本文關鍵詞： 水產品 冷鏈物流需求 組合預測模型 IOWHA算子 趨勢外推法　出處：《昆明理工大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著人們經濟生活水平的提高,水產品豐富的營養(yǎng)價值獲得消費者的喜愛,并且水產品的安全質量也受到消費者不斷關注,冷鏈物流的出現恰恰能為水產品提供質量保證,受到人們的歡迎。江蘇具有非常優(yōu)越的地理條件,是全國唯數不多靠江靠海的省份,水產品資源特別豐富,冷鏈物流市場的發(fā)展?jié)摿薮�。因�?對水產品冷鏈物流需求進行預測,對江蘇省水產品冷鏈物流行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展具有重要的理論價值和實踐價值。本文闡述了水產品冷鏈物流需求的研究背景與意義,并介紹了國內外冷鏈物流研究的現狀,分析了江蘇省水產品冷鏈物流的發(fā)展現狀和優(yōu)劣勢。用Pearson相關系數對水產品冷鏈物流需求的影響因素進行分析,選出與水產品冷鏈物流需求的相關性較大的影響因素,并以此建立預測指標體系。通過對冷鏈物流需求預測方法的研究,分別選取了多元線性回歸理論和灰色預測理論,三次指數平滑法建立預測模型,并通過IOWHA算子組成組合預測模型。并將單一的預測法與基于IOWHA算子組合預測法進行比較,比較的結果發(fā)現基于IOWHA算子組合預測模型結果比單一預測的結果更準確。并用趨勢外推法對江蘇省未來水產品冷鏈物流需求進行了預測,預測結果顯示江蘇省水產品冷鏈物流需求會逐年上升,因此江蘇省要采取政策與措施加大對水產品冷鏈物流的支持力度。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's economic standard of living, the rich nutrition value of aquatic products has been loved by consumers, and the safety and quality of aquatic products have been paid more and more attention by consumers. The appearance of cold chain logistics can provide quality assurance for aquatic products, and it is welcomed by people. Jiangsu has very superior geographical conditions, it is the only province in the country that only depends on the river and sea, and the aquatic product resources are especially rich. The development potential of cold-chain logistics market is huge. Therefore, the demand of cold-chain logistics for aquatic products is predicted. It has important theoretical and practical value for the healthy development of aquatic product cold chain logistics industry in Jiangsu Province. This paper expounds the research background and significance of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand. The current situation of cold chain logistics research at home and abroad is also introduced. This paper analyzes the development status and advantages and disadvantages of aquatic product cold chain logistics in Jiangsu Province, and analyzes the influencing factors of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand with Pearson correlation coefficient. This paper selects the influential factors which are related to the logistics demand of the cold chain of aquatic products, and establishes the forecast index system. Through the research on the forecasting method of the demand of the cold chain logistics. The multivariate linear regression theory and grey prediction theory are selected, and the cubic exponential smoothing method is used to establish the prediction model. The combination prediction model is constructed by IOWHA operator, and the single prediction method is compared with the combination prediction method based on IOWHA operator. The results of comparison show that the combined forecasting model based on IOWHA operator is more accurate than the single one. The trend extrapolation method is used to predict the future logistics demand of aquatic products in Jiangsu Province. The forecast results show that the demand of aquatic product cold chain logistics will increase year by year, so Jiangsu Province should adopt policies and measures to strengthen the support of aquatic product cold chain logistics.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.6

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