【摘要】：我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),能源需求旺盛,奠定了天然氣消費(fèi)的基礎(chǔ)。同時(shí)在改善環(huán)境質(zhì)量與全球碳減排背景下,擴(kuò)大天然氣利用規(guī)模以及提高天然氣利用比例對(duì)我國(guó)顯得尤為迫切。然而我國(guó)落后的天然氣工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)以及不健全的定價(jià)制度使得天然氣開發(fā)利用進(jìn)程緩慢。現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)天然氣定價(jià)實(shí)行的是政府指導(dǎo)下的成本加成定價(jià)方法,天然氣價(jià)格與其它可替代能源比價(jià)不合理,政府定價(jià)不能反映天然氣的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值,天然氣價(jià)格相對(duì)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)偏低,從而影響了開發(fā)企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)積極性。同時(shí)天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上中下游定價(jià)的不合理性導(dǎo)致了各方利益分配不均,影響了天然氣工業(yè)的快速發(fā)展。事實(shí)表明,我國(guó)天然氣的定價(jià)機(jī)制已經(jīng)不能適應(yīng)天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展要求。 本文從我國(guó)天然氣定價(jià)現(xiàn)狀出發(fā),對(duì)比了天然氣與其替代能源的相對(duì)價(jià)格,指出了以成本加成法為基礎(chǔ)的政府指導(dǎo)定價(jià)體制的不足之處,并對(duì)即將展開的基于市場(chǎng)凈回值法的天然氣定價(jià)改革做出了解釋和展望。隨后,本文基于天然氣供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)的視角,假設(shè)各市場(chǎng)主體競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非合作,逐層分析了各層決策者的行為與目標(biāo),構(gòu)建了包含天然氣生產(chǎn)商、零售商與消費(fèi)者三層主體在內(nèi)的天然氣供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)均衡模型,并推導(dǎo)出最終的均衡條件。隨后通過一個(gè)數(shù)值案例,驗(yàn)證了模型的準(zhǔn)確性,并進(jìn)一步探討了在變更成本、增加生產(chǎn)商數(shù)量以及規(guī)定價(jià)格上限三種不同情景下均衡結(jié)果的變化。最后以上海市為例實(shí)證分析了市場(chǎng)自由競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、終端價(jià)管制以及凈回值法定價(jià)三種情景下上海市天然氣價(jià)格以及配氣量的相應(yīng)變化。 通過分析,本文得出結(jié)論：天然氣價(jià)格上限規(guī)制使得天然氣價(jià)格偏低,導(dǎo)致了天然氣需求的膨脹,雖然價(jià)格規(guī)制能在一定程度改善消費(fèi)者福利,卻使得社會(huì)整體福利下降；天然氣價(jià)格改革的最終目標(biāo)是放松價(jià)格上限規(guī)制,使其由市場(chǎng)決定,但是必須在天然氣生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)引入競(jìng)爭(zhēng),增加天然氣開發(fā)企業(yè)數(shù)量,只有充分競(jìng)爭(zhēng)才能促使天然氣生產(chǎn)企業(yè)降低成本,使得社會(huì)整體福利增加。
[Abstract]:Our country economy continues to grow, energy demand is exuberant, laid the foundation of natural gas consumption. At the same time, under the background of improving environmental quality and reducing carbon emissions in the world, it is particularly urgent to expand the scale of natural gas utilization and increase the proportion of natural gas utilization in China. However, the backward foundation of natural gas industry and the imperfect pricing system make the development and utilization of natural gas slow. At present, the pricing of natural gas in China is based on the cost-plus pricing method under the guidance of the government. The price of natural gas is unreasonable compared with other alternative energy sources, and the government pricing cannot reflect the market value of natural gas. The price of natural gas is relatively low compared with the international market, thus affecting the production enthusiasm of development enterprises. At the same time, the unreasonable pricing in the middle and lower reaches of the natural gas industry chain leads to the uneven distribution of benefits and affects the rapid development of the natural gas industry. The facts show that the pricing mechanism of natural gas in China can not meet the requirements of the development of natural gas industry. Starting from the current situation of natural gas pricing in China, this paper compares the relative prices of natural gas with its alternative energy sources, and points out the shortcomings of the government-guided pricing system based on the cost addition method. The paper also gives an explanation and prospect of the upcoming natural gas pricing reform based on the market net return method. Then, based on the perspective of the natural gas supply chain network, this paper analyzes the behavior and objectives of the decision-makers in each layer, and constructs a natural gas producer, based on the assumption that the market players are competing and non-cooperative. The equilibrium model of natural gas supply chain network between retailer and consumer is presented, and the final equilibrium condition is deduced. Then, a numerical example is given to verify the accuracy of the model, and the variation of equilibrium results under three different scenarios, namely, changing cost, increasing the number of producers and fixing price upper limit, is further discussed. Finally, taking Shanghai as an example, the paper analyzes the corresponding changes of natural gas price and gas distribution in Shanghai under the three scenarios of free market competition, terminal price regulation and net return value pricing. Through the analysis, this paper draws a conclusion: the price of natural gas is on the low side under the upper limit regulation of natural gas price, which leads to the expansion of natural gas demand, although price regulation can improve the welfare of consumers to some extent, it makes the overall welfare of society decline; The ultimate goal of the natural gas price reform is to relax the price cap regulation and make it decided by the market, but it is necessary to introduce competition in the natural gas production link and increase the number of natural gas development enterprises. Only full competition can promote natural gas production enterprises to reduce costs and increase the overall welfare of society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22

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