本文選題：微信產(chǎn)品 + 創(chuàng)新擴散模型��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的逐步擴散與廣泛應用,其業(yè)務范圍涉及眾多領域,不僅為用戶帶來新型的生活方式,為各行業(yè)帶來了新的商機,也導致軟件產(chǎn)品間的競爭日益激烈。掌握互聯(lián)網(wǎng)移動端應用軟件的創(chuàng)新研發(fā)方向,研究成功的應用軟件的創(chuàng)新擴散模型,可以幫助移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)產(chǎn)業(yè)進行快速發(fā)展。微信產(chǎn)品是即時通訊類軟件中當之無愧的佼佼者,也是我國研發(fā)的基于智能移動端的流量較大的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)軟件之一。本文以微信產(chǎn)品為研究對象分析該產(chǎn)品的創(chuàng)新功能特點,分析該產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散特征從而建立相應的產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散模型,并對微信產(chǎn)品未來的創(chuàng)新擴散情況進行預測,從而提出相應的改進策略。本文首先對行文所需要的基礎理論進行梳理,對微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散過程進行概念的界定,并闡述了Bass擴散模型以及附隨擴散模型的理論以便后文模型建立。分析研究對象微信產(chǎn)品的創(chuàng)新功能特點,并結合Bass擴散模型以及附隨擴散模型建立的基礎條件進行微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散方面的特征分析,從而確定微信產(chǎn)品在創(chuàng)新擴散方面不符合原有模型的獨特點所在,并分析可能影響微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散的要素。其次是微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散模型的建立與模型的實證分析部分。經(jīng)典的Bass擴散模型在建立前應滿足多條研究假設,微信產(chǎn)品由于其虛擬產(chǎn)品的特征,無法滿足全部假設,原始模型不適用于微信產(chǎn)品。因此,本文基于基礎Bass擴散模型結合微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散的特征加以改進擴展,通過添加模型參數(shù)來減少模型的使用限制。本文通過改進擴展得到三種適合分析微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散過程的改進模型,分別為微信產(chǎn)品與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)業(yè)務的附隨擴散模型、微信產(chǎn)品發(fā)展影響因素時變模型以及結合以上兩種改進的總模型。經(jīng)過實證分析得出,各模型的擬合結果均較好,驗證了改進模型的可行性,并且各模型均有其優(yōu)缺點以及適用的場景。同時,通過各模型的估參結果確定影響微信產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新擴散的主要影響因素。最后,本文利用改進的創(chuàng)新擴散模型對微信產(chǎn)品未來創(chuàng)新擴散規(guī)模的用戶數(shù)進行預測并驗證估計值的準確性。結合預測結果與模型估參結果,為微信產(chǎn)品的后續(xù)推廣提出四條改進策略,并對本文改進的創(chuàng)新擴散模型的補充研究以及應用領域進行展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual diffusion and wide application of mobile Internet industry, its business scope involves many fields, which not only brings new life style for users, but also brings new business opportunities for various industries, and also leads to increasingly fierce competition among software products. Mastering the direction of innovation and development of mobile application software and researching the innovation diffusion model of successful application software can help the mobile Internet industry to develop rapidly. WeChat is a worthy leader in instant messaging software, and is also one of the Internet software developed in China based on intelligent mobile terminal. This paper takes WeChat product as the research object to analyze the innovation function characteristic of the product, analyze the innovation diffusion characteristic of the product, establish the corresponding product innovation diffusion model, and predict the innovation diffusion situation of WeChat product in the future. Accordingly, the corresponding improvement strategies are put forward. In this paper, the basic theory needed in the article is firstly combed, the concept of innovation diffusion process of WeChat product is defined, and the theory of Bass diffusion model and accompanying diffusion model is expounded to establish the following model. The characteristics of innovation function of WeChat products are analyzed, and the characteristics of innovation diffusion of WeChat products are analyzed based on the basic conditions of Bass diffusion model and accompanying diffusion model. Therefore, the unique point of WeChat product in innovation diffusion is determined, and the factors that may affect the innovation diffusion of WeChat product are analyzed. The second part is the establishment of WeChat product innovation diffusion model and the empirical analysis of the model. The classical Bass diffusion model should satisfy many research hypotheses before it is established. WeChat products can not satisfy all the hypotheses because of the characteristics of their virtual products. The original model is not suitable for WeChat products. Therefore, based on the basic Bass diffusion model and the characteristics of WeChat product innovation diffusion, the model parameters are added to reduce the use of the model. In this paper, we obtain three improved models for analyzing the innovation diffusion process of WeChat products, which are the accompanying diffusion models of WeChat products and Internet services. The time-varying model of the influencing factors of WeChat product development and the general model combined with the above two improved models. The results of empirical analysis show that the fitting results of each model are good, which verifies the feasibility of the improved model, and each model has its advantages and disadvantages as well as applicable scenarios. At the same time, the main factors influencing the innovation diffusion of WeChat products are determined by the estimation results of each model. Finally, this paper uses the improved innovation diffusion model to predict the number of users of the future innovation diffusion scale of WeChat products and verify the accuracy of the estimated value. Combined with the prediction results and the model estimation results, four improvement strategies are proposed for the further promotion of WeChat products. The supplementary research and application fields of the improved innovation diffusion model in this paper are prospected.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F49;F273.1

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