【摘要】：物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)較為復(fù)雜,當(dāng)前預(yù)測方法只采用一種方法對(duì)物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)中多地區(qū)配送需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測,無法保證預(yù)測精度。提出一種新的需求預(yù)測方法,通過兩個(gè)或兩個(gè)以上不一樣的預(yù)測方法,對(duì)物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)中多地區(qū)配送需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測,構(gòu)建物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)中多地區(qū)配送需求組合預(yù)測模型,對(duì)不同方法進(jìn)行加權(quán)組合,通過熵值法對(duì)組合預(yù)測模型的組合權(quán)重進(jìn)行計(jì)算,充分利用不同預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)點(diǎn),獲取較優(yōu)的預(yù)測結(jié)果。通過殘差檢驗(yàn)和后驗(yàn)差檢驗(yàn),對(duì)組合預(yù)測模型的配送需求預(yù)測能力進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,所提方法具有很高的預(yù)測精度。
[Abstract]:The logistics network is more complex. The current forecasting method only uses one method to predict the multi-regional distribution demand in the logistics network, which can not guarantee the prediction accuracy. In this paper, a new demand forecasting method is proposed. Through two or more different forecasting methods, the multi-regional distribution demand in the logistics network is forecasted, and the multi-regional distribution demand combination forecasting model in the logistics network is constructed. The weighted combination of different methods is carried out, and the combined weight of the combined prediction model is calculated by entropy method, and the better prediction results are obtained by making full use of the advantages of different prediction methods. The distribution demand forecasting ability of the combined forecasting model is evaluated by residual test and posterior error test. The experimental results show that the proposed method has high prediction accuracy.
【作者單位】： 云南師范大學(xué)文理學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F259.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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