本文選題：股票市場估值水平 + 管理層過度自信��； 參考：《中南大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：并購是公司資本配置的重要形式之一,也是實現(xiàn)資本要素流通和產業(yè)結構調整的重要手段。國內外的理論和實證研究表明證券市場環(huán)境和管理者自身的非理性行為會對公司的并購行為產生影響。本文在借鑒國內外學者相關研究成果的基礎上,從探究我國資本市場估值和管理層行為對公司并購決策的影響入手,研究股票市場估值水平、管理層過度自信與并購績效的關系。 本文以滬深兩市2001-2009年間446家上市公司發(fā)生的673起并購事件為研究樣本,使用事件研究法和會計研究法來衡量短期市場反應和長期業(yè)績表現(xiàn),基于影響并購績效的兩大假說即股票市場驅動并購理論和管理者過度自信假說建立本文的研究假設,對股票市場估值、管理層過度自信及其二者交互作用與并購績效的關系進行了實證檢驗,得到的具體結論如下：(1)股票市場估值是企業(yè)進行并購活動的重要驅動因素,與市場低估時期相比,市場高估時期發(fā)生更多的并購活動。股票市場估值水平與并購績效顯著相關,與市場低估時期相比,在市場高估時期發(fā)生的并購能獲得更高的市場公告效應,但是在市場低估時期發(fā)生的并購能獲得更高的長期績效。(2)管理層過度自信與并購績效呈顯著負相關關系。獨立董事比例與并購績效呈正相關關系,獨立董事比例越高,企業(yè)的并購績效越好。(3)從股票市場估值和管理者過度自信的交互影響回歸結果得出,在股票市場高估時期,理性管理者的并購方將獲得更好的市場反應。在市場低估時期,非過度自信的并購方發(fā)生的并購,長期經(jīng)營業(yè)績更好。(4)股權分置改革是否實現(xiàn)對并購質量有積極的影響。內部現(xiàn)金流、凈資產收益率(ROE)與并購績效有顯著的正相關關系。
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the important forms of corporate capital allocation, and it is also an important means to realize the circulation of capital elements and the adjustment of industrial structure. Theoretical and empirical studies at home and abroad show that the securities market environment and the irrational behavior of managers themselves will have an impact on mergers and acquisitions. Based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper studies the valuation level of stock market from the perspective of capital market valuation and the influence of management behavior on corporate M & A decision. The relationship between management overconfidence and M & A performance. Based on 673 M & A events of 446 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2001 to 2009, this paper uses event research method and accounting research method to measure short-term market reaction and long-term performance. Based on the two hypotheses that affect the performance of M & A, the stock market driven M & A theory and the manager overconfidence hypothesis, the research hypotheses of this paper are established to evaluate the stock market. The relationship between management overconfidence and its interaction with M & A performance is empirically tested. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) Stock market valuation is an important driving factor for M & A activities, compared with the period of market undervaluation. There is more M & A activity in the period of market overvaluation. The valuation level of stock market is significantly related to the performance of M & A. Compared with the period of market undervaluation, mergers and acquisitions in the period of market overvaluation can obtain higher market announcement effect. However, M & A in the period of market undervaluation can achieve higher long-term performance. (2) Management overconfidence has a significant negative correlation with M & A performance. The proportion of independent directors is positively correlated with M & A performance, and the higher the proportion of independent directors is, the better the M & A performance of enterprises is. (3) from the regression results of the interaction between stock market valuation and overconfidence of managers, we can conclude that in the period of overvaluation of stock market, Rational managers of mergers and acquisitions will get a better market response. In the period of market undervaluation, the long-term performance of M & A is better than that of non-overconfident M & A. (4) the realization of the split share structure reform has a positive effect on the quality of M & A. There is a significant positive correlation between internal cash flow, ROE and M & A performance.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F832.51;F271

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本文編號：2083454