本文關(guān)鍵詞：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、貨幣政策與我國(guó)金融狀況指數(shù)　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 資產(chǎn)價(jià)格 貨幣政策目標(biāo) 通貨膨脹機(jī)理 金融狀況指數(shù)

【摘要】：隨著資本市場(chǎng)特別是股市和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)金融活動(dòng)中的地位不斷增強(qiáng),資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)貨幣政策目標(biāo)及金融穩(wěn)定的影響也顯著增加,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貨幣政策及通貨膨脹的內(nèi)在關(guān)系也越來(lái)越受人們的關(guān)注。貨幣政策是否需要考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)格,也是理論界和中央銀行曾經(jīng)熱議的話題,2007年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái),此問(wèn)題再度受到關(guān)注。特別是近幾年房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格快速上升,對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格存在泡沫的說(shuō)法不斷升溫,因此探索資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與貨幣政策、膨脹預(yù)期之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,改進(jìn)和完善貨幣政策體系是目前中央銀行的現(xiàn)實(shí)選擇,對(duì)于維護(hù)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展也具有重大意義。 本文通過(guò)理論與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,對(duì)我國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)、貨幣政策以及資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與貨幣政策之間的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了理論分析和探討,并針對(duì)當(dāng)前CPI作為我國(guó)通貨膨脹參考指標(biāo)的不足,提出了構(gòu)建我國(guó)金融狀況指數(shù)的構(gòu)想。沿著這樣的邏輯,除了第一章導(dǎo)論和最后一章結(jié)論外,本文的基本框架為：第二章探討了現(xiàn)有的關(guān)于資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貨幣政策框架的爭(zhēng)論,首先分析了現(xiàn)有的貨幣政策框架的特點(diǎn),論述了針對(duì)貨幣政策是否應(yīng)該考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)格所產(chǎn)生的爭(zhēng)論,以及在這些爭(zhēng)論下資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貨幣政策的關(guān)系和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)。第三章從通貨膨脹機(jī)理的變化角度闡述了資產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貨幣政策的關(guān)系。從目前通貨膨脹只關(guān)注CPI指數(shù)所帶來(lái)的一系列問(wèn)題出發(fā),討論了中央銀行在資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹時(shí)所面臨的選擇,進(jìn)而探討了將資產(chǎn)價(jià)格納入通貨膨脹的嘗試。第四章在上文的基礎(chǔ)上,提出構(gòu)建中國(guó)金融狀況指數(shù)的構(gòu)想,包括討論比較多的貨幣狀況指數(shù)和金融狀況指數(shù),并結(jié)合我國(guó)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù),選取有代表性的變量構(gòu)造更廣泛意義的金融狀況指數(shù),并進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)與分析。第五章通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果討論了此指數(shù)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融及通貨膨脹的影響。 在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用VAR模型分析法,通過(guò)各變量對(duì)CPI的平均脈沖響進(jìn)行分析,得出以下結(jié)論：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響中央銀行貨幣政策目標(biāo),CPI已不足以作為衡量通貨膨脹的有效指標(biāo),而實(shí)證結(jié)果也證實(shí)了包含資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的金融狀況指數(shù)FCI是CPI變動(dòng)的格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),對(duì)未來(lái)通貨膨脹的變化情況有很好的預(yù)測(cè)能力,比CPI能夠更加全面的衡量通貨膨脹,可以作為中央銀行貨幣政策的參考指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:With the increasing position of capital market, especially stock market and real estate market in economic and financial activities, the impact of asset price fluctuation on monetary policy objectives and financial stability has also increased significantly. The intrinsic relationship between asset price and monetary policy and inflation has been paid more and more attention. Whether monetary policy should consider asset price is also a hot topic in theory and central bank. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2007, this problem has been paid attention again, especially the rapid rise of real estate prices in recent years, and the rising of the claims that asset prices exist bubbles. Therefore, it is a realistic choice for the central bank to explore the internal relationship between asset price fluctuation and monetary policy and inflation expectation, and to improve and perfect the monetary policy system. It is also of great significance to maintain the stable development of economy and finance. Through the combination of theory and empirical analysis, this paper makes a theoretical analysis and discussion on the fluctuation of asset price, monetary policy and the correlation between asset price fluctuation and monetary policy in China. Aiming at the deficiency of CPI as a reference index of inflation in our country, this paper puts forward the conception of constructing the index of financial condition of our country. Along this logic, except the introduction of the first chapter and the conclusion of the last chapter. The basic framework of this paper is as follows: the second chapter discusses the existing debate on asset prices and monetary policy framework, and analyzes the characteristics of the existing monetary policy framework. This paper discusses the debate about whether monetary policy should consider asset price. Under these arguments, the relationship between asset price and monetary policy and the transmission of monetary policy of asset price are discussed. Chapter three expounds the relationship between asset price and monetary policy from the angle of inflation mechanism. Inflation focuses only on the series of problems posed by the CPI index. This paper discusses the choice that the central bank faces when the asset price expands, and then discusses the attempt to bring the asset price into the inflation. Chapter 4th, on the basis of the above, puts forward the idea of constructing China's financial condition index. Including the discussion of more monetary index and financial condition index, and combined with the actual data in China, select representative variables to construct a broader meaning of the financial situation index. Chapter 5th discusses the impact of this index on economy, finance and inflation. On the basis of the above research, using VAR model analysis method, through the analysis of the average impulse response of CPI, the following conclusions are drawn: the fluctuation of asset prices affects the monetary policy objectives of the central bank. CPI is no longer an effective measure of inflation, and the empirical results also confirm that the financial condition index (FCI), which includes asset prices, is the Granger causality test of CPI changes. It has a good ability to predict the change of inflation in the future and can measure inflation more comprehensively than CPI. It can be used as a reference index of monetary policy of central bank.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.5;F224

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