本文選題：股票市場 + 國民經濟��； 參考：《山西財經大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：21世紀的經濟，既是一種知識為本的經濟，又是一種金融化的經濟。經濟全球化的本質就是資本全球化、金融全球化，而證券市場在金融市場處于舉足輕重的地位，與銀行業(yè)、保險業(yè)共居于金融業(yè)的核心地位。當代的經濟學家一致認為，金融業(yè)的發(fā)展對經濟增長具有巨大的杠桿效應，現代科學技術與金融的有效結合，亦在實體經濟中發(fā)揮了堅不可摧的推動作用，從一定程度可以說，虛擬經濟是實體經濟的催化劑，因此現代金融已經成為當代世界經濟增長的核心動力，同樣促進著經濟的高速發(fā)展，因此，研究證券市場與宏觀經濟之間的關系具有一定的現實意義。 中國股市短短20多年，歷經風雨，變化反復無常，運行規(guī)律讓人琢磨不透，中國股票市場與宏觀經濟的運行是否具有一致性關系到很多人的利益。因而，對中國股市與宏觀經濟關系的研究很有必要。 早在100多年前道氏理論就詳細地說明了股票市場與國民經濟之間的關系，像美國這樣成熟的資本市場中，股票市場高度市場化，股票市場與國民經濟之間有著緊密的聯系。股票市場晴雨表功能是本文寫作的基礎理論，在美國，股價指數作為宏觀經濟的先行指標，，提前反映國民經濟的運行態(tài)勢，可以借鑒美國股市的發(fā)展，來研究中國股市與國民經濟的關系，而在中國，股票市場化程度不夠、行政干預過度、腐敗現象過多等等負面因素很多，導致中國的股票市場對國民經濟反映不及美國股票市場對國民經濟的反映，本文通過VAR（向量自回歸）模型研究了我國九個宏觀經濟指標之間的關系，先進行單位根檢驗，再對平穩(wěn)的變量進行格蘭杰因果檢驗，建立VAR模型，并檢驗模型的穩(wěn)定性，在VAR模型的基礎上用到脈沖響應函數和方差分解，全面闡釋經濟指標之間的相互關系和相互影響，從中找出中國股市存在的問題，并提出了相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The economy of the 21 st century is not only a knowledge-based economy, but also a financialized economy. The essence of economic globalization is capital globalization, financial globalization, and the securities market in the financial market in a pivotal position, with the banking industry, insurance industry in the core position of the financial industry. Contemporary economists agree that the development of the financial industry has a huge leverage effect on economic growth, and that the effective combination of modern science and technology with finance has also played an impenetrable role in the real economy. To a certain extent, it can be said that The virtual economy is the catalyst of the real economy, so modern finance has become the core power of the economic growth in the contemporary world, and it also promotes the rapid development of the economy. It is of practical significance to study the relationship between securities market and macro-economy. The Chinese stock market has been through the wind and rain for more than 20 years and has changed capriciously. It is difficult to figure out whether the operation of Chinese stock market and macro economy is consistent or not, which is related to the interests of many people. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between Chinese stock market and macro-economy. As early as more than 100 years ago, Taoist theory explained in detail the relationship between the stock market and the national economy. In a mature capital market like the United States, the stock market is highly market-oriented, and there is a close connection between the stock market and the national economy. The function of the barometer of the stock market is the basic theory of this paper. In the United States, stock price index, as a leading indicator of the macro economy, reflects the operational situation of the national economy in advance, and can draw lessons from the development of the stock market in the United States. To study the relationship between China's stock market and the national economy. In China, there are many negative factors such as insufficient marketization of the stock market, excessive administrative intervention, excessive corruption and so on. As a result, China's stock market is not as responsive to the national economy as the American stock market is. This paper studies the relationship between the nine macroeconomic indicators in China by using the VAR (Vector autoregressive) model, and carries out the unit root test first. Then Granger causality test is carried out on the stationary variables, VAR model is established, and the stability of the model is tested. On the basis of the VAR model, pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to fully explain the interrelation and mutual influence between economic indicators. Find out the existing problems in Chinese stock market, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F124;F224

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