本文選題：城投債 + 地方政府融資平臺��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：歐債危機的爆發(fā)為我國地方政府性債務問題敲響了警鐘。雖然我國中央政府已經對地方政府融資平臺加以清理整頓，2012年地方城投債的發(fā)行規(guī)模還是達到了新的歷史高度。我國新一屆中央經濟工作會議指出，“要高度重視財政金融領域存在的風險隱患，堅決守住不發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性和區(qū)域性金融風險的底線”。在這樣的背景下研究我國城投債的信用風險和可行規(guī)模具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先對我國城投債市場的現(xiàn)狀和問題加以闡述。目前我國城投債市場存在區(qū)域間發(fā)債規(guī)模不平衡、信用評級虛高、發(fā)行主體資質下移等問題。接著，通過理論和實證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)“土地財政”和“工業(yè)化率”兩個因素與一個地區(qū)城投債的發(fā)行規(guī)模顯著相關：土地財政越高，工業(yè)化率指標越高，該區(qū)域的城投債發(fā)行規(guī)模越大。在此基礎上，進一步研究了影響城投債信用風險的因素，發(fā)現(xiàn)財政收入尤其是土地財政收入是影響城投債信用風險的主要因素。當?shù)貐^(qū)的經濟發(fā)展目標和地方財力形成錯配時，政府信用會開始下降。政府無法憑借信用以發(fā)新債償還舊債的方式進行融資，地方債務風險轉化成區(qū)域性金融風險。之后，本文利用修正的KMV模型測算了2014年長三角地區(qū)的三個省市城投債的債務違約風險并給出了不同擔保比率下各地區(qū)的可行債務規(guī)模。最后，，在比較和借鑒國際發(fā)達債券市場經驗的基礎上提出防范我國城投債信用違約風險的意見和建議。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the European debt crisis has sounded the alarm bell for the local government debt problem in our country. Although the central government has cleaned up the local government financing platform, the issuance scale of local city investment debt has reached a new historical high in 2012. The new Central Economic work Conference pointed out that "we should attach great importance to the risks and hidden dangers in the financial and financial fields, and resolutely guard against the bottom line of avoiding systemic and regional financial risks." Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the credit risk and feasible scale of our country's city investment debt. This article first of all to our country city investment bond market present situation and the question carries on the elaboration. At present, there are some problems in the bond market of our country, such as the imbalance of regional bond issuance scale, the false credit rating and the lower qualification of the issuer. Then, through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that two factors of "land finance" and "industrialization rate" are significantly related to the issuance scale of a region's urban investment debt: the higher the land finance, the higher the industrialization rate index. The bigger the issuance of city debt in the region. On this basis, the paper further studies the factors that affect the credit risk of city investment debt, and finds that the financial revenue, especially the land revenue, is the main factor that affects the credit risk of city investment debt. When the region's economic development goals and local financial mismatch, government credit will begin to decline. The government can't use credit to pay off old and new debt, and local debt risk turns into regional financial risk. Then, using the modified KMV model, this paper calculates the default risk of the debt of three provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2014 and gives the feasible debt scale of each region under different guarantee ratio. Finally, on the basis of comparing and drawing lessons from the experience of international developed bond market, the paper puts forward some suggestions and suggestions on how to prevent the credit default risk of our country's city investment bond.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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相關期刊論文 前3條

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本文編號：1892097