本文選題：流感 + 傳染病動(dòng)力學(xué)��； 參考：《南京理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,外出人口流動(dòng)頻繁、人口老齡化、高危人群比例不斷增加,流感的危害及其監(jiān)測(cè)和防治的重要性逐步引起了各級(jí)政府的高度重視。在流感擴(kuò)散期間,市場(chǎng)上普通的藥品對(duì)流感的治療效果并不明顯,患者須到醫(yī)院接受針對(duì)性抗病病毒藥品治療,這將會(huì)給醫(yī)院及配送中心的藥品庫(kù)存管理帶來(lái)巨大挑戰(zhàn)。一方面如果醫(yī)院相關(guān)藥品庫(kù)存過(guò)多,將會(huì)占用大量流動(dòng)資金,而且存在大量的藥品過(guò)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn);另一方面,如果庫(kù)存過(guò)低,那么可能造成患者不能及時(shí)得到治療,造成醫(yī)療服務(wù)水平的降低,繼而引發(fā)更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。因此,面對(duì)每年的流感肆虐,一個(gè)有針對(duì)性且緊致化的藥品訂購(gòu)與配送規(guī)劃就顯得很重要�；诖�,本文以流感擴(kuò)散環(huán)境下的醫(yī)療物資訂購(gòu)與配送規(guī)劃為研究?jī)?nèi)容,首先建立人口流動(dòng)情形下的流感擴(kuò)散動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,找出其擴(kuò)散的關(guān)鍵控制參數(shù),繼而構(gòu)建出藥品時(shí)變需求預(yù)測(cè)模型;其次,從需求驅(qū)動(dòng)和容量約束的角度,研究流感患者的整體指派優(yōu)化行為,在考慮藥品生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)能力、以及藥品儲(chǔ)備分銷中心的訂購(gòu)決策行為等因素基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建藥品采購(gòu)與供應(yīng)協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化模型;第三,將上述問題中的"流感患者的整體指派優(yōu)化行為"這一限制條件放松,考慮患者隨機(jī)分配到各醫(yī)院的情形下,應(yīng)如何訂購(gòu)與配送醫(yī)療物資,使得整體運(yùn)營(yíng)成本最小;在上述工作的基礎(chǔ)上,本文進(jìn)一步對(duì)模型進(jìn)行拓展,將固定量的訂購(gòu)決策改變?yōu)閮?yōu)化模型中的一個(gè)決策變量,探究在該環(huán)境下的藥品采購(gòu)與供應(yīng)協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化模型,以及最優(yōu)訂購(gòu)量的變化情況。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)流感疫情的疾病傳播率與恢復(fù)率對(duì)患者人數(shù)的變化影響較大,繼而對(duì)醫(yī)療物資訂購(gòu)與配送的總物流成本影響較大,決策者應(yīng)該對(duì)該參數(shù)給予重點(diǎn)關(guān)注;(2)患者整體指派的情形在各種條件下均比隨機(jī)指派情形要優(yōu),但這并不能證明其實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值最好,原因在于整體指派情形前提條件比較理想化,相比而言,隨機(jī)指派情形下的醫(yī)療物資訂購(gòu)與配送模式更適合流感這類常見的非應(yīng)急疫情應(yīng)對(duì)問題,患者對(duì)醫(yī)院的隨機(jī)選擇也更符合現(xiàn)實(shí)的情況;(3)當(dāng)固定訂購(gòu)量改為決策變量時(shí),最優(yōu)訂購(gòu)量會(huì)隨著藥品需求變化而變化,與固定的訂購(gòu)量相比,非固定的訂購(gòu)決策更能滿足實(shí)際的需求,并且降低整體運(yùn)營(yíng)成本,因此在實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)過(guò)程中,應(yīng)根據(jù)流感疫情的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),開展小批量多批次的非固定訂貨決策,更有利于整體物流運(yùn)營(yíng)成本的控制。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, frequent migration of the population, aging population, increasing proportion of high-risk population, the harm of influenza and the importance of monitoring and prevention have gradually attracted the attention of governments at all levels. During the period of influenza spread, the effect of common drugs on the treatment of influenza is not obvious, patients have to go to hospital to receive targeted anti-virus drugs, which will bring great challenges to the drug inventory management in hospitals and distribution centers. On the one hand, if the hospital has too many drugs in stock, it will occupy a large amount of liquid capital, and there will be a large number of risks of drug expiration; on the other hand, if the stock is too low, then patients may not be able to get treatment in time. The level of medical services reduced, and then led to greater economic losses. Therefore, in the face of the annual influenza epidemic, a targeted and tight drug ordering and distribution planning is very important. Based on this, this paper takes the ordering and distribution planning of medical materials in the environment of influenza diffusion as the research content. Firstly, the dynamic model of influenza diffusion under the condition of population flow is established, and the key control parameters of the influenza diffusion are found out. Secondly, from the point of view of demand-driven and capacity constraints, we study the overall assignment optimization behavior of influenza patients, and consider the production capacity of drug manufacturers. On the basis of the ordering decision behavior of drug reserve distribution center, the optimization model of drug purchase and supply coordination is constructed. Thirdly, the restriction of "the overall assignment optimization behavior of influenza patients" mentioned above is relaxed. How to order and distribute medical materials to make the overall operating cost minimum when patients are randomly assigned to each hospital. On the basis of the above work, this paper further expands the model. The order decision of fixed quantity is changed into a decision variable in the optimization model to explore the optimal model of drug purchase and supply under this environment and the change of the optimal order quantity. Through the study, we found that the disease transmission rate and recovery rate of the influenza epidemic situation have a great influence on the number of patients, and then on the total logistics cost of medical materials ordering and distribution. Decision makers should focus on this parameter.) the overall assignment of patients is superior to that of random assignment under various conditions, but it does not prove to be of the best practical value. The reason is that the premise of the overall assignment situation is more idealized. In contrast, the medical materials ordering and distribution model under the random assignment situation is more suitable for the common non-emergency epidemic response problems such as influenza. Patients' random selection of hospitals is also more in line with the actual situation. When the fixed order quantity is changed to a decision variable, the optimal order quantity will change with the change of drug demand, compared with the fixed order quantity. The non-fixed ordering decision can meet the actual demand better and reduce the overall operating cost. Therefore, in the actual operation process, according to the development trend of influenza epidemic situation, we should carry out small batch and multi-batch non-fixed ordering decision. More conducive to the overall logistics operation cost control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R95;F274

