本文選題：鐵礦 + 海外開發(fā)　； 參考：《江西理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本論文來源于教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金項目“重要礦產(chǎn)資源海外開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險評價技術(shù)研究”（項目編號：12YJA790208）。本文以海外礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)投資環(huán)境評價為研究主線，在投資環(huán)境評價理論及國內(nèi)外研究進(jìn)展的基礎(chǔ)上，以鐵礦資源為例利用變權(quán)理論與方法對海外礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)投資環(huán)境進(jìn)行評價。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容及結(jié)論如下： 闡述了選題背景以及研究的理論意義和實(shí)際意義。全面綜述了投資環(huán)境的理論基礎(chǔ)、傳統(tǒng)投資環(huán)境的評價方法及投資環(huán)境評價的國內(nèi)外研究進(jìn)展，并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出以變權(quán)理論為主的研究方法和技術(shù)路線，豐富了傳統(tǒng)的投資環(huán)境評價方法。 以我國粗鋼產(chǎn)量、我國生鐵產(chǎn)量和我國GDP增長率為驅(qū)動變量，建立了我國鐵礦資源需求情景數(shù)學(xué)模型，利用BP軟件對模型進(jìn)行了測算，得出我國鐵礦資源在2013~2025年的進(jìn)口依賴程度處于25%~35%之間。 系統(tǒng)分析了影響海外鐵礦資源開發(fā)的主要因素，包括政治法規(guī)環(huán)境、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、礦業(yè)市場環(huán)境、社會文化環(huán)境和自然資源環(huán)境。根據(jù)影響海外鐵礦資源開發(fā)的主要因素，構(gòu)建了海外鐵礦資源開發(fā)投資環(huán)境評價指標(biāo)體系，利用專家調(diào)查法確定了各個評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，然后根據(jù)指標(biāo)數(shù)值確定了指標(biāo)分級規(guī)則和評價等級集合。 確定了14個鐵礦資源比較豐富的國家為評價對象，詳細(xì)分析了所評價國家各個指標(biāo)的情況，建立了常權(quán)和變權(quán)評價模型，并對所評價國家的政治法規(guī)環(huán)境、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、礦業(yè)市場環(huán)境、社會文化環(huán)境和自然資源環(huán)境等分別進(jìn)行了評價，最后對被評價國家鐵礦資源開發(fā)投資環(huán)境進(jìn)行了綜合評價。 研究結(jié)果表明：擁有極端指標(biāo)的國家在受懲罰變權(quán)后，其評價結(jié)果會發(fā)生變化，在進(jìn)行海外鐵礦資源開發(fā)區(qū)位選擇時應(yīng)注意東道國極端指標(biāo)的影響。根據(jù)評價結(jié)果提出了海外鐵礦資源開發(fā)的首選區(qū)、次選區(qū)和慎選區(qū)，評價結(jié)果和實(shí)際較為吻合，因此，，所建立的模型具有較好的理論價值和實(shí)際應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:This paper comes from the project of the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund, "Research on risk Assessment Technology for overseas Development of important Mineral Resources" (Project No.: 12YJA790208). In this paper, the investment environment evaluation of overseas mineral resources development is the main line of study, on the basis of investment environment evaluation theory and research progress at home and abroad, Taking iron ore resources as an example, the investment environment of overseas mineral resources development is evaluated by using variable weight theory and method. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: The background of the topic and the theoretical and practical significance of the research are expounded. This paper summarizes the theoretical basis of the investment environment, the evaluation methods of the traditional investment environment and the research progress of the investment environment evaluation at home and abroad, and puts forward the research methods and technical routes based on the variable weight theory. Has enriched the traditional investment environment appraisal method. Taking crude steel output, pig iron output and GDP growth rate as driving variables, a scenario mathematical model of iron ore resource demand in China is established, and the model is calculated by using BP software. It is concluded that the import dependence of iron ore resources in China from 2013 to 2025 is between 25% and 35%. The main factors affecting the development of overseas iron ore resources are systematically analyzed, including political and regulatory environment, macroeconomic environment, mining market environment, social and cultural environment and natural resource environment. According to the main factors affecting the development of overseas iron ore resources, the evaluation index system of investment environment for overseas iron ore resources development is constructed, and the weight of each evaluation index is determined by the method of expert investigation. Then, according to the index value, the index classification rule and evaluation grade set are determined. 14 countries with rich iron ore resources are selected as the evaluation objects, the situation of each index of the country evaluated is analyzed in detail, the evaluation models of constant power and variable weight are established, and the political and regulatory environment and macroeconomic environment of the countries evaluated are also given. The mining market environment, social and cultural environment and natural resources environment were evaluated respectively. Finally, the investment environment of iron ore resources in the evaluated country was comprehensively evaluated. The results show that the evaluation results of countries with extreme indicators will change after being punished, and the influence of extreme indicators of host country should be paid attention to when selecting the location of overseas iron ore resources development. According to the evaluation results, the preferred area, sub-district and careful selection area for the exploitation of overseas iron ore resources are put forward. The evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation. Therefore, the established model has good theoretical value and practical application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F416.1

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