本文選題：有效市場假說　切入點：消極投資　出處：《天津商業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國股市從1990年12月正式營業(yè)至今，期間經(jīng)歷過漲漲跌跌、起起伏伏,投資者如何在動蕩的股市中獲利，這是廣大投資者最為關(guān)心的問題。本文根據(jù)有效市場假說，結(jié)合當前投資學(xué)教程中有關(guān)消極投資策略的內(nèi)容，由于消極投資策略的模糊性，本文對于選股擇時問題進行深入研究，提出詳盡消極選股選時策略，彌補當前消極投資策略只有選股而沒有選時的缺陷的基礎(chǔ)上，闡述消極選股策略的優(yōu)越性，詳盡介紹消極選時策略的優(yōu)越性，并對消極投資策略在我國具體應(yīng)用提出建議。 本文第一章為緒論。介紹研究背景、提出問題、研究方法、研究內(nèi)容、框架及研究意義等等。第二章為理論綜述。本章分四大部分進行理論綜述分別是有效市場假說、消極投資、投資組合理論以及時機選擇決策與風險。有效市場假說是消極投資策略的理論基礎(chǔ)，對有效市場假說，按照提出、發(fā)展、成熟這一主線對該理論及其意義進行綜述。投資組合理論是本文提出的消極選股策略的理論基礎(chǔ)。時機選擇決策的文獻是消極選時策略的基礎(chǔ)。第三章提出消極投資策略�；谟行袌隼碚�，通過闡述消極投資策略的思想淵源，分析當前積極分析方法（技術(shù)分析、基本面分析）的效果，提出消極投資策略。第四章為消極擇股投資策略的優(yōu)越性。本章將從成本、風險、獲得價值增值和指數(shù)收益、分享經(jīng)濟增長成果四個方面闡述消極選股策略的優(yōu)越性得出買入并持有指數(shù)基金為典型的消極擇股策略。第五章為消極選時投資策略的優(yōu)越性。本章將從消極選時的風險降低作用、獲得時間價值和風險利用三方面闡述消極選時策略的優(yōu)越性得出分批買入為最優(yōu)的消極選時策略，其中以2010年至2012年指數(shù)基金數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，通過實證的分析方法對消極選時策略的風險利用作用加以論述。第六章對消極投資策略在我國具體應(yīng)用提出建議，由于我國股市自身特征及發(fā)展的不完善，，本章對于指數(shù)基金的選取和適用的投資者加以論述。第七章為結(jié)論。 本文的創(chuàng)新點在于：（1）本文指出了目前消極投資策略的不足。消極投資策略是傳統(tǒng)正統(tǒng)的最佳投資方案，但其卻只有選股問題卻回避選時問題，本文指出這一重大缺陷，指出當前投資學(xué)理論的一個修改建議：消極投資策略是消極選股加消極選時。（2）本文提出了具體的消極投資策略即分批買入并持有指數(shù)基金，消除當前《投資學(xué)》中有關(guān)消極投資策略選股選時的模糊性。（3）本文對消極選時的風險利用作用進行實證，證明消極選時策略的優(yōu)越性。
[Abstract]:From December 1990 to now, the stock market of our country has experienced ups and downs, ups and downs, ups and downs, and how investors can profit from the turbulent stock market, which is the most concerned issue for the majority of investors. This paper is based on the efficient Market hypothesis. Combined with the contents of the passive investment strategy in the current course of investment science, because of the ambiguity of the passive investment strategy, this paper makes a thorough study on the timing of stock selection, and puts forward the detailed negative stock timing strategy. On the basis of making up the defect that the negative investment strategy is only selecting stocks but not selecting stock, this paper expounds the superiority of negative stock selection strategy, introduces the superiority of negative stock selection strategy in detail, and puts forward some suggestions for the concrete application of negative investment strategy in our country. The first chapter is the introduction. It introduces the research background, puts forward the question, the research method, the research content, the frame and the research significance and so on. The second chapter is the theory summary. This chapter divides into four parts to carry on the theoretical summary respectively is the efficient market hypothesis. Negative investment, portfolio theory, timing decision and risk. Efficient market hypothesis is the theoretical basis of negative investment strategy. Portfolio theory is the theoretical basis of negative stock selection strategy put forward in this paper, and the literature on timing decision is the basis of negative timing strategy. Investment strategy. Based on efficient market theory, By expounding the ideological origin of negative investment strategy and analyzing the effect of current positive analysis methods (technical analysis, fundamental analysis), the paper puts forward the negative investment strategy. Chapter 4th is the superiority of negative stock selection strategy. Risk, value appreciation and exponential gains, Four aspects of sharing economic growth achievements expound the superiority of negative stock selection strategy. Buy and hold index fund is a typical negative stock selection strategy. Chapter 5th is the superiority of negative stock selection strategy. This chapter will focus on negative selection. The risk reduction effect of. The advantage of negative timing strategy is expounded from three aspects of obtaining time value and risk utilization. The optimal negative timing strategy of buying in batches is obtained, in which the index fund data from 2010 to 2012 are taken as samples. This paper discusses the role of negative timing strategy in risk utilization through empirical analysis. Chapter 6th gives some suggestions on the application of negative investment strategy in China, due to the imperfect characteristics and development of China's stock market. This chapter discusses the selection and application of index fund investors. Chapter 7th is the conclusion. The innovation of this paper lies in: (1) this paper points out the shortcomings of the current passive investment strategy. Passive investment strategy is the traditional orthodox best investment plan, but it only has the stock selection problem but avoids the timing problem. This paper points out this major defect. It is pointed out that a modified suggestion of the current investment theory is that the passive investment strategy is negative stock selection plus negative selection. 2) this paper proposes a specific passive investment strategy, that is, buying and holding index funds in batches. To eliminate the fuzziness of stock selection of passive investment strategy in present "investment science", this paper makes an empirical study on the risk utilization role of negative selection, and proves the superiority of negative timing strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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