己的投資方式，以期給投資者帶來滿意的回報(bào)是目前我國證券投資基金發(fā)展中急需關(guān)注的課題。本論文針對(duì)此問題，，在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外已有的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，從一個(gè)新的角度，即證券投資基金的兩大投資市場(chǎng)——股票市場(chǎng)和債券市場(chǎng)出發(fā)，為基金管理人提出了新的投資決策方法并結(jié)合實(shí)際分析驗(yàn)證了該方法的有效性，該模型的應(yīng)用對(duì)提高基金管理人獲得超額投資收益的能力有很好的指導(dǎo)意義。本論文主要研究內(nèi)容概括如下： 1．綜述國內(nèi)外對(duì)影響證券投資基金業(yè)績的基金經(jīng)理人選股能力和擇時(shí)能力的理論研究、股票和債券投資決策方法研究的現(xiàn)狀，在總結(jié)分析研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上指出研究中存在的不足及本論文所要研究的方向，提出了分別應(yīng)用于股票投資的ANP模型和債券投資的債券收益率曲線模型。 2．以基本面分析為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，分析說明了基本面分析對(duì)證券投資基金的作用，從宏觀環(huán)境、行業(yè)環(huán)境、經(jīng)營管理、財(cái)務(wù)狀況和盈利預(yù)測(cè)五個(gè)方面建立了用于評(píng)價(jià)上市公司投資價(jià)值的ANP模型，在系統(tǒng)研究各指標(biāo)因素之間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系以及通過一致性檢驗(yàn)后，確定了各指標(biāo)的綜合權(quán)重。 3．以上海證券交易所的債券為研究背景，設(shè)計(jì)出了四種基于與到兌付日期時(shí)間長短做自變量的回歸分析模型，通過各種統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)后，初步確定了有效模型。應(yīng)用預(yù)測(cè)方式，對(duì)模型的有效性做了進(jìn)一步分析，最終得出一元三次回歸模型用于構(gòu)建各交易日的債券收益率曲線模型擬合效果最優(yōu)的結(jié)論。 4．針對(duì)股票和債券投資模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。在股票投資操作方面，從中小板股票中選出評(píng)價(jià)樣本，將評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)一線性量化后，結(jié)合ANP模型的指標(biāo)權(quán)重得出最終評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果，根據(jù)結(jié)果進(jìn)行投資選擇；在債券投資操作方面，根據(jù)所提出的債券收益率曲線的兩個(gè)作用，分別依據(jù)債券實(shí)際收益率距債券收益率曲線的位置，以及對(duì)新上市債券開盤價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)，提出購買或規(guī)避債券的投資對(duì)策建議，從而驗(yàn)證了模型的實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:From the promulgation of the interim measures on the Management of Securities Investment funds in China to the formal implementation of the Securities Investment Fund Law, from the traditional closed-end funds as the mainstream to the emergence of open-end investment funds, which quickly replaced their position, In a short period of ten years, both the investment scale and the product structure of the securities investment funds have been developed rapidly, which has become an indispensable and important force in the securities market. Because China's securities investment funds are still in the initial stage of exploration and development, fund managers lack the corresponding management knowledge and management experience, and there are arbitrary, non-normative and blind investment behaviors in investment decision-making. The annual rate of return of general investment funds in China is generally lower than that of one-year periodic savings, which in turn affects the income level of small and medium-sized investors and the overall performance of fund companies. Therefore, how to adjust and standardize the investment mode of the fund manager in this situation in order to bring satisfactory return to the investors is an urgent problem in the development of the securities investment fund in our country. This paper aims at this problem, on the basis of summarizing the existing research results at home and abroad, starting from a new angle, that is, the stock market and the bond market, two major investment markets of the securities investment fund, the stock market and the bond market. A new investment decision method is proposed for fund managers and the effectiveness of this method is verified by practical analysis. The application of this model has a good guiding significance to improve the ability of fund managers to obtain excess investment returns. The main research contents of this paper are summarized as follows: 1. Summarize the theoretical research of stock selection ability and timing ability of fund managers which affect the performance of securities investment funds, the present situation of stock and bond investment decision-making methods. 2. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the present situation of the research, the paper points out the deficiency of the research and the research direction of this paper. The ANP model applied to stock investment and the bond yield curve model of bond investment are put forward. 2. Taking the fundamental analysis as the starting point, the paper analyzes the effect of the fundamental analysis on the securities investment fund, from the macro environment, An ANP model is established to evaluate the investment value of listed companies from five aspects: industry environment, management, financial situation and profit forecast. 3. Taking the bond of Shanghai Stock Exchange as the research background, four regression models based on independent variables to the date and time of payment are designed. The effective model is preliminarily determined. The validity of the model is further analyzed by using the prediction method. Finally, the paper draws the conclusion that the univariate cubic regression model is used to construct the bond yield curve model for each trading day. 4. The empirical research on the stock and bond investment model is carried out. In the aspect of stock investment operation, the evaluation sample is selected from the small and medium-sized board stock, the evaluation index is uniformly linear quantized, the final evaluation result is obtained by combining the index weight of ANP model, and the investment selection is carried out according to the result. In the aspect of bond investment operation, according to the two functions of the bond yield curve, the position of the bond real yield to the bond yield curve and the prediction of the opening price of the newly listed bonds are respectively used. The investment countermeasures of buying or evading bonds are put forward to verify the practicability of the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉霞;證券投資基金績效評(píng)價(jià)方法及實(shí)證分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2004年05期

2 李建軍;虞躍;;基于主成分分析的股票投資策略[J];長春師范學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2009年02期

3 楊湘豫;吳許文;Gautam Mitra;;開放式基金在上升市場(chǎng)與下降市場(chǎng)中選時(shí)與選股能力的實(shí)證研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2007年05期

4 李云飛;謝曉晨;;基于GA-SVM的股票投資價(jià)值評(píng)價(jià)研究[J];燕山大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2009年06期

5 譚政勛,王聰;我國開放式基金業(yè)績來源的實(shí)證研究[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2004年11期

6 傅安里,馬超群,楊曉光;證券投資基金波動(dòng)擇時(shí)能力研究[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2005年01期

7 閆作遠(yuǎn);陳超;;基金經(jīng)理選股及擇時(shí)能力研究——來自中國開放式基金市場(chǎng)的新證據(jù)[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2008年10期

8 周東生;股票投資價(jià)值研究[J];大連理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);1999年03期

9 初鳳榮,張炳發(fā),徐善華;層次分析法在股票投資價(jià)值評(píng)價(jià)中的應(yīng)用[J];系統(tǒng)工程;1998年06期

10 馬超群,文鳳華,蘭秋軍,劉昆,楊曉光;一致性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值及其非參數(shù)方法計(jì)算[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2003年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 王仲仙;弱市期我國證券投資基金投資策略研究[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院;2003年

2 劉華;投資基金股票投資策略[D];中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院研究生院;2003年

3 張大勇;上市公司投資價(jià)值評(píng)價(jià)研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2005年

4 柳雯青;我國證券投資基金的業(yè)績?cè)u(píng)估分析[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2006年

5 盧志勇;我國債券市場(chǎng)投資研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2008年

本文編號(hào)：2094036