本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源消費總量 電力消費量 控制目標區(qū)域分解 信息熵 基尼系數(shù)　出處：《華北電力大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：能源是經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。改革開放以來,我國能源工業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,而能源發(fā)展和資源、環(huán)境之間的矛盾也日益顯現(xiàn)。在能源供給日趨緊張、資源環(huán)境約束加劇的背景下,節(jié)能降耗、控制能源消費總量是經(jīng)濟社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要保障。能源消費總量控制的手段主要包括市場手段和行政手段,將全國目標分解到各省區(qū)是現(xiàn)階段我國實施能源消費總量控制行之有效的行政手段,也是我國“十二五”規(guī)劃綱要確定的能源發(fā)展和改革任務之一。電力消費是終端能源消費的重要組成部分,控制電力消費量可以間接實現(xiàn)控制能源消費總量,科學合理的進行電力消費量控制目標區(qū)域分解是實施電力消費量控制的重要前提。 本文綜合考慮我國各地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的差異,建立了體現(xiàn)公平性并具有可操作性的電力消費量區(qū)域分解方案。首先,本文介紹了電力消費量區(qū)域分解的原則,分析了電力消費量影響因素,并根據(jù)影響因素選擇表征指標,確立了電力消費量區(qū)域分解的指標體系；其次,本文將熵值法和基于時間維度的動態(tài)分析方法引入模型,構(gòu)建了基于信息熵的電力消費量區(qū)域分解模型,同時以當前電力消費量為初始分配,應用基尼系數(shù)優(yōu)化調(diào)整等方法建立了基于基尼系數(shù)法的電力消費量區(qū)域分解模型；最后,本文對兩種電力消費量區(qū)域分解模型進行了算例分析,將“十二五”末全國電力消費量控制目標分解至各地區(qū),并比較分析兩種方法的差異性和適用性,結(jié)果表明基于信息熵的分解法在反映不同地區(qū)差異性方面更具優(yōu)勢,更適合在現(xiàn)階段我國各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展差異較大的情況下應用。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for economic and social development. Since the reform and opening up, the energy industry in China has developed rapidly, and the contradiction between energy development, resources and environment has become increasingly apparent. Under the background of intensified resource and environmental constraints, energy conservation and consumption reduction, energy consumption control is an important guarantee for sustainable economic and social development. The means of total energy consumption control mainly include market means and administrative means. It is an effective administrative means for our country to implement the total energy consumption control at the present stage by breaking down the national goals to the provinces and regions. It is also the energy development and reform Ren Wuzhi defined in the outline of China's 12th Five-Year Plan. Electricity consumption is an important part of the end energy consumption, and the control of electricity consumption can indirectly control the total energy consumption. Scientific and reasonable decomposition of power consumption control target area is an important prerequisite for the implementation of power consumption control. Considering the differences of economic and social development in various regions of China, this paper establishes a scheme of regional decomposition of electricity consumption which embodies fairness and is operable. Firstly, this paper introduces the principle of regional decomposition of electricity consumption. The influencing factors of electricity consumption are analyzed, and the index system of power consumption area decomposition is established according to the choice of representative index. Secondly, the entropy method and the dynamic analysis method based on time dimension are introduced into the model. A regional decomposition model of electricity consumption based on information entropy is constructed. At the same time, with the current electricity consumption as the initial distribution, the Gini coefficient optimization adjustment method is used to establish the regional decomposition model of electricity consumption based on the Gini coefficient method. Finally, In this paper, two regional decomposition models of electric power consumption are analyzed, and the national power consumption control target is decomposed into different regions at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, and the difference and applicability of the two methods are compared and analyzed. The results show that the decomposition method based on information entropy has more advantages in reflecting the differences of different regions, and is more suitable for application in the present situation where the economic and social development of different regions in China is quite different.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61

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