本文選題：國際原油價(jià)格 + 非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)型投入產(chǎn)出模型��； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，國際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)劇烈，僅2008一年，原油價(jià)格就由2007年底的100美元/桶漲至近150美元/桶之后在年末跌至40美元/桶，對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了不小的影響。我國正處于工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期，對(duì)原油等原材料呈剛性需求，由于資源稟賦以及需求增長(zhǎng)速度過快而導(dǎo)致我國原油供給缺口越來越大，對(duì)原油進(jìn)口依存度越來越高，自2009年突破警戒線50%之后一直有上漲趨勢(shì)。較高的原油進(jìn)口依存度，意味著國內(nèi)原油市場(chǎng)對(duì)國際原油市場(chǎng)的依賴較深，較深的依賴也將意味著受國際原油價(jià)格的影響越大。在如此高的原油對(duì)外依存度情景下，我國各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的原油依賴性是怎樣的，原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)究竟會(huì)對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響，所造成的影響是通過什么途徑產(chǎn)生的，，這些都是是值得關(guān)注并且澄清的科學(xué)問題。 本文基于現(xiàn)今我國高原油對(duì)外依存度的背景，對(duì)國際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的影響進(jìn)行了研究。本文運(yùn)用非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)型投入產(chǎn)出方法，將進(jìn)口原油和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)原油區(qū)分開來，對(duì)我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門的進(jìn)口原油依賴程度進(jìn)行了分析。國內(nèi)的一次能源生產(chǎn)部門諸如煤炭開采和選洗業(yè)對(duì)于進(jìn)口原油的依賴程度并不高；而二次能源生產(chǎn)部門，各類非能源類的采掘業(yè)、金屬冶煉及金屬壓延業(yè)以及化學(xué)工業(yè)都對(duì)進(jìn)口原油表現(xiàn)出了較高的依賴性，這種依賴性通過生產(chǎn)投入關(guān)系而進(jìn)一步影響到輕工業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)。同時(shí)對(duì)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行了分析，并結(jié)合非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)型投入產(chǎn)出價(jià)格模型的分析，探討了國際原油價(jià)格對(duì)我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)部門產(chǎn)出價(jià)格的影響，繪制了價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響圖。最后，本文編制了2007國家宏觀社會(huì)核算矩陣以及8部門的分解的社會(huì)核算矩陣，并在前文分析的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了8部門的國際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)部門影響的CGE模型，設(shè)定了不同的原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)情景進(jìn)一步探討國際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門產(chǎn)出的影響，并模擬了對(duì)資源類產(chǎn)業(yè)增收不同幅度從價(jià)資源稅的情景，通過分析得出了一些相關(guān)結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the price of international crude oil has fluctuated sharply. In only 2008 years, the price of crude oil rose from $100 per barrel to nearly $150 per barrel at the end of 2007, and then fell to $40 per barrel at the end of the year, which has had a great impact on the world economy and the Chinese economy.Our country is in the key period of industrialization and rapid development of urbanization. There is a rigid demand for crude oil and other raw materials. The shortage of crude oil supply is getting bigger and bigger because of the rapid growth of resource endowment and demand.Increasing dependence on crude oil imports has been rising since 2009, when it broke through the alert line of 50%.The higher dependence on crude oil import means that the domestic crude oil market depends heavily on the international crude oil market, and the deeper dependence will also mean the greater the impact of the international crude oil price.Under such a high degree of dependence on foreign crude oil, what is the dependence on crude oil in various industrial sectors in China, and what kind of impact will the fluctuation of crude oil prices have on the economic and industrial sectors of our country?These are scientific issues that deserve attention and clarification.Based on the background of high crude oil dependence, this paper studies the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on China's industrial sector.By using the non-competitive input-output method, this paper distinguishes the imported crude oil from the domestic crude oil production, and analyzes the degree of dependence of the imported crude oil on the various sectors of the national economy of our country.Domestic primary energy production sectors, such as coal mining and washing industries, are not highly dependent on imported crude oil, while secondary energy production sectors, all types of non-energy extractive industries,Metal smelting, metal calender industry and chemical industry are highly dependent on imported crude oil, which further affects light industry and service industry through the relationship of production and input.At the same time, the paper analyzes the industrial correlation degree of our country, and combines the analysis of the non-competitive input-output price model, discusses the influence of international crude oil price on the output price of our national economy, and draws the chart of price fluctuation.Finally, this paper compiles the 2007 national macro-social accounting matrix and the decomposed social accounting matrix of eight sectors, and constructs the CGE model of the impact of the international crude oil price fluctuation on the industrial sector of China on the basis of the previous analysis.Different scenarios of crude oil price fluctuation are set up to further explore the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the output of industrial sector, and the scenarios of increasing resource tax on resource industry by different ranges are simulated, and some relevant conclusions are obtained through analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F416.22;F426.22

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