本文選題：股票二級(jí)市場(chǎng) + 投資盈利方法論　； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的日趨成熟,越來(lái)越多的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的參與使得股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)變化的反應(yīng)更具規(guī)律性和趨勢(shì)性,但相對(duì)于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的成熟市場(chǎng),我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)還存在一定的缺陷,在目前我國(guó)新興+轉(zhuǎn)軌的股票市場(chǎng)中,面對(duì)紛繁復(fù)雜的內(nèi)外因變化,如何進(jìn)行信息的有效篩選、更加理性的進(jìn)行投資決策是越來(lái)越多市場(chǎng)參與者所關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。本文以具有一定基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)背景的小型私募和個(gè)人大戶的角度出發(fā),利用自上而下的分析方法,對(duì)影響我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析,通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)的確定和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好的選擇來(lái)指導(dǎo)投資者進(jìn)行投資決策。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括: 1.在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、貨幣銀行學(xué)、財(cái)政學(xué)、投資學(xué)、金融市場(chǎng)學(xué)、投資組合與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)股票漲跌原理進(jìn)行初探,成為建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——收益分析體系的依據(jù)。 2.通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)周期、宏觀政策與A股市場(chǎng)的關(guān)系研究,在歷史數(shù)據(jù)的支撐下,找到了一定的規(guī)律性變化,并分析了這種規(guī)律的成因和傳導(dǎo)作用,以宏觀的視角判斷A股市場(chǎng)的未來(lái)一段時(shí)間的投資方向選擇。 3.將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變化影響下的行業(yè)選擇引入這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——收益體系中來(lái),使投資者在完成宏觀判斷基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)未來(lái)的投資標(biāo)的選擇更具方向性。 4.依靠波浪理論對(duì)市場(chǎng)群體行為的描述,將宏觀判斷、中觀選擇與行情描述相結(jié)合,創(chuàng)新的將傳統(tǒng)的投資組合與波浪理論指導(dǎo)下的行情架構(gòu)相結(jié)合,最終形成具有直接應(yīng)用性、操作性的投資方法研究體系。 本文針對(duì)中國(guó)“新興+轉(zhuǎn)軌”的股票二級(jí)市場(chǎng)特點(diǎn),將西方投資價(jià)值理論與市場(chǎng)金融行為學(xué)理論相結(jié)合,從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)判定角度提供盈利依據(jù)和方法,為中國(guó)A股二級(jí)市場(chǎng)投資盈利方法提供指導(dǎo)體系。
[Abstract]:With the maturity of China's stock market, more and more institutional investors participate in the stock market response to economic changes more regular and trend, but compared with the mature market in developed countries, There are still some defects in the stock market of our country. In the new stock market of our country, how to screen the information effectively in the face of complicated internal and external changes, More rational investment decision-making is the concern of more and more market participants. This paper, from the angle of small private equity and individual large investors with certain basic knowledge background, uses top-down analysis method to analyze the risk factors that affect the stock market in our country. Investors are guided to make investment decisions through the determination of risk level and the choice of risk preference. The main research contents include: 1. On the basis of economics, monetary and banking, finance, investment, financial market, portfolio and risk control, this paper probes into the principle of stock fluctuation and falls, and becomes the basis of establishing the risk- return analysis system. 2. Through the research on the relationship between international market, economic cycle, macro policy and A share market, under the support of historical data, we find some regular changes, and analyze the cause of formation and transmission function of this law. From a macro perspective to judge the A-share market for a period of time to choose the direction of investment. 3. The industry choice under the influence of macroeconomic change is introduced into the risk-income system, which makes investors choose the future investment target more directionally on the basis of completing the macro judgment. 4. Relying on wave theory to describe market group behavior, combining macro judgment, meso selection and market description, innovatively combining the traditional investment portfolio with the market structure under the guidance of wave theory, finally forming a direct application. Operational investment method research system. In view of the characteristics of the secondary stock market in China's "emerging transition", this paper combines the western theory of investment value with the theory of market financial behavior, and provides the profit basis and method from the angle of risk determination. For the Chinese A-share secondary market investment profit methods to provide guidance system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51

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