【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來，隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展和科技水平的不斷進(jìn)步，人們對電力系統(tǒng)的要求也越來越高。智能電網(wǎng)作為促進(jìn)節(jié)能減排、開發(fā)可再生能源、實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要手段，是未來電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展方向。其投資規(guī)模大、技術(shù)要求高、建設(shè)周期長等特點使得智能電網(wǎng)項目風(fēng)險種類繁多、變化復(fù)雜。因此，對智能電網(wǎng)項目的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析評估，對于項目的成敗有著至關(guān)重要的作用。 風(fēng)險評價是企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項目過程中的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，本文首先介紹了風(fēng)險識別和評價方法的基本理論，通過科學(xué)的研究方法對智能電網(wǎng)項目投資風(fēng)險的構(gòu)成和特點進(jìn)行分析，并將風(fēng)險歸納分類，建立了智能電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。然后在對多種評價方法論述比較的基礎(chǔ)上，最終采用模糊綜合評價的方法，將層次分析法和模糊評價法相結(jié)合，獲得各層次風(fēng)險因素的權(quán)重和評價判斷矩陣，通過這種將定量與定性相結(jié)合的評價方法，對投資智能電網(wǎng)項目的風(fēng)險做出客觀科學(xué)的綜合評價。 為進(jìn)一步證實所建立的風(fēng)險評價模型的適用性，運用模糊層次分析方法對國電南瑞投資智能變電站項目案例進(jìn)行風(fēng)險分析和評價。首先結(jié)合實際建立了關(guān)于風(fēng)險評價的多層次綜合評價指標(biāo)體系，采用層次分析法和模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論確定指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,按照各類風(fēng)險因素對項目的影響的嚴(yán)重程度進(jìn)行了評估，并進(jìn)一步探討了國電南瑞智能變電站建設(shè)項目各類風(fēng)險的應(yīng)對措施。 本文以智能電網(wǎng)項目與風(fēng)險管理為研究目標(biāo)，探索了智能電網(wǎng)項目風(fēng)險管理中一些迷惑的問題，為電力設(shè)備企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項目提供了風(fēng)險管理的理論依據(jù)和風(fēng)險評價的方法，具有一定的理論價值和實踐意義。希望通過本文較為系統(tǒng)的研究，，能夠?qū)ξ覈悄茈娋W(wǎng)項目投資風(fēng)險的研究提供有益參考。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.6;F272.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 朱靜怡,朱淑珍;金融風(fēng)險的傳導(dǎo)機制及防御對策分析[J];東華大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2001年05期

2 于斐;;智能電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展及實施[J];電力技術(shù);2009年09期

3 包金玉;;定量和定性風(fēng)險評價方法分析(英文)[J];大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報;2008年S2期

4 陳健;;我國智能電網(wǎng)投資分析[J];電器工業(yè);2009年09期

5 陳樹勇;宋書芳;李蘭欣;沈杰;;智能電網(wǎng)技術(shù)綜述[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2009年08期

6 胡學(xué)浩;;智能電網(wǎng)——未來電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2009年14期

7 趙珊珊;張東霞;印永華;;智能電網(wǎng)的風(fēng)險評估[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2009年19期

8 孫麗麗;;基于模糊層次分析法的輸變電工程風(fēng)險評價研究[J];企業(yè)研究;2010年24期

9 曹芳;;基于兩級模糊綜合評判的輸變電工程項目決策研究[J];水電能源科學(xué);2010年09期

10 金菊良,魏一鳴,丁晶;基于改進(jìn)層次分析法的模糊綜合評價模型[J];水利學(xué)報;2004年03期

本文編號：2350807