本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 物元可拓模型 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來城市經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長，電網(wǎng)投資建設(shè)加速，致使電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避成為電網(wǎng)企業(yè)自身發(fā)展與保障城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要研究課題，建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)迫在眉睫。當(dāng)前關(guān)于電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究多集中在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素處理方法和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方面，對(duì)于城市快速發(fā)展對(duì)電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)考慮不足，電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警也缺少有效工具。因此，科學(xué)合理地構(gòu)建城市電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 論文在查閱大量文獻(xiàn)資料及實(shí)地調(diào)研基礎(chǔ)上，著重研究了城市發(fā)展與電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃間的關(guān)系，對(duì)投融資、信貸、擔(dān)保等金融政策不健全對(duì)電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了重點(diǎn)分析，，構(gòu)建了電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系；針對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素特點(diǎn)，用不同分布函數(shù)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素發(fā)生概率進(jìn)行了計(jì)量，在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了基于物元可拓理論的城市電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型和基于全壽命周期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利潤的評(píng)價(jià)方法，將這幾種方法結(jié)合起來作為電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法；基于構(gòu)建的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)框架、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警識(shí)別和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)，設(shè)計(jì)了電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；利用開發(fā)的電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)軟件，以康巴什新區(qū)電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃10kV中壓配電方案為例運(yùn)行，參照預(yù)警得到的綜合評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)和財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平，結(jié)合康巴什新區(qū)發(fā)展的特殊性，從電網(wǎng)公司和政府部門兩個(gè)角度提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范策略。 實(shí)證說明論文所建立的指標(biāo)、模型與預(yù)警系統(tǒng)具有可行性，在后續(xù)研究中會(huì)對(duì)該系統(tǒng)不斷完善，以期對(duì)電網(wǎng)企業(yè)提供更好的參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of urban economy and the acceleration of power grid investment and construction, the risk avoidance of power network planning has become an important research topic for the development of power grid enterprises and the protection of urban economic development. It is urgent to establish a risk early warning system. The current research on the risk of power network planning is mostly focused on the risk factor treatment and risk evaluation, and the risk caused by the rapid development of the city to the power network planning is not considered enough. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct the urban power network planning risk early warning system scientifically and reasonably. On the basis of consulting a lot of literature and field investigation, this paper focuses on the relationship between urban development and power network planning, and focuses on the risk of imperfect financial policies, such as investment and financing, credit and guarantee, to power network planning. According to the characteristics of different risk factors, the probability of occurrence of risk elements is measured with different distribution functions. On this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of urban power network planning risk based on matter-element extension theory and the evaluation method of risk profit based on the whole life cycle are established, and these methods are combined as the power network planning risk evaluation method. Based on the framework of early warning system, risk early warning identification and risk early warning evaluation system, a power network planning risk early warning system is designed, and the software of power network planning risk early warning system is developed. Taking the power network planning of Kangbashi New area as an example, the 10kV medium voltage distribution scheme is operated, and the comprehensive evaluation risk grade and financial risk level obtained by early warning are referred to, combined with the particularity of the development of Kangbashi New area. Put forward the corresponding risk prevention strategy from two angles of grid company and government department. The empirical results show that the index, model and early warning system established in this paper are feasible, and will be improved continuously in the follow-up study, in order to provide a better reference for power grid enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.24;F426.61

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