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基于盈利預(yù)測的機構(gòu)投資者非理性自利行為研究

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞: 機構(gòu)投資者 盈利預(yù)測 非理性自利行為 出處:《湖南大學(xué)》2012年博士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:客觀可靠的信息是資本市場企業(yè)價值評判的基礎(chǔ),是資本市場價格機制正常運轉(zhuǎn)和實現(xiàn)有效資源配置的前提。而盈利預(yù)測信息是關(guān)于企業(yè)價值最核心的信息,因此是資本市場最重要的信息內(nèi)容之一,有助于指引普通投資者進(jìn)行投資,進(jìn)而引導(dǎo)市場市場實現(xiàn)資源優(yōu)化配置。機構(gòu)投資者作為維護(hù)市場運行的金融中介,具有規(guī)模、信息和知識的優(yōu)勢,是資本市場天然的信息“權(quán)威”,是市場上普通投資者最重要的信息源。理性的機構(gòu)投資者發(fā)布客觀可靠的盈利預(yù)測,指引普通投資者進(jìn)行投資,可以實現(xiàn)市場資源配置的優(yōu)化,維護(hù)資本市場的秩序。但如果機構(gòu)投資者表現(xiàn)出非理性自利行為,發(fā)布錯誤的或誤導(dǎo)性的盈利預(yù)測,則會影響普通投資者的投資決策,誤導(dǎo)資本市場的資源流向,從而嚴(yán)重地?fù)p害資本市場的運行秩序。 以往的學(xué)者對于機構(gòu)投資者盈利預(yù)測的研究大多遵循技術(shù)范式的研究思路,考察影響機構(gòu)投資者盈利預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性的技術(shù)因素,而缺乏對其內(nèi)在利益關(guān)系的探究。國外部分學(xué)者檢驗了承銷業(yè)務(wù)利益對機構(gòu)投資者盈利預(yù)測的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)為了承銷業(yè)務(wù)利益,機構(gòu)投資者會采取非理性的自利行為,發(fā)布樂觀的盈利預(yù)測以追逐承銷業(yè)務(wù)利益。這說明當(dāng)存在自身利益與市場利益的沖突時,非理性自利的機構(gòu)投資者可能會以犧牲盈利預(yù)測的客觀性為代價而換取自身的現(xiàn)實利益。 “經(jīng)濟(jì)人”的理性自利是以集體理性為目標(biāo)的。經(jīng)濟(jì)個體在追求自身利益時,能實現(xiàn)集體的利益和自身的長期利益,這樣才能保證自身利益的安全性和可持續(xù)性。因此,個體理性與集體理性是否一致是自利的理性判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。但現(xiàn)實中,個體理性與集體理性之間往往存在矛盾,過度的追求個體利益會導(dǎo)致個體理性對集體理性的損害。非理性自利實質(zhì)為個體理性對集體理性的背離,其內(nèi)涵是犧牲集體利益以謀求自身的利益,放棄長期利益來換取短期利益。非理性自利行為發(fā)生的條件在于市場倫理和聲譽機制的缺失、信息的不對稱、市場地位的失衡、市場監(jiān)管的失效。我國的資本市場逐利氛圍濃厚、機構(gòu)投資者盈利壓力巨大,這樣會誘發(fā)機構(gòu)投資者的非理性自利動機。而由于我國機構(gòu)投資者在信息知識上的主導(dǎo)地位、市場聲譽機制的不健全、市場監(jiān)管和內(nèi)部控制低效等方面的原因,機構(gòu)投資者很可能會在利益誘導(dǎo)下產(chǎn)生非理性自利行為。 由于機構(gòu)投資者主要利益在于承銷、自營和經(jīng)紀(jì)三類業(yè)務(wù),因此本文重點考察了在這三類業(yè)務(wù)利益的誘導(dǎo)下,機構(gòu)投資者在盈利預(yù)測中所表現(xiàn)出的各種非理性自利行為。在承銷業(yè)務(wù)方面,通過選取我國資本市場相關(guān)樣本數(shù)據(jù)說進(jìn)行檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國機構(gòu)投資者會因為追逐承銷業(yè)務(wù)利益而在盈利預(yù)測中表現(xiàn)出樂觀傾向,以提升擬上市公司的市場認(rèn)可度,增加承銷利益;同時維護(hù)與上市公司管理層的良好關(guān)系,爭取未來的承銷業(yè)務(wù)機會;而這種樂觀傾向會影響其盈利預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性,并且會導(dǎo)致短期市場超額報酬上升,但中期卻下降,因而會損害普通投資者的利益,影響市場資源配置。在自營業(yè)務(wù)方面,機構(gòu)投資者為了保護(hù)自營業(yè)務(wù)利益,可能會有選擇性地隱瞞自己的真實盈利預(yù)測,而發(fā)布非客觀真實的盈利預(yù)測報告;通過相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)機構(gòu)投資者的盈利預(yù)測調(diào)整方向與其自營業(yè)務(wù)的投資方向并不相關(guān),表明機構(gòu)投資者沒有采納其他機構(gòu)投資者和自己的盈利預(yù)測報告進(jìn)行投資,也即機構(gòu)投資者發(fā)布的盈利預(yù)測選擇性地隱瞞了其真實意圖。在經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)方面,通過經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)利益和盈利預(yù)測關(guān)系的考察,發(fā)現(xiàn)機構(gòu)投資者存在發(fā)布顯著偏離市場前期盈利預(yù)測的傾向,而且這種偏離激發(fā)了市場交易量,最終會引致其經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)利益的增加。根據(jù)機構(gòu)投資者非理性自利行為的影響因素和條件,本文最后提出從個體理性走向集體理性的實現(xiàn)路徑,并據(jù)此從我國市場倫理環(huán)境的改善、市場監(jiān)管與機構(gòu)投資者內(nèi)部控制的提升、市場聲譽機制的建立等多個方面提出了對策建議。 本文對自利的理性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和非理性自利的內(nèi)涵及產(chǎn)生條件進(jìn)行了分析界定,并以此為基礎(chǔ)對機構(gòu)投資者盈利預(yù)測中的非理性自利行為機理和表現(xiàn)形式進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)性研究,既是對本領(lǐng)域文獻(xiàn)的重要補充,也是對經(jīng)濟(jì)組織在利益沖突環(huán)境下的行為分析范式的貢獻(xiàn)。對機構(gòu)投資者在三類業(yè)務(wù)利益驅(qū)動下的盈利預(yù)測非理性自利行為進(jìn)行了實證檢驗,這些研究結(jié)論對普通投資者理解機構(gòu)投資者的盈利預(yù)測行為,對監(jiān)管部門規(guī)范和引導(dǎo)機構(gòu)投資者的發(fā)展都具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:Objective and reliable information is the foundation of capital market of the enterprise value evaluation, capital market price mechanism for normal operation and premise of realizing effective allocation of resources. And the profit forecast information about the core value of the enterprise information, so the capital market is the most important information content, help ordinary investors, and guide the market to optimize the allocation of resources. Institutional investors as the maintenance of financial intermediary, the operation of the market scale, information and knowledge advantage, is the capital market natural information "authority", is the ordinary investors on the market is the most important source of information. Rational institutional investors issued objective and reliable earnings forecast, direct the general investors. Can optimize the allocation of market resources, maintaining the order of capital market. But if institutional investors exhibit non rational self-interest,. The misleading or misleading earnings forecasts will affect the investment decisions of ordinary investors, mislead the capital market, and seriously damage the operation order of capital market.
Research of previous scholars for the study of institutional investors earnings forecast mostly follow the technological paradigm, the influence of institutional investors earnings forecast accuracy of technical factors, and the lack of research on its internal relations. Some foreign scholars examined the influence of institutional investors on underwriting business interest earnings forecasts, in order to find the underwriting business interests, institutional investors the non rational self-interest behavior, optimistic earnings forecasts issued to chase the underwriting business interest. This shows that when the conflict has its own interests and the interests of the market when the non rational self benefit institutional investors may be in exchange for real's own interests at the expense of the objectivity of earnings forecasts.
