發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-02 07:27

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：貨改條件下鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)需求預(yù)測(cè)及體系框架構(gòu)建　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貨運(yùn)改革 快捷貨運(yùn) 四階段法 需求預(yù)測(cè)

【摘要】：我國(guó)傳統(tǒng)的鐵路貨物運(yùn)輸生產(chǎn)組織工作是以運(yùn)輸能力利用為核心,而非以客戶(hù)服務(wù)為中心,是一種生產(chǎn)型而不是營(yíng)銷(xiāo)型的貨運(yùn)組織形式。這種生產(chǎn)管理模式在鐵路運(yùn)輸組織過(guò)程中有許多弊端,在當(dāng)今運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)異常激烈的情況下,鐵路部門(mén)若不改變現(xiàn)狀,就將會(huì)被市場(chǎng)所淘汰。鐵路企業(yè)針對(duì)以上困境,決定從根本上進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)體制的改革和觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變,在鐵路貨運(yùn)改革背景下,對(duì)鐵路貨運(yùn)發(fā)展模式提出了新的要求。首先,本文通過(guò)分析我國(guó)貨運(yùn)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境和傳統(tǒng)鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)產(chǎn)品的不足,指出我國(guó)鐵路在貨運(yùn)改革背景下發(fā)展快捷貨運(yùn)的必要性和可行性。結(jié)合鐵路貨運(yùn)改革的具體要求和內(nèi)容,并運(yùn)用現(xiàn)代物流理念對(duì)快捷貨運(yùn)需求市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行劃分。其次,通過(guò)構(gòu)建基于“四階段法”的快捷貨運(yùn)需求預(yù)測(cè)模型來(lái)對(duì)我國(guó)快捷貨運(yùn)宏觀需求環(huán)境進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析,求得我國(guó)快捷貨運(yùn)需求總量增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)、分布特征,然后,分別研究了鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)各指標(biāo)因素及產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)對(duì)快捷貨運(yùn)需求分擔(dān)率的影響程度,從定量分析的角度證明了發(fā)展鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)的必要性,同時(shí)也驗(yàn)證了“四階段法”思想在進(jìn)行鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)需求預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)程中的可行性,為研究鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)需求預(yù)測(cè)提供了一個(gè)具有實(shí)踐意義的方向。最后,根據(jù)鐵路貨運(yùn)改革中核心思想及需求預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果,從生產(chǎn)組織、產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)及營(yíng)銷(xiāo)策略三個(gè)層面對(duì)鐵路快捷貨運(yùn)體系框架進(jìn)行構(gòu)建,為鐵路系統(tǒng)今后在開(kāi)展快捷貨運(yùn)方面提供一定決策建議及發(fā)展思路。
[Abstract]:China's traditional railway freight transport production organization work is based on the utilization of transport capacity, not on customer service as the center. This mode of production and management has many disadvantages in the process of railway transportation organization. If the railway sector does not change the status quo, it will be eliminated by the market. In view of the above difficulties, railway enterprises have decided to carry out a fundamental reform of the system and the change of concept, under the background of the reform of railway freight transport. The development mode of railway freight transport has put forward new requirements. First of all, this paper analyzes the market environment of freight transport in China and the shortcomings of traditional railway express freight transport products. This paper points out the necessity and feasibility of developing express freight transportation in the context of freight transport reform in China, and combines with the specific requirements and contents of railway freight transport reform. And use the modern logistics concept to divide the express freight transport demand market. Secondly, through the construction of the "four-stage" express freight demand forecasting model to forecast and analyze the macro demand environment of China's express freight transport. To find out the growth trend and distribution characteristics of the total demand for express freight transport in China. Then, the factors of each index and the degree of influence of product development on the demand sharing rate of express freight transport are studied respectively. The necessity of developing railway express freight is proved from the angle of quantitative analysis, and the feasibility of "four-stage method" in forecasting the demand of railway express freight is also verified. It provides a practical direction for the research of railway express freight demand prediction. Finally, according to the core idea of railway freight transport reform and demand forecasting results, from the production organization. The framework of railway express freight transport system is constructed from three aspects of product development and marketing strategy, which provides some decision suggestions and development ideas for railway system in developing express freight transport in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U294.13

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本文編號(hào)：1368260