【摘要】：鑒于日益增長的能源需求和傳統(tǒng)能源的不斷耗竭，以及其帶來的嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染問題，可再生能源的發(fā)展已成為當(dāng)今世界各國的關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。根據(jù)我國的資源稟賦狀況，風(fēng)電資源既具備了良好的社會(huì)效益，同時(shí)也具備著良好的環(huán)境效益，近年來，風(fēng)電技術(shù)水平日益成熟，近海風(fēng)電的發(fā)展迅速，大大降低了發(fā)電成本，因此，風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)必將成為我國發(fā)展可再生能源產(chǎn)業(yè)中的重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)。2006年可再生能源法的頒布，使風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展進(jìn)入了一個(gè)更加規(guī)范和不斷完善的發(fā)展階段。本文立足于供需關(guān)系的角度，通過建立風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，分析現(xiàn)階段我國風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，對(duì)未來的發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行政策模擬研究，并提出優(yōu)化改善方案。 首先，對(duì)我國風(fēng)能資源的稟賦情況進(jìn)行描述，包括陸地風(fēng)能資源和海上風(fēng)能資源，總結(jié)風(fēng)能資源的地域和季節(jié)特點(diǎn)。分析描述現(xiàn)階段我國風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，其中主要包括對(duì)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的三類結(jié)構(gòu)模式的介紹，對(duì)風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展歷經(jīng)的四個(gè)階段的評(píng)述，以及近年來國家對(duì)于在扶持風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展過程中提出的相關(guān)政策等。 其次，立足于風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的供需關(guān)系角度，建立風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。根據(jù)系統(tǒng)總體的初步因果分析，將風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)分為供給子系統(tǒng)和需求子系統(tǒng)，并對(duì)兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部各個(gè)要素進(jìn)行深入分析，其中供給子系統(tǒng)主要包括資源、勞動(dòng)力、資金和技術(shù)四個(gè)主要影響因素；需求子系統(tǒng)主要包括經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需求和生活用電需求兩個(gè)主要因素，通過選取影響各要素不同變量之間的相互作用、相互影響關(guān)系，構(gòu)建出風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。 最后，運(yùn)用“十一五”期間的原始數(shù)據(jù)模型進(jìn)行效果檢驗(yàn)，驗(yàn)證模型的預(yù)測可靠性，利用2010年的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)“十二五”和“十三五”期間的發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行政策模擬預(yù)測，通過調(diào)整不同變量的參數(shù)值，比較在不同政策傾向下風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展走勢，根據(jù)資源優(yōu)化配置的原則，對(duì)方案進(jìn)行優(yōu)化調(diào)控，提出未來10年風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的政策方案。最后總結(jié)研究得出的結(jié)論，探討了研究中存在的不足和改進(jìn)方案，對(duì)這一領(lǐng)域的研究未來進(jìn)行了長遠(yuǎn)的展望。
[Abstract]:In view of the increasing demand for energy and the constant depletion of traditional energy, as well as the serious environmental pollution caused by it, the development of renewable energy has become the focus of attention in the world today. According to our country's resource endowment, wind power resources not only have good social benefits, but also have good environmental benefits. In recent years, wind power technology level is maturing day by day, offshore wind power develops rapidly, and the cost of power generation is greatly reduced. Therefore, wind power industry is bound to become the key industry in the development of renewable energy industry in our country. The promulgation of renewable energy law in 2006 has made the development of wind power industry into a more standardized and continuous development stage. Based on the relationship between supply and demand, this paper sets up the system dynamics model of wind power industry, analyzes the current situation of wind power industry development in China at present, carries on the policy simulation research to the future development direction, and puts forward the optimized improvement scheme. Firstly, the endowment of wind energy resources in China is described, including land wind energy resources and offshore wind energy resources, and the regional and seasonal characteristics of wind energy resources are summarized. This paper analyzes and describes the development of wind power industry in China at this stage, which mainly includes the introduction of three types of structural models for the development of wind power industry, and comments on the four stages experienced in the development of wind power industry. And in recent years the state in support of wind power industry development in the process of relevant policies and so on. Secondly, based on the relationship between supply and demand of wind power industry, the system dynamics model of wind power industry is established. According to the preliminary causal analysis of the whole system, the wind power industry system is divided into the supply subsystem and the demand subsystem, and the internal elements of the two subsystems are analyzed in depth, in which the supply subsystem mainly includes resources and labor force. Four main influencing factors of finance and technology; The demand subsystem mainly includes two main factors: economic development demand and domestic electricity demand. The system dynamics model of wind power industry is constructed by selecting the interaction between different variables and influencing each other. Finally, using the original data model during the Eleventh five-year Plan period to test the effectiveness of the model, verify the reliability of the model, and use the basic data of 2010 to simulate and forecast the development trend of the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan period. By adjusting the parameter values of different variables and comparing the development trend of wind power industry under different policy trends, according to the principle of optimal allocation of resources, the scheme is optimized and regulated, and the policy scheme for the development of wind power industry in the next 10 years is put forward. Finally, the conclusion of the study is summarized, the deficiency and improvement scheme are discussed, and the future of the research in this field is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)（北京）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2468329