"Rational self-interest of economic man is the collective rationality as the goal. The individual economy in the pursuit of their own interests, to achieve the long-term interests of the collective interests and their own, so as to ensure the safety and sustainability of their own interests. Therefore, individual and collective rationality is a rational judgment standard of self-interest. But in reality, there are contradictions between individual and collective rationality, individual interests will lead to excessive pursuit of individual rationality of collective rationality damage. Non rational self-interest is individual rationality to deviate from the collective rationality, its connotation is sacrifice collective interests to seek their own interests, give up long-term interests for short-term interests of non. Rational self-interest behavior is the lack of market ethics and reputation mechanism, information asymmetry, unbalance of market position, the failure of market supervision. The capital market of our country by the atmosphere Wei strong, institutional investors profit pressure, which can induce institutional investors non rational self-interest. But due to the dominance of Chinese institutional investors in the information knowledge, the market reputation mechanism is not perfect, the market supervision and internal control efficiency etc., institutional investors may have a non rational self-interest in the interests of under the induction.
As institutional investors, the main interest is in underwriting, brokerage and proprietary business three categories, this paper focuses on the induction of these three types of business interests, various institutional investors represented in earnings forecast in the non rational self-interest behavior. In the underwriting business, through the selection of China's capital market related sample data to test said and found that China's institutional investors will chase because underwriting business interest in earnings forecast showed optimism, to promote listed companies to increase the degree of market acceptance, underwriting profit; and maintain good relationship with the management of listed companies, for future underwriting business opportunities; and this optimism will affect the accuracy of their earnings forecasts, and will lead to short-term market excess returns rise, but the medium-term declined, which will damage the interests of ordinary investors, affect the market in resource allocation. Business, institutional investors in order to protect the proprietary business interests would selectively hide their true earnings forecasts, published non objective truth profit forecast report; through data analysis, found that the investment direction to adjust the direction of its proprietary business institutional investors earnings forecasts are not related, shows that institutional investors did not adopt other institutional investors and their earnings forecasts for investment, namely, institutional investors issued a profit forecast selectively to conceal the true intentions. In the brokerage business, through the investigation of brokerage business interests and profit forecast relationship, found that institutional investors have significant tendency to deviate from the market early released earnings forecasts, and the deviation to stimulate the market trading volume finally, increase will lead to its brokerage business interests. According to institutional investors non rational self interest The influence factors and conditions, this paper finally puts forward the realization path from individual rationality to collective rationality, and accordingly from China's market ethics environment, improve the internal control of market supervision and institutional investors, many aspects of the market reputation mechanism establishment put forward suggestions.
The connotation of rational criterion of self-interest and non rational self-interest and conditions are analyzed and defined, based on the systematic research on the mechanism of non rational self-interest behavior and forms of institutional investors in the earnings forecast, is an important supplement to the field of literature, but also contribute to the behavior analysis paradigm of economic organization in the conflict environment. To carry on the empirical test of institutional investors in the three types of business profit driven interests under the prediction of non rational self-interest behavior, these results for ordinary investors understand the institutional investors profit forecast behavior, has important theoretical and practical significance to the regulatory authorities to regulate and guide the development of institutional investors.

【學(xué)位授予單位】:湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號】:F832.51;F224

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