本文選題：突發(fā)事件　切入點：應急響應　出處：《東北大學》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,世界各地各種突發(fā)事件頻繁發(fā)生,給社會安定和人民生命財產(chǎn)安全造成了巨大威脅。在這種背景下,及時有效地做出應急響應將有效降低突發(fā)事件所造成的損失。因此,在突發(fā)事件剛剛發(fā)生或出現(xiàn)某些征兆時,如何從多個備選應急方案或應急預案中選擇最優(yōu)方案以最大限度地減少突發(fā)事件所造成的損失,是一個具有實際意義的重要研究課題。 本文以突發(fā)事件應急決策理論、方法和應用研究分析為切入點,主要研究了兩個問題：第一個問題是,如何根據(jù)突發(fā)事件的已有信息對其可能的情景概率進行估算。在突發(fā)事件發(fā)生時,根據(jù)事件背景特征、專家知識和相似事件的歷史經(jīng)驗對該突發(fā)事件可能出現(xiàn)的情景概率進行估算；第二個問題是,如何在考慮應急成本、事件后果的基礎上針對突發(fā)事件進行應急方案的選擇。由于在許多突發(fā)事件應急決策過程中,決策者往往不是完全理性的。所以本文中考慮決策者在面臨高危害后果時行為規(guī)避的特征,在應急過程中引入行為決策的相關(guān)研究成果。 本文主要完成了以下四個方面的研究工作： (1)提煉了一類突發(fā)事件風險決策問題。針對許多突發(fā)事件的應急問題都具有風險決策的特征,本文主要提煉了一類具有高危害結(jié)果的突發(fā)事件應急響應風險決策問題。 (2)提出了基于故障樹分析的情景概率計算方法。首先根據(jù)專家知識和相似事件的歷史經(jīng)驗,確定頂事件、中間事件和基本事件,并繪制故障樹；然后,根據(jù)專家知識,確定不同應急方案下,基本事件出現(xiàn)的概率；最后,根據(jù)頂事件、中間事件和基本事件之間的邏輯關(guān)系,計算中間事件和頂事件的概率。 (3)提出了基于前景理論的突發(fā)事件應急方案選擇方法。首先,計算突發(fā)事件不同情景的綜合價值,即定量化描述針對不同情景的人員傷亡和財產(chǎn)損失的決策者綜合心理感知；然后,計算突發(fā)事件不同情景的權(quán)重,即定量化描述針對不同情景出現(xiàn)的重要性程度的決策者心理感知；在此基礎上,依據(jù)情景綜合價值、情景權(quán)重和應急方案的成本投入,計算各應急方案的綜合前景值,并依據(jù)綜合前景值的大小確定應急方案排序。 (4)給出了考慮決策者行為的突發(fā)事件應急響應決策方法在傳染病應急過程中的應用研究。本文以我國北方某高校A突現(xiàn)H1N1病例的應急決策過程為潛在應用背景。驗證了本文提出的應急決策模型的合理性,其計算結(jié)果證明了模型的有效性。 在論文最后,總結(jié)了本文的主要研究成果及結(jié)論、研究的主要貢獻和局限以及需要進一步開展的工作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a variety of emergencies occur frequently around the world, which pose a great threat to social stability and the safety of people's lives and property.In this context, timely and effective emergency response will effectively reduce the losses caused by emergencies.Therefore, how to select the optimal scheme from multiple emergency options or contingency plans in order to minimize the losses caused by emergencies, when the emergency has just occurred or some symptoms have appeared.It is an important research topic with practical significance.Based on the theory, method and application of emergency decision making, this paper mainly studies two problems: the first problem is how to estimate the probability of possible scenarios according to the existing information of emergencies.In the event of an emergency, according to the background characteristics of the event, expert knowledge and historical experience of similar events, the probability of the scenario that the emergency may occur is estimated. The second problem is how to consider the emergency cost.On the basis of the consequence of the incident, the emergency plan is chosen for the unexpected event.In many emergency decision-making processes, decision-makers are often not completely rational.In this paper, we consider the characteristics of behavior evading in the face of high harm consequences, and introduce the relevant research results of behavior decision in the process of emergency response.This paper mainly completed the following four aspects of research:1) A kind of emergency risk decision problem is refined.In view of the fact that many emergent problems of emergencies have the characteristics of risk decision, this paper presents a kind of risk decision problems of emergency response of emergencies with high hazard results.(2) A scenario probability calculation method based on fault tree analysis is proposed.First, based on the expert knowledge and the historical experience of similar events, the top event, intermediate event and basic event are determined, and the fault tree is drawn. Then, according to the expert knowledge, the probability of the occurrence of the basic event under different emergency plans is determined; finally, the probability of the occurrence of the basic event is determined according to the expert knowledge.According to the logical relationship between top event, intermediate event and basic event, the probability of intermediate event and top event is calculated.3) the method of selecting emergency plan based on prospect theory is put forward.First of all, the comprehensive value of different scenarios of emergencies is calculated, that is, the comprehensive psychological perception of decision-makers who quantitatively describe the casualties and property losses in different scenarios, and then the weights of different scenarios of emergencies are calculated.That is to say, quantificationally describe the psychological perception of decision-makers in view of the importance of different scenarios, and calculate the comprehensive foreground value of each emergency plan according to the comprehensive value of the scenario, the weight of the scenario and the cost input of the emergency plan.And according to the size of the comprehensive foreground value to determine the emergency program order.4) the research on the application of emergency response decision method considering the behavior of decision makers in the process of infectious disease emergency response is presented.The background of this paper is the emergency decision-making process of A emergent H1N1 cases in a university in the north of China.The rationality of the proposed emergency decision model is verified, and the validity of the model is proved by the calculation results.At the end of the paper, the main research results and conclusions, the main contributions and limitations of the research and the work needed to be carried out are summarized.
【學位授予單位】：東北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C934;D035.2

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