本文關鍵詞：基于BIE模型的股票投資策略研究　出處：《北京郵電大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 經濟周期 行業(yè)周期 股票投資

【摘要】：經過二十余年的發(fā)展,中國的股票資本市場取得了偉大成就。截止2012年3月,A股賬戶數達到1.6億戶,總市值達到23萬億元,上市公司達到2450家。中國的股市擴容速度可謂是領先全球。然而,經過股市血雨腥風的洗禮,中國的股民卻損失慘重。2011年12月13日,歷史性一幕在A股市場上演,上證指數跌至2245點,也就是十年前的2001年6月14日的點位。十年一輪回,A股“奇跡般”回到起點。據新浪網2011年12月30日的調查顯示,40%的股民2011年的股票投資虧損在50%以上。關于普通股民投資虧損的原因分析很多,包括資本市場的融資定位問題、股票發(fā)行制度問題、上市公司法人治理結構問題、資本市場內幕交易問題等。但是,這些問題都是有賴于特權階層利益的博弈、體制的變革等,而這些因素是我們普通股民無法掌控的。對于我們來說,唯一要做的是提升自己認識,把握事物本質,摸清發(fā)展規(guī)律,盡量避免在將來的資本市場中再次遭受損失�；谶@個目標,本人將自身的實際操作經驗和國內外已經積累的經驗相結合,提出基于BIE模型的股票投資策略。 BIE模型的核心思想就是遵循經濟規(guī)律,抓住經濟周期(Business cycle)、行業(yè)周期(Industry cycle)及上市公司生命周期(Enterprise life cycle)三者的上升階段,順勢而為。 首先,對于經濟周期來說,有四個發(fā)展階段,分別是復蘇期、擴張期、滯漲期和衰退期。根據美林投資時鐘理論,股票投資的最佳時期是復蘇期。那么,我們就需要知道如何識別復蘇期的起點和終點,需明確判斷的指標及其特征； 其次,對于行業(yè)生命周期來說,同樣存在著創(chuàng)業(yè)期、成長期、成熟期和衰退期四個階段,并且不同的行業(yè),所處的階段存在著差異性。而對于我們普通投資者來說,無疑創(chuàng)業(yè)期和成長期的行業(yè)是我們投資的首選。同樣,我們需要進行成長性行業(yè)判斷的指標； 最后,對于企業(yè)生命周期來說(也就是我們的投資對象：上市公司),通常也劃分為發(fā)展期、成長期、成熟期和衰退期。同樣,我們的目標投資對象必須處在發(fā)展期或是成長期,并且將上市公司的分析角度從四個方面展開,分別是競爭地位、發(fā)展空間、盈利能力和投資收益,每個方面提煉出兩個關鍵指標,來進行上市公司的甄別。
[Abstract]:After twenty years of development, Chinese stock capital market has made great achievements. As of March 2012, A shares account number reached 160 million, the total market value reached 23 trillion yuan, listed companies reached 2450. Chinese the stock market expansion speed is a leading global stock market. However, after a bloody baptism, Chinese investors have lost.2011 in December 13th, the historic scene in the A-share market staged A, the Shanghai index fell 2245 points, or ten years ago in June 14, 2001. A ten year cycle, A shares "miracle" back to the starting point. According to the survey of sina.com.cn in December 30, 2011, 40% of the investors in 2011 stock investment losses in more than 50%. The reason for ordinary investors investment losses analysis of many problems, including the location of financing of capital market, the stock issuance system, the corporate governance structure of listed companies, capital market insider trading The problem. However, these problems are the game depends on the privileged interests, system changes, and these factors are our ordinary investors cannot control. For us, the only thing to do is to enhance their understanding, grasp the essence of things, find out the law of development, as far as possible to avoid losses again in the future capital in the market. Based on this, I will own practical experience at home and abroad have accumulated experience combined, put forward the stock investment strategy based on the BIE model.
The core idea of BIE model is to follow the economic law, seize the economic cycle (Business cycle) (Industry cycle), the industry cycle and life cycle of listed companies (Enterprise life cycle) of the three stage, the flow.
First of all, the economic cycle, there are four stages of development, which is the recovery period, the expansion period, stagnation and decline. According to the Merrill Lynch Investment clock theory, the best period of stock investment recovery period. So, we need to know how to identify the starting point and end point of the recovery period, the index and its characteristics of clear judge;
Secondly, for the industry life cycle, there is also a start-up period, growth period, mature period and decline period of four stages, and different industries, the stage difference. But for us ordinary investors, undoubtedly starting and growth period of the industry is our investment choice. Also, we the need for the growth of the industry index judgment;
Finally, for the enterprise life cycle (i.e. our investments: listed companies), usually divided into growth period, development period, mature period and decline period. Similarly, we must target investment in the development stage or growth stage, and the analysis of listed companies from four aspects. They are competition status, development space, profitability and investment income, every aspect of the extracted two key indicators, the screening of listed companies.

【學位授予單位】：北京郵電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前8條

1 孫建強,許秀梅,高潔;企業(yè)生命周期的界定及其階段分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2003年18期

2 宋清;;簡評經濟周期理論演進史[J];山西財政稅務�？茖W校學報;2009年05期

3 寒笙;;w倌曛蟮氖瀾鏪J];觀察與思考;2009年03期

4 李彬;;企業(yè)生命周期各階段特點研究[J];經濟師;2010年02期

5 張強;姚大悅;;中國經濟周期運行特點分析[J];經濟研究導刊;2010年19期

6 李超;;新材料產業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢[J];技術與市場;2008年06期

7 姜繼嬌,楊乃定,賈曉霞;基于行為金融的機構投資者資產配置模式[J];生產力研究;2004年08期

8 向蓉美;宏觀經濟統計分析與國民經濟核算體系關系辨析——再學習SNA有感[J];統計與信息論壇;2004年01期

相關博士學位論文 前2條

1 鄧q，

本文編號：1368056