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 周穎;羅利;吳曉東;;庫(kù)存空間約束下多藥品最優(yōu)訂購(gòu)策略研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2015年12期

2 陳方超;管俊陽(yáng);王道重;劉旭寧;;突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急救援物資需求預(yù)測(cè)的方法研究[J];交通信息與安全;2014年04期

3 張軍;李占風(fēng);;大規(guī)模地震災(zāi)害緊急救援藥品需求的預(yù)測(cè)[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2014年13期

4 宮劍;李潔玲;;基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的藥品需求組合預(yù)測(cè)研究與應(yīng)用[J];中國(guó)管理信息化;2014年08期

5 仝鵬;劉子先;劉俊蘭;李婭訪;;基于作業(yè)成本法的醫(yī)療物資TCO優(yōu)化模型[J];工業(yè)工程與管理;2012年02期

6 汪傳旭;蔣良奎;;基于應(yīng)急救援物資單向轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)的受災(zāi)點(diǎn)庫(kù)存策略研究[J];運(yùn)籌學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2011年04期

7 金鳳;王燕;張淑欣;;物流中心供貨商的進(jìn)貨配送排程問題研究[J];中國(guó)商貿(mào);2011年17期

8 孫有發(fā);郭旭沖;梁肖肖;劉彩燕;張成科;;現(xiàn)實(shí)復(fù)雜情形下的SIRS型傳染病模型及其控制策略[J];系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報(bào);2010年01期

9 ZHOU Steven Zhixiang;;季節(jié)性流感的多元激發(fā)理論及其包含氣象和社會(huì)行為因素的數(shù)學(xué)模型[J];熱帶氣象學(xué)報(bào);2009年06期

10 夏承遺;劉忠信;陳增強(qiáng);袁著祉;;移動(dòng)群體中基于SIR模型的疾病傳播行為[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(工學(xué)版);2009年05期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 張宇楠;啟發(fā)式智能優(yōu)化算法的研究與應(yīng)用[D];廣西民族大學(xué);2013年

2 郭金芬;面向大型地震的應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];天津大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號(hào)：1805956