河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-15 13:39
【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),全球范圍內(nèi)石油資源短缺和環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題日益加劇,以燃油為主的傳統(tǒng)汽車的普及更增加了能源和環(huán)境壓力,汽車消耗的石油占總耗油的40%到50%,同時(shí)向大氣中排放大量的二氧化碳、氮氧化物、硫化物等,節(jié)能環(huán)保的新能源汽車日益成為汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)改革轉(zhuǎn)型的新方向,新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)也日益成為各國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移能源與環(huán)境壓力的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。 同樣,上世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),中國(guó)的汽車工業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)了跨越式發(fā)展,作為世界最大的汽車消費(fèi)市場(chǎng),近年來(lái)中國(guó)的汽車保有量在急劇上升,2007年年末全國(guó)私人轎車擁有量為2876.22萬(wàn)輛,2011年年末已達(dá)到7326.79萬(wàn)輛,比2010年末增長(zhǎng)23.37%。隨著汽車工業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,給中國(guó)帶來(lái)了巨大的能源消耗與環(huán)境污染,在能源危機(jī)與環(huán)境污染的雙重壓力下,發(fā)展新能源汽車已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)和持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要舉措。新能源汽車的出現(xiàn)一直被譽(yù)為中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)彎道超車的好機(jī)會(huì),但是從汽車行業(yè)的國(guó)際形勢(shì)看,中國(guó)和歐美、日本的整車技術(shù)、零部件技術(shù)乃至市場(chǎng)的差距還是很大。 河南省作為國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展新能源汽車較早的省份,擁有一批基礎(chǔ)雄厚的汽車生產(chǎn)企業(yè),并且已經(jīng)形成相當(dāng)規(guī)模技術(shù)先進(jìn)的鋰電池生產(chǎn)企業(yè)。地處中原的河南省,還擁有便捷的交通與物流、扎實(shí)的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)。隨著中原經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的形成與建設(shè),中部崛起的號(hào)召與推進(jìn),以及河南省得天獨(dú)厚的優(yōu)勢(shì),為新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供了廣闊的空間。雖然當(dāng)前在新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展方面河南省取得了階段性的成就,但是要實(shí)現(xiàn)新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化還需要漫長(zhǎng)的道路。任何一項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的發(fā)展過(guò)程都是與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并存的,河南省的新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)在發(fā)展過(guò)程中也不可避免的伴隨著政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文首先分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外以及河南省的新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀來(lái)介紹目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的研究成果,再通過(guò)對(duì)河南省能源結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的預(yù)測(cè),用客觀數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)了河南省發(fā)展新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的必要性。最后是建立河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)體系,計(jì)算河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,評(píng)價(jià)河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其中運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)軟件EVIEWS建立了ARIMA預(yù)測(cè)模型以及運(yùn)用到了客觀的權(quán)重計(jì)算方法—改進(jìn)的熵值法,以客觀的角度重新認(rèn)識(shí)了河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)化過(guò)程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),針對(duì)影響河南省新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出相對(duì)應(yīng)的規(guī)避對(duì)策,從而也希望此篇論文的研究成果能為河南省新能源汽車的產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展獻(xiàn)出綿薄之力。新能源汽車的產(chǎn)業(yè)化需要經(jīng)歷漫長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展階段,當(dāng)技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)、運(yùn)營(yíng)、政策等各方面都處于成熟階段時(shí)新能源汽車才是真正適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì),為經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)所應(yīng)用的一項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the shortage of petroleum resources and environmental pollution have become more and more serious around the world. The popularity of traditional cars, which are dominated by fuel, has increased the pressure on energy and the environment. Cars consume 40% to 50% of the total oil consumption. At the same time, emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfides and so on into the atmosphere, energy-saving and environmentally-friendly new energy vehicles are increasingly becoming a new direction for the reform and transformation of the automotive industry. New energy automobile industry has increasingly become a new industry to transfer energy and environmental pressure. Similarly, since the 1990s, China's automobile industry has achieved great-leap-forward development, as the world's largest car consumption market, in recent years, China's car ownership has risen sharply. Private car ownership reached 28.7622 million at the end of 2007 and 73.2679 million at the end of 2011, up 23.37 percent from the end of 2010. With the rapid development of automobile industry, it has brought huge energy consumption and environmental pollution to China. Under the double pressure of energy crisis and environmental pollution, The development of new energy vehicles has become an important measure to realize the upgrading and sustainable development of automobile industry in China. The emergence of new energy vehicles has always been regarded as a good opportunity for China's automobile industry to overtake. But from the international situation of automobile industry, there is still a great gap between China, Europe and the United States and Japan in vehicle technology, spare parts technology and even the market. Henan Province, as a province with the early development of new energy vehicles in China, has a number of strong-based automobile production enterprises, and has formed a considerable scale of advanced technology lithium battery production enterprises. Henan Province, located in the Central Plains, also has convenient transportation and logistics, a solid industrial foundation. With the formation and construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the call and promotion of the rise of the Central China, and the unique advantages of Henan Province, it provides a broad space for the development of the new energy automobile industry. Although Henan Province has made some achievements in the development of new energy automobile industry at present, it still needs a long way to realize the industrialization of new energy automobile. The development process of any economic activity is co-existing with risk. The new energy automobile industry in Henan Province is inevitably accompanied by policy risk, technical risk, market