本文關(guān)鍵詞：低碳經(jīng)濟下物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排目標預(yù)測研究　出處：《華東交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 低碳經(jīng)濟 物流碳足跡 超越對數(shù)函數(shù) 灰色預(yù)測 碳強度 能耗強度

【摘要】：物流業(yè)是連接國民經(jīng)濟生產(chǎn)與消費的紐帶，所以物流業(yè)也被形象稱作是經(jīng)濟社會的 輸血管‖。雖然物流業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中占據(jù)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)的地位，但不容忽視的是物流業(yè)也是高能源消耗、溫室氣體排放的主要來源。為發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟，減輕霧霾污染和減少溫室氣體排放，，物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排的工作刻不容緩，首先構(gòu)造超越對數(shù)函數(shù)模型對物流能源利用效率和結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀進行分析；并從能源消耗角度測算了2004-2012年省域物流業(yè)的碳足跡，根據(jù)測算結(jié)果并參考政府節(jié)能減排的工作文件，提出我國不同省域物流業(yè)在 十二五‖、 十三五‖期間的碳強度和能耗強度目標規(guī)劃值，并引入灰色預(yù)測模型進行分析。結(jié)果表明：1.2002年開始，我國物流能源利用效率在顯著提高，尤以天然氣能源投入的貢獻最大，電力、天然氣為代表的清潔能源可以有效替代石油和煤炭，并且天然氣、電力等能源技術(shù)進步速度要快于石油、煤炭，未來物流業(yè)高碳排放能源將被清潔能源逐步替代；2.我國物流碳足跡的排放總量一直呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，西北省份如寧夏、內(nèi)蒙古等漲幅最快，上海、廣東等沿海省份增速放緩，從物流碳足跡規(guī)模角度可分為四個層次；3.根據(jù)目前物流業(yè)節(jié)能減排的現(xiàn)狀，預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示 十二五‖期間我國未能完成物流碳足跡動態(tài)節(jié)能減排目標，但在 十三五‖期間可以完成，全國一半省份可以完成研究期內(nèi)物流碳足跡節(jié)能減排 雙強度‖目標，并且大部分省市的 雙強度‖值呈下降趨勢。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry is the link between the national economy production and consumption, so the logistics industry is also referred to as the economic and social blood vessel, although the logistics industry occupies the position of the pillar industry in the national economy. But the logistics industry is also a high energy consumption, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. In order to develop a low-carbon economy, reduce haze pollution and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the logistics industry energy conservation and emission reduction work is urgent. Firstly, a transcendental logarithmic function model is constructed to analyze the current situation of logistics energy utilization efficiency and structure. And from the perspective of energy consumption, the paper calculates the carbon footprint of provincial logistics industry from 2004 to 2012, according to the calculation results and referring to the working document of government energy saving and emission reduction. The target planning values of carbon intensity and energy intensity in different provinces of China are put forward. The results show that: 1. Since 2002, the efficiency of logistics energy utilization in China has been significantly improved, especially the contribution of natural gas energy input, electric power. Natural gas as the representative of clean energy can effectively replace oil and coal, and natural gas, electricity and other energy technology progress faster than oil and coal. In the future, high carbon emission energy in logistics industry will be replaced by clean energy. 2. The total emission of logistics carbon footprint in China has been on the rise, northwest provinces such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other fastest growth, Shanghai, Guangdong and other coastal provinces slow growth. From the perspective of logistics carbon footprint scale, it can be divided into four levels; 3.According to the current situation of energy saving and emission reduction in logistics industry, the forecast results show that China failed to complete the dynamic energy saving and emission reduction target of logistics carbon footprint during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, but it can be completed during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Half of the provinces in China can fulfill the target of carbon footprint energy saving and emission reduction during the research period and the value of double intensity is decreasing in most provinces and cities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F259.2;F205

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