本文選題：地方政府性債務(wù) + 風(fēng)險現(xiàn)狀��； 參考：《財政部財政科學(xué)研究所》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近期以來,國外投資機構(gòu)和評級機構(gòu)頻繁警示我國政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險,繼惠譽國際將中國長期本幣信用評級從AA-調(diào)降至A+之后,穆迪于2013年4月16日確認(rèn)對中國政府債券的評級為Aa3,同時將評級展望從正面調(diào)整為穩(wěn)定。國際評.級機構(gòu)下調(diào)評級主要基于我國政府性債務(wù)及信貸快速增長問題。2013年4月25日召開的中共中央政治局會議亦關(guān)注了此事,并表示要“抓緊建立規(guī)范的地方政府舉債融資機制”。銀行業(yè)監(jiān)督管理委員會于2013年4月連發(fā)8號文和10號文,都與地方政府性債務(wù)相關(guān)。8號文指向的影子銀行正是很多地方建設(shè)項目所依賴的融資渠道,而10號文更是直接指向地方政府融資平臺。可見,中央政府各部門已經(jīng)高度關(guān)注地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險問題。近年來,地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模不斷擴大,一方面滿足了地方經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對資金的需求,另一方面管理不規(guī)范使得風(fēng)險不斷被放大。本論文在上述背景下,在研究國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,以我國地方政府性債務(wù)為研究對象,通過采用綜合分析、對比分析、邏輯分析的方法,研究我國地方政府性債務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀、存在的風(fēng)險和形成的原因,并借鑒國外地方政府性債務(wù)管理的經(jīng)驗和教訓(xùn),最后得出化解我國政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險的短期任務(wù)和長期目標(biāo)。 本文通過對地方政府性債務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀分析,結(jié)合當(dāng)前我國總體的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展形勢等,得出目前我國地方政府性債務(wù)總體風(fēng)險可控,但局部風(fēng)險凸現(xiàn)。地方政府性債務(wù)規(guī)模膨脹以及管理不規(guī)范、違約風(fēng)險,將帶來財政風(fēng)險、金融風(fēng)險、效率風(fēng)險和社會風(fēng)險。接著本文分析了地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險形成的原因,主要是現(xiàn)行的財稅管理體制不健全和地方政府管理體制不規(guī)范兩個方面。由于我國地方政府性債務(wù)出現(xiàn)時間短、管理經(jīng)驗不足,本文借鑒了發(fā)達國家美國和發(fā)展中國家巴西兩個國家的地方債務(wù)管理經(jīng)驗,并得出對我國地方政府債務(wù)管理的啟示。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文得出了防范和化解我國地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險的短期任務(wù)和長期目標(biāo)。短期內(nèi)主要是建立地方政府性債務(wù)信息披露制度、控制債務(wù)增量逐步消化存量和建立地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警機制。長期內(nèi)主要任務(wù)包括完善法律制度和規(guī)則安排、調(diào)整政府間財政關(guān)系,以及建立全方位的地方政府性債務(wù)監(jiān)督監(jiān)管體系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, foreign investment agencies and rating agencies have frequently warned of government debt risks in China. After Fitch International downgraded China's long-term local currency credit rating from AA- to A, Moody's on April 16, 2013, confirmed its rating on Chinese government bonds as Aa3, while adjusting its outlook from a positive to stable. International assessment The downgrade was largely based on China's government debt and rapid credit growth. The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2013, also focused on the issue, saying it was "urgent to establish a standardized financing mechanism for borrowing by local governments." In April 2013, the Banking Regulatory Commission issued successive languages 8 and 10, both of which relate to local government debt. The shadow bank that many local construction projects rely on is the source of finance for many local construction projects. And the 10 th text is pointed directly to the local government financing platform. Visible, the central government departments have been highly concerned about local government debt risk. In recent years, the scale of local government debt has been expanding. On the one hand, it meets the demand of local economic development for capital; on the other hand, the non-standard management makes the risk magnified. Under the above background, on the basis of studying the present situation at home and abroad, this paper takes the local government debt of our country as the research object, through adopting the comprehensive analysis, the contrast analysis, the logic analysis method, studies the present situation of the local government debt of our country. The existing risks and the causes of formation, and draw lessons from the experience and lessons of foreign local government debt management. Finally, the short-term task and long-term goal to resolve the risk of government debt in China are obtained. Based on the analysis of the present situation of local government debt and the overall economic development situation of our country, this paper draws a conclusion that the overall risk of local government debt is controllable, but the local risk is prominent. The inflated scale of local government debt and the risk of non-standard management and default will bring financial risk, efficiency risk and social risk. Then this paper analyzes the causes of the formation of local government debt risk, mainly in two aspects: the current financial and tax management system is not perfect and the local government management system is not standardized. Because the local government debt of our country appears in short time and the management experience is not enough, this paper draws lessons from the local debt management experience of the developed country, the United States and the developing country Brazil, and draws the enlightenment to the local government debt management of our country. On this basis, the short-term task and long-term goal of preventing and resolving the risk of local government debt in our country are obtained. In the short term, it is mainly to establish the local government debt information disclosure system, to control the debt increment and gradually digest the stock and to establish the local government debt risk warning mechanism. In the long run, the main tasks include perfecting the legal system and rules, adjusting the inter-governmental financial relations, and establishing a comprehensive supervision and supervision system of local government debt.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：財政部財政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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