本文選題：航空運(yùn)價(jià)　切入點(diǎn)：假日效應(yīng)　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：云南省擁有獨(dú)特的自然條件,在政府支持下,花卉產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展,其中鮮切花產(chǎn)量連續(xù)二十三年全國(guó)第一,占國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)份額的百分之七十五以上,是全國(guó)乃至亞洲最大的鮮切花生產(chǎn)營(yíng)銷中心。盡管云南省鮮切花產(chǎn)業(yè)已取得了很好的成績(jī),但產(chǎn)業(yè)自身還存在許多困難,其中最為突出的問(wèn)題在于鮮切花物流的不通暢:汽車(chē)運(yùn)輸和火車(chē)運(yùn)輸?shù)牧魍ㄋ俣嚷?且缺乏先進(jìn)的物流設(shè)施設(shè)備,其中采后處理技術(shù)、保鮮技術(shù)、冷鏈物流技術(shù)也相對(duì)滯后,造成鮮切花的損耗率過(guò)高,導(dǎo)致航空運(yùn)輸成為云南省鮮切花流通的主要運(yùn)輸方式,因此鮮切花的航空運(yùn)價(jià)與鮮切花物流成本有著密不可分的關(guān)系,航空運(yùn)價(jià)的波動(dòng)對(duì)于鮮切花成本的波動(dòng)有著較大影響。尤其部分節(jié)假日期間,航空運(yùn)輸資源緊缺,航空運(yùn)價(jià)波動(dòng)異常,鮮切花成本也會(huì)隨之波動(dòng),因此研究航空運(yùn)價(jià)波動(dòng)的假日效應(yīng)對(duì)云南省鮮切花產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展有著非常重要的意義。為了研究云南省鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)波動(dòng)的假日效應(yīng),本文以昆明國(guó)際花卉交易中心代理發(fā)貨商的鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)為研究對(duì)象,根據(jù)調(diào)查結(jié)果篩選出對(duì)鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)可能產(chǎn)生影響的節(jié)假日,通過(guò)繪制時(shí)間序列線圖識(shí)別季節(jié)因素并進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)分析,利用Eviews工具,結(jié)合計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的理論知識(shí),建立時(shí)間序列的虛擬變量模型,初步判斷哪些節(jié)假日可能會(huì)使鮮切花的航空運(yùn)價(jià)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,為了驗(yàn)證該推測(cè),需進(jìn)一步構(gòu)建鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)的GARCH模型,擬合航空運(yùn)價(jià)序列,對(duì)假日效應(yīng)帶來(lái)的影響進(jìn)行更細(xì)致的實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)研究云南省鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)的波動(dòng)規(guī)律,發(fā)現(xiàn)元旦、春節(jié)、情人節(jié)、婦女節(jié)、清明節(jié)、母親節(jié)、七夕節(jié)、中秋節(jié)、國(guó)慶節(jié)、圣誕節(jié)的鮮切花航空運(yùn)價(jià)明顯受到假日效應(yīng)的影響,而母親節(jié)的假日效應(yīng)影響不顯著,通過(guò)分析節(jié)假日期間航空運(yùn)價(jià)發(fā)生波動(dòng)的原因以及假日效應(yīng)帶來(lái)的影響,分別對(duì)政府、供應(yīng)商、分銷商、消費(fèi)者、運(yùn)輸單位提出相關(guān)的對(duì)策建議,希望能夠有效降低鮮切花的物流成本,提高產(chǎn)業(yè)效益,并為云南省鮮切花產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)銷和出口找到一條經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)惠的出路,將云南省鮮切花自身的各項(xiàng)優(yōu)勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì),將云南省的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)化為優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè),這對(duì)云南省鮮切花產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展有著至關(guān)重要的作用,并具有很高的研究?jī)r(jià)值和意義。
[Abstract]:Yunnan Province has unique natural conditions. With the support of the government, the flower industry has developed rapidly. Among them, fresh cut flower production has been the first in the country for 23 consecutive years, accounting for more than 75% of the domestic market share.It is the largest fresh cut flower production and marketing center in China and even Asia.Although the fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province has made good achievements, there are still many difficulties in the industry itself, among which the most prominent problem is that the flow of fresh cut flowers is not smooth: the speed of circulation of automobile transportation and train transportation is slow.And the lack of advanced logistics facilities, including post-harvest treatment technology, fresh-keeping technology, cold-chain logistics technology is also relatively lagging behind, resulting in the loss rate of fresh cut flowers is too high, resulting in air transport has become the main transportation mode of fresh cut flowers circulation in Yunnan Province.Therefore, the air freight rate of fresh cut flower is closely related to the logistics cost of fresh cut flower, and the fluctuation of air freight rate has great influence on the fluctuation of fresh cut flower cost.Especially during some holidays, the air transportation resources are scarce, the air transport price fluctuates unusually, the fresh cut flower cost will also fluctuate with it, so it is very important to study the holiday effect of the air freight price fluctuation for the development of Yunnan fresh cut flower industry.In order to study the holiday effect of air freight fluctuation of fresh cut flowers in Yunnan Province, this paper takes the air freight rate data of fresh cut flowers from the agent of Kunming International Flower Trade Center as the research object.According to the results of the survey, the possible influence on the air fares of fresh cut flowers is selected. The seasonal factors are identified by drawing time series diagrams and the trend analysis is carried out, and the theoretical knowledge of econometrics and statistics is combined with the use of Eviews tools.The virtual variable model of time series is established to determine which holidays may cause the fluctuation of air freight rate of fresh cut flowers. In order to verify the hypothesis, the GARCH model of air freight rate for fresh cut flowers should be further constructed to fit the air freight sequence.A more detailed empirical analysis of the impact of the holiday effect is carried out.By studying the fluctuation law of air freight rate of fresh cut flowers in Yunnan Province, we find that New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Valentine's Day, International Working Women's Day, Ching Ming Festival, Mother's Day, Ching Ming Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day,The air fares of Christmas cut flowers are obviously affected by the holiday effect, but the holiday effect of Mother's Day is not significant. By analyzing the reasons for the fluctuation of air fares during the holidays and the effects of the holiday effects, the paper analyzes the effects on the government respectively.Suppliers, distributors, consumers, transport units put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions, hoping to effectively reduce the logistics costs of fresh cut flowers and improve industrial efficiency.And find an economical outlet for the domestic sales and export of the fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province, and turn all the advantages of the fresh cut flower industry of Yunnan Province into the economic advantage, and turn the new industry of Yunnan Province into the advantage industry.It plays an important role in the development of fresh cut flower industry in Yunnan Province and has high research value and significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;F562.5

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