本文選題：德爾菲調(diào)查 + 技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《中國(guó)科技論壇》2007年05期

【摘要】：本文利用我國(guó)信息、生物、新材料等9個(gè)領(lǐng)域的技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)調(diào)查結(jié)果,對(duì)咨詢專家人數(shù)、權(quán)重和評(píng)價(jià)意見的正態(tài)性等問題進(jìn)行了討論。結(jié)果表明:熟悉專家的意見具有一定的代表性,一般來講,在技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)中咨詢21～25位熟悉專家比較合適;如果咨詢專家的人數(shù)達(dá)到100人左右,根據(jù)專家熟悉程度進(jìn)行加權(quán)和等權(quán)所計(jì)算的技術(shù)重要性指數(shù)存在線性關(guān)系,其相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.9535,即加權(quán)與等權(quán)的計(jì)算結(jié)果差異不大。此外,所有領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业脑u(píng)價(jià)意見均服從正態(tài)分布,說明專家的評(píng)價(jià)意見比較客觀。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the number of consultants, weights and normality of evaluation opinions are discussed by using the results of technical prediction in 9 fields of information, biology and new materials in China. The results show that the opinions of familiar experts are representative, generally speaking, it is more appropriate to consult 21 or 25 familiar experts in technical forecasting; if the number of consultants is about 100, There is a linear relationship between the technical importance index calculated by weighted weight and equal weight according to the degree of familiarity of experts, and the correlation coefficient is 0.9535, that is to say, there is little difference between the calculation results of weighted and equal weight. In addition, the evaluation opinions of experts in all fields are subject to normal distribution, indicating that the evaluation opinions of experts are more objective.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)促進(jìn)發(fā)展研究中心
【分類號(hào)】：C932

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本文編號(hào)：1910896