本文關(guān)鍵詞：ANP模糊綜合評價(jià)在盤道溝風(fēng)電場的應(yīng)用研究　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 風(fēng)電場 綜合評價(jià) 網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法 模糊綜合評價(jià)

【摘要】：我國的風(fēng)力發(fā)電事業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛。2012年6月我國累計(jì)風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量達(dá)到5258萬千瓦,取代美國成為世界第一風(fēng)電大國。按照國家風(fēng)電發(fā)展十二五規(guī)劃,2015年我國風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)裝機(jī)容量將達(dá)到1億千瓦,2020年達(dá)到2億千瓦。與風(fēng)力發(fā)電規(guī)模的迅猛發(fā)展相比,我國對于風(fēng)力發(fā)電工程項(xiàng)目評價(jià)的相關(guān)研究還處于起步階段,尚且缺乏一個(gè)概況性強(qiáng)的風(fēng)電工程項(xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)系統(tǒng)體系。所以,建立一個(gè)全面合理、具有參考價(jià)值且符合實(shí)際運(yùn)用情況的風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合評價(jià)體系是目前風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行投資需要解決的問題。本文在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,將沽源盤道溝風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目作為實(shí)證研究的分析對象,對風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)方法進(jìn)行研究。對常用工程項(xiàng)目綜合評價(jià)理論進(jìn)行分析介紹,并根據(jù)風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn),確定綜合評價(jià)的原則,選取網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法、模糊綜合評價(jià)法、德爾菲法等做為風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)方法。本文對影響綜合評價(jià)結(jié)果的各因素進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析,建立了風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。針對評價(jià)體系中各指標(biāo)間的相互影響關(guān)系,將定量指標(biāo)和定性指標(biāo)相結(jié)合,歸納總結(jié)出主要影響因子,建立起由項(xiàng)目建設(shè)條件、運(yùn)行技術(shù)水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、節(jié)能降耗以及環(huán)境影響五個(gè)方面組成的本工程項(xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。鑒于構(gòu)建的風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系包括定量指標(biāo)和定性指標(biāo)的特點(diǎn)以及評價(jià)指標(biāo)之間具有相互影響、相互依賴的關(guān)系,本文選用網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法和模糊綜合評價(jià)方法相結(jié)合的分析模型,詳細(xì)介紹了綜合評價(jià)涉及到的評價(jià)者、評價(jià)對象、評價(jià)目的、評價(jià)指標(biāo)、指標(biāo)權(quán)重和評價(jià)方法等諸多方面因素。然后,闡釋了綜合評價(jià)的數(shù)學(xué)模型及其建立步驟。最后,本文對盤道溝風(fēng)電場項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了綜合評價(jià),評價(jià)結(jié)果表明：對于沽源盤道溝風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目綜合評價(jià)結(jié)果為較好,且從整體上看該風(fēng)電工程項(xiàng)目的影響要優(yōu)于過程和效益,風(fēng)電具有一定的環(huán)境價(jià)值、社會價(jià)值和經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值,且其環(huán)境價(jià)值和社會價(jià)值要大于其經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值。本文所建立的風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目綜合評價(jià)系統(tǒng)是在定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對風(fēng)電場工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行定量化、模型化的綜合評價(jià),具有簡潔性、適用性、實(shí)用性和可操作性等特點(diǎn),不但全面、有效地反映了該工程項(xiàng)目的基本特征,而且還能較客觀中肯地評估出該工程項(xiàng)目的總體價(jià)值水平。實(shí)際工程項(xiàng)目案例表明,本文所建立的綜合評價(jià)方法合理有效,能夠?yàn)榇祟愴?xiàng)目的綜合評價(jià)提供一定的科學(xué)依據(jù)和參考。
[Abstract]:The cause of wind power generation in China is developing rapidly. In June 2012, China's cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 52 million 580 thousand kilowatts, replacing the United States to become the world's largest wind power country. According to the plan of national wind power development in 12th Five-Year, in 2015, the capacity of wind power grid installed in China will reach 100 million kilowatts and 200 million kilowatts in 2020. Compared with the rapid development of wind power generation, the research on wind power project evaluation in our country is still at the initial stage, and there is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation system of wind power projects. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive and reasonable evaluation system for wind power projects with reference value and practical application is the problem to be solved in wind power projects. On the basis of theoretical research, Guyuan will take a ditch wind farm project as the analysis object of empirical research, research on comprehensive evaluation method of wind power project. The general evaluation theory of common engineering projects is introduced and analyzed. According to the characteristics of wind farm projects, the principles of comprehensive evaluation are determined, and the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Delphi method are selected as the comprehensive evaluation methods of wind farm projects. In this paper, the factors affecting the comprehensive evaluation results are analyzed in detail, and the evaluation index system of the wind farm project is set up. According to the mutual influence between the various indicators in the evaluation system, the combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators, summarized the main influencing factors, establish a comprehensive evaluation of the project consists of five aspects of the project construction conditions, operation technology, economic efficiency, energy saving and environmental impact index system. In view of the interactive relationship and mutual dependence between characteristics of the comprehensive evaluation index system of wind farm project engineering construction including quantitative index and qualitative index and evaluation index, analysis model analysis the network hierarchy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, introduced in detail the factors related to the comprehensive evaluation, evaluation object, evaluation purpose, evaluation index, index weight and evaluation method. Then, the mathematical model of comprehensive evaluation and the steps of its establishment are explained. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive evaluation of the winding channel wind farm project, the evaluation results show that: for the comprehensive evaluation of Guyuan Bando ditch wind farm project results is better, and the overall effect of the wind power project is superior to the process and benefits of wind power has a certain environmental value, social value and economic value. And the environmental value and social value than its economic value. The wind farm project comprehensive evaluation system established in this paper is on the basis of qualitative analysis, comprehensive evaluation of quantitative and modeling of wind power project, with simplicity, applicability, practicality and operability characteristics, not only comprehensively and effectively reflect the basic characteristics of the project. And can objectively assess the overall value of the level of engineering project. The actual project case shows that the comprehensive evaluation method established in this paper is reasonable and effective, which can provide certain scientific basis and reference for the comprehensive evaluation of such projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F426.61

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