risk and operational risk in the process of development. This paper first analyzes the development of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad as well as Henan Province to introduce the research results of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad, and then forecasts the development trend of energy structure in Henan Province. The necessity of developing new energy automobile industry in Henan province is confirmed by objective data. Finally, the risk system of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is established, the weight of risk index of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is calculated, and the risk of new energy automobile industry in Henan province is evaluated. The econometrics software EVIEWS is used to establish the ARIMA prediction model and the improved entropy method, which is an objective weight calculation method, to re-understand the risks in the industrialization of new energy vehicles in Henan Province from an objective point of view. In view of the key risks affecting the development of new energy automobile industry in Henan Province, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, and the research results of this paper are also hoped to contribute a little to the industrialization development of new energy vehicles in Henan Province. The industrialization of new energy vehicle needs to go through a long period of development. When technology, market, operation, policy and other aspects are in mature stage, new energy vehicle is a kind of economic activity that adapts to the economy and society and is applied for the economy and society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.471
本文編號(hào)：2440679
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the shortage of petroleum resources and environmental pollution have become more and more serious around the world. The popularity of traditional cars, which are dominated by fuel, has increased the pressure on energy and the environment. Cars consume 40% to 50% of the total oil consumption. At the same time, emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfides and so on into the atmosphere, energy-saving and environmentally-friendly new energy vehicles are increasingly becoming a new direction for the reform and transformation of the automotive industry. New energy automobile industry has increasingly become a new industry to transfer energy and environmental pressure. Similarly, since the 1990s, China's automobile industry has achieved great-leap-forward development, as the world's largest car consumption market, in recent years, China's car ownership has risen sharply. Private car ownership reached 28.7622 million at the end of 2007 and 73.2679 million at the end of 2011, up 23.37 percent from the end of 2010. With the rapid development of automobile industry, it has brought huge energy consumption and environmental pollution to China. Under the double pressure of energy crisis and environmental pollution, The development of new energy vehicles has become an important measure to realize the upgrading and sustainable development of automobile industry in China. The emergence of new energy vehicles has always been regarded as a good opportunity for China's automobile industry to overtake. But from the international situation of automobile industry, there is still a great gap between China, Europe and the United States and Japan in vehicle technology, spare parts technology and even the market. Henan Province, as a province with the early development of new energy vehicles in China, has a number of strong-based automobile production enterprises, and has formed a considerable scale of advanced technology lithium battery production enterprises. Henan Province, located in the Central Plains, also has convenient transportation and logistics, a solid industrial foundation. With the formation and construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone, the call and promotion of the rise of the Central China, and the unique advantages of Henan Province, it provides a broad space for the development of the new energy automobile industry. Although Henan Province has made some achievements in the development of new energy automobile industry at present, it still needs a long way to realize the industrialization of new energy automobile. The development process of any economic activity is co-existing with risk. The new energy automobile industry in Henan Province is inevitably accompanied by policy risk, technical risk, market risk and operational risk in the process of development. This paper first analyzes the development of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad as well as Henan Province to introduce the research results of new energy automobile industry at home and abroad, and then forecasts the development trend of energy structure in Henan Province. The necessity of developing new energy automobile industry in Henan province is confirmed by objective data. Finally, the risk system of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is established, the weight of risk index of new energy automobile industrialization in Henan province is calculated, and the risk of new energy automobile industry in Henan province is evaluated. The econometrics software EVIEWS is used to establish the ARIMA prediction model and the improved entropy method, which is an objective weight calculation method, to re-understand the risks in the industrialization of new energy vehicles in Henan Province from an objective point of view. In view of the key risks affecting the development of new energy automobile industry in Henan Province, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward, and the research results of this paper are also hoped to contribute a little to the industrialization development of new energy vehicles in Henan Province. The industrialization of new energy vehicle needs to go through a long period of development. When technology, market, operation, policy and other aspects are in mature stage, new energy vehicle is a kind of economic activity that adapts to the economy and society and is applied for the economy and society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.471
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