發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-25 10:40

  本文選題：新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效 + 模糊測(cè)度��； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于化石能源的日趨減少、環(huán)境污染及氣候變化等問(wèn)題的影響，大力發(fā)展新能源電力已成為全世界的廣泛共識(shí)。然而不同國(guó)家在新能源資源、技術(shù)、環(huán)境及社會(huì)等方面的特征并不相同且每類(lèi)新能源電力都有其自身的優(yōu)勢(shì)和劣勢(shì)。如何在資金、政策和技術(shù)一定的情況下，確定新能源電力的重點(diǎn)發(fā)展領(lǐng)域，從而使新能源電力能夠更加可持續(xù)性發(fā)展，，已成為各地區(qū)所廣泛關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。本研究從以上問(wèn)題出發(fā)，構(gòu)建新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，研究基于IVTI方法的多指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)模型，并對(duì)江蘇省新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行了討論。 首先，基于新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建原則，從技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境和社會(huì)四個(gè)方面選取了技術(shù)效率、安全性、投資成本、運(yùn)行維護(hù)成本、電力成本、二氧化碳減排量、土地使用、提供就業(yè)數(shù)和年均上網(wǎng)電量9個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo)，并對(duì)指標(biāo)偏好間存在的關(guān)聯(lián)作了定性分析。 隨后，考慮到指標(biāo)取值的不確定性及指標(biāo)偏好間存在的關(guān)聯(lián)，通過(guò)集成區(qū)間數(shù)運(yùn)算和模糊測(cè)度理論定義了IVGAI算子，研究了該算子的相關(guān)性質(zhì)，并基于IVGAI算子和II距離函數(shù)構(gòu)建了基于IVTI方法的多指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)模型。通過(guò)案例分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，基于IVTI方法的多指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)模型更具有合理性、現(xiàn)實(shí)性與通用性。 最后，基于常權(quán)和變權(quán)IVTI方法對(duì)江蘇省新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用研究。其中常權(quán)IVTI方法評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示江蘇省最適合發(fā)展的是核電（0.781），其次分別是生物質(zhì)發(fā)電（0.262）和風(fēng)電（0.227），最后是光伏電力（0.173）。而從變權(quán)角度分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，指標(biāo)權(quán)重的設(shè)置對(duì)新能源發(fā)電績(jī)效最終評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果具有較大的影響，江蘇在進(jìn)行新能源電力投資決策時(shí)，應(yīng)更好結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)丶夹g(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境及社會(huì)等各方面的實(shí)際情況，充分考慮各利益相關(guān)方的意見(jiàn)，選取最為有利的指標(biāo)偏好方案。
[Abstract]:Due to the decrease of fossil energy and the impact of environmental pollution and climate change, it has become a worldwide consensus to develop new energy and electricity. However, different countries have different characteristics in new energy resources, technology, environment and society, and each kind of new energy power has its own advantages and disadvantages. How to determine the key areas of new energy and power development under the condition of certain funds, policies and technologies, so as to make the new energy and power development more sustainable, has become a widespread concern in various regions. Based on the above problems, this paper constructs a new energy generation performance evaluation index system, studies the multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method, and discusses the performance evaluation of new energy generation in Jiangsu Province. First of all, based on the construction principle of performance evaluation index system of new energy generation, this paper selects technology efficiency, safety, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, electricity cost, carbon dioxide emission reduction from four aspects of technology, economy, environment and society. Land use, the number of jobs provided and the average annual power of the Internet are 9 secondary indicators, and qualitative analysis is made on the relationship between the index preferences. Then, considering the uncertainty of index value and the correlation between index preference, the IVGAI operator is defined by integrating interval number operation and fuzzy measure theory, and the related properties of the operator are studied. A multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method is constructed based on IVGAI operator and II distance function. The case study shows that the multi-index evaluation model based on IVTI method is more reasonable, realistic and universal. Finally, the performance of new energy generation in Jiangsu Province is studied based on constant weight and variable weight IVTI methods. The evaluation results of constant weight IVTI method show that the most suitable for development in Jiangsu Province is nuclear power 0.781g, followed by biomass power generation 0.262) and wind power 0.227, and photovoltaic power 0.173. From the point of view of variable weight, it is found that the setting of index weight has a great influence on the final evaluation results of new energy generation performance, and Jiangsu should better combine local technology and economy in the investment decision of new energy and power generation. According to the actual situation of environment and society, and considering the opinions of all stakeholders, the most favorable index preference scheme is selected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.